561
FXUS65 KPSR 021049
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
349 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly sunny skies today, but flooding of area creeks,
  streams, and rivers will continue today, following the rain over
  the past few days.

- Flooding in some of the major waterways like the Salt River may
  persist through the week.

- Dry and seasonal weather conditions are expected through the
  next seven days, with lower desert high temperatures in the
  seventies to around eighty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Water vapor satellite and surface observations early this morning
showed dry air was quickly spreading across the region, as the
upper level trough was ejecting eastward through the Four Corners.
Rain showers were also finally coming to an end across south-
central AZ. A lot of water was transported in and squeezed out of
the atmosphere over the past 3 days. Latest 3-day measured
rainfall and radar estimates show a large area east and northeast
of Phoenix, in the higher terrain, received 5-7 inches and a few
spots reached 8 inches. Even though the has ended there is still
a lot of runoff moving through the water systems across AZ.
Several USGS and flood control streamflow gauges early this
morning were still above designated action/alarm stages and some
were in minor to moderate flood stage. Many areal and river flood
warnings were still in effect and will remain in effect through
most of this morning. Unlike Winter and Spring snowmelt runoff
following a rain event, runoff following this rain event should
subside more quickly. Still, runoff in some of the major waterways
and watersheds, like the Salt and Verde systems, will take
longer to subside. Possibly even most of the week. Salt River
Project this morning around 3 AM MST was still releasing a very
high volume of water from Bartlett Dam into the Verde River, over
60000 cfs, and from Granite Reef Dam into the Salt River, over
34000 cfs. Impacts on the Salt River downstream of Tempe Town Lake
will likely develop today as runoff continues. Recreating in the
Verde and Salt rivers will be very dangerous and is strongly
discouraged. There have been multiple fatalities from recreation
with similar flows in the past. Continue to heed all road closures
as will and do not attempt to cross flooded roads.

Besides the lingering flooding, it will be a very pleasant Fall
day, with high temperatures this afternoon forecast to reach the
low to middle 70s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light
across south-central AZ and there will be some northerly breezes
up to 15-25 mph along the lower Colorado River Valley this
afternoon. Dry conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday and
temperatures will gradually warm. A shortwave ridge will pass
over the area tomorrow between the departing upper level trough
and another Pacific low. Model guidance keeps this next Pacific
low on a west-east trajectory through UT and CO on Wednesday. Just
about all this transient low will do to the local area is suppress
heights and keep temperatures from warming more quickly. High
temperatures Wednesday will be a bit closer to seasonal levels,
but still ~5 degrees below normal, with lower deserts reaching the
middle 70s to near 80 degrees. Morning temperatures the next few
days will be seasonally cool, mostly in the 50s across the lower
deserts and 40s in higher elevation communities and some of the
typically cooler lower desert valley spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The long term forecast remains dry and seasonal. There is now
much better confidence in the late week and weekend forecast,
which favors ridging building in across the West and a weak cutoff
low forming over the Pacific west of Baja California. Weak
troughing looks to drag across the local area Friday into Saturday
ahead of the building ridge. Previous forecasts supported slight
rain chances with this trough, but this trough now looks
completely dry and latest NBM PoPs are 5% or less across the
region. These are also the only PoPs in the 7-day forecast. Plenty
of time to dry out fallowing all the rain. Temperatures during
the second half of the week will remain steady near to slightly
below normal and then heading into the weekend temperatures are
likely to trend warmer as the ridging builds into the west. Most
lower deserts may see high temperatures return to the low and
possibly even mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1030Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;

CIGs and -SHRA have shifted east of the Phoenix airspace and will
continue to diminish in coverage through the morning. FEW low to
midlevel decks may persist with some cumulus development over the
mountains this afternoon. Winds will favor a westerly component
through early this evening at KPHX, however, winds will become light
and likely VRB for a period this morning before reverting to the
west in the afternoon. A more typical easterly diurnal wind shift is
then anticipated this evening under mostly clear skies. A TEMPO
reduction in sfc VIS due to fog developing overnight into early
Tuesday morning cannot be ruled out at the southern terminals, with
the best probabilities of MVFR or lower VIS at KIWA (30%) followed
by KPHX (20%).

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours under
mostly clear skies. Winds will favor northwesterly directions for
much of the day. Speeds are expected to remain AOB 10 kts for the
most part, however, some gusts into the mid to upper teens cannot be
ruled out at KBLH this afternoon. Extended periods of light (AOB 6
kts) and VRB winds are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lingering floodwater runoff in area creeks, streams, and rivers is
likely to continue through at least today. Otherwise, rain has
ended and dry seasonal conditions can be expected through the
next 7 days. Saturated grounds will help keep surface humidity
levels somewhat elevated. Afternoon minimum RHs today will be
around 50-60% across AZ and 25-35% across southeast CA. Despite
gradual drying through the week, the minimum RHs will only fall to
around 35-45% across AZ and 20-30% across southeast CA. Overnight
recoveries will remain good through the week, with around 60-80%
max RHs most nights. Winds through the next 7 days will mostly
follow typical diurnal trends with light speeds and modest
afternoon upslope gusts. Some breezier north winds may develop
along the lower Colorado River Valley at times, but with only
minor gusts up to 20-25 mph forecast at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flood Watch until 5 AM MST early this morning for AZZ534-537>563.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict