911
FXUS65 KPSR 022001
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
101 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions are expected through the
  remainder of the work week.

- Transient low pressure will help generate some afternoon
  breeziness for the Lower CO River Valley Wednesday.

- After a period of near to slightly below normal temperatures,
  day-to-day afternoon highs will gradually warm this weekend
  into the start of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Current objective analysis reveals quasi-zonal flow stretching over
the Desert Southwest while a broad and highly amplified ridge
encompasses a good portion of the eastern Pacific. Embedded in the
broader flow pattern is a positively tilted shortwave trough, which
will be discussed shortly, that is diving southward along the
fringes of a north-south oriented branch of the jet stream. In the
mean time, the quiet flow pattern currently in place will yield
tranquil conditions for the remainder of today, while northwesterly
flow aloft funnels some relatively cooler air into the region, but
day-to-day high temperatures compared to yesterday will only be a
degree or two cooler.

Heading into tonight and Wednesday, the aforementioned disturbance
will continue its southward toward our area but its influence should
barley be noticed before it quickly exits towards the Plains by
Thursday. The most noticeable impacts (relatively speaking) will be
a continuation of regional cooling and some breezy conditions for
the Colorado River Valley during the afternoon hours. Based on this
troughs continental trajectory, moisture will be very limited and
forecast trends reflect this as PoPs for our forecast area have been
gradually declining over the past few days. The most favored spots
to see precipitation will be confined to the Rim and White
Mountains, with far eastern Gila County potentially seeing an
isolated sprinkle or light shower. Can`t completely rule out some
snowflakes here and there for the highest elevations. As mentioned
above, this system will clear the region by Thursday, bringing dry
and tranquil conditions back into the forecast as afternoon high
temps remain mostly steady from the day before.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...
The weather pattern going into the weekend and likely through all
of next week depicts a dominant ridge stalling out across the
eastern Pacific and much of the Western U.S., including the Desert
Southwest. The core of the ridge, with H5 heights as high as
585-588dm (above 90th percentile of climatology), is forecast to
stay off the West Coast, but our region will still largely be
dominated by the ridge over the weekend and likely for much of
next week. There is still some uncertainty with a passing trough
well to our north early next week, but this disturbance is likely
to only temporarily flatten the ridge. H5 heights across the
Desert Southwest should rise to between 576-580dm this weekend,
staying there through early next week before potentially peaking
between between 579-582dm at some point during the mid to latter
part of next week.

Under the ridge, we can expect dry conditions to prevail through
most if not all of next week. NBM forecast temperatures are shown
to gradually rise this weekend, likely peaking into the slightly
above normal range of 69-73 degrees by Sunday. The warming trend
should continue through the first half of next week with daytime
highs reaching into the mid 70s with even some potential (25-50%)
of some spots topping out in the upper 70s at some point later
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1724Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under some passing FEW-SCT high
clouds are expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind
pattern will exhibit typical diurnal tendencies with speeds
generally aob 7 kts along with extended periods of light
variability to calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region this
week with a second dry weather system passing mainly to the north
of the region Wednesday into Thursday. This system will however
bring another round of breezy conditions across the Lower CO River
Valley Wednesday and Thursday with light winds prevailing across
the eastern districts. Humidities this week will stay elevated
with MinRHs mostly ranging between 25-35% much of the time, with
good to very good overnight recoveries. Near to slightly below
normal temperatures are forecast through Friday before a warming
trend pushes temperatures above normal by early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman