979
FXUS65 KPSR 142233
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
333 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The unseasonably warm weather will continue for one more day
  across much of Arizona with highs in the low to mid 80s this
  afternoon.

- The first in a series of three weather systems will arrive over
  the weekend bringing widespread accumulating rainfall but
  little impacts.

- Temperatures are expected to cool well below normal by Sunday
  and last through all of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will prevail as several weather
systems are expected to move through the region over the next
week with the first system moving through this weekend. Current
satellite WV imagery shows a low pressure system situated off the
coast of California with the low center near the central
California coast. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloud
cover associated with this weather system streaming across
southern California this afternoon while most clear skies prevail
further to the east across south-central Arizona where the
influence of upper level ridging is still in place. Given the
continued influence of the upper level ridge, temperatures across
the Arizona lower deserts remain well above normal this afternoon
as temperatures climb into the mid 80s.

Cooler, wetter weather will then set in heading into this weekend as
the low shifts further to the south/southeast. Through tonight, a
few light showers will be possible across portions of southeast
California before chances ramp up for Saturday. The best rain
chances across southeast California will exist Saturday morning
through Saturday afternoon with hi-res guidance indicating several
bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing through the
area. Storm total rainfall amounts are forecast to climb upwards of
around 0.50" across southeast California with some areas potentially
receiving over an inch of rainfall, such as portions of Joshua Tree
National Park. A Flood Watch remains in effect for western portions
of JTNP Saturday morning through Saturday night and has also been
expanded to include nearby flood prone areas such as Box Canyon
Road. Elsewhere across southeast California, any embedded
thunderstorms that develop may lead to locally heavy rainfall
capable of producing isolated flooding.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the main low is forecast to move
northeastward through central California into Nevada with a
secondary shortwave trough quickly moving across southern California
into Arizona. Hi-res guidance show increasing shower activity
developing Saturday night through Sunday morning with enough
instability for a few isolated thunderstorms. Following the passage
of the secondary shortwave, rain chances quickly drop off going into
Sunday evening. Overall storm totals across the Arizona lower
deserts are forecast to generally range between 0.25-0.75" with
higher amounts upwards of 0.50-1.00" across the higher terrain north
and east of Phoenix. Locally heavier amounts will be possible with
any thunderstorm activity that may materialize.

Aside from the wet weather this weekend, much cooler temperatures
will also set in this weekend. Temperatures will begin to trend
downward more with highs cooling into the upper 70s to low 80s
across south-central Arizona to the upper 60s to low 70s across
southeast California. Following the passage of the cold front,
temperatures Sunday will be much cooler area wide with lower desert
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Next week is still shaping up to be an active weather week with
the second weather system impacting our region Monday night
through at least Tuesday and possibly even well into Wednesday.
Model uncertainty is still fairly high with the exact timing and
the progression of this second low pressure system, but it is a
nearly certainty it will impact our region with fairly decent
chances for accumulating rainfall across the bulk of the area.
This next system will be similar in size to this weekend`s system,
but moisture levels will be a good deal lower. However, it is
slated to be a noticeably colder system which will somewhat offset
the lower moisture levels. Potential QPF amounts will be
considerably lower than this weekend`s system across southeast
California due to a northwesterly trajectory, but much of Arizona
may see similar rainfall amounts. Based on the current timing, the
best rainfall chances will probably fall on Tuesday, but that
very well could change given it is four days off. Even though the
system will be colder, snow levels are still expected to remain
quite high with levels mostly staying above 6500 feet. For now,
models favor the system to eventually exit the region by late
Wednesday or Thursday with a third weather system following behind
by around next Friday and/or Saturday.

Temperatures next week are likely to stay fairly stable given the
active weather and elevated humidities lasting all week. Forecast
highs do dip more into the 60s by the middle part of next week
with readings likely staying below 70 degrees through the rest of
next week. Overnight temperatures should stay relatively mild due
to the fairly persistent cloud cover and higher humidities with
lows mostly ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1755Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will continue to follow light and diurnal trends through
Saturday morning while mid and high-cloud cover begin to slowly
increase. Lower CIGS (7-10k ft) will begin to approach the region
toward the back end of the forecast window which could result in
some operational impacts at KPHX. Some VCSH cannot be ruled during
this timeframe, but rain chances are too low as of now to include
any mention in the TAF. Diurnal wind trends may persist into the
next TAF period, but directions will be highly conditional on
whether or not those showers develop.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

The main aviation concern during the next 24 hours will be the
potential for showers resulting in low CIGs and reduced VIS.
During this TAF period, these concerns will be focused over KIPL,
where shower activity will begin to increase through Saturday
morning. Although the chances for MVFR CIGs are too low (<20%) to
warrant mention in the TAF at this time, cloud bases dipping to or
below this threshold cannot be ruled out with the best timing
being from 15Z to the end of the period. As for KBLH, little to
no impacts are expected during most of the TAF window as shower
activity in the vicinity will increase after 15Z Saturday.
Even as the best rainfall timing for both terminals looks to be
Saturday morning, it is not out of the question to see some rouge
activity through this afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large weather system will slowly move through the region
through the weekend bringing cooler temperatures, increased
humidities, and widespread rainfall. Rain chances will increase
across the region this weekend with widespread wetting rains likely
for Saturday for the western districts and on Sunday for the
eastern districts. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible,
which may produce locally heavier rainfall amounts. MinRHs will
also rise to 40-70% over the weekend. Expect periodic breeziness
over the weekend. The active weather will continue through next
week with another weather system affecting the area by Tuesday and
another later in the week. Expect below normal temperatures and
elevated humidities for all of next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
     CAZ560-568.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Kuhlman