143
FXUS65 KPSR 101933
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1233 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will be common across the region
  over the next several days with some locations flirting with
  record highs heading into the end of the week and into the
  weekend

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail for at least the next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current upper-air analysis shows unseasonably strong high pressure
dominating over the southwestern CONUS, pushing any significant
weather well off to our north. This ridge will be the main feature
for the region through the end of the work week with heights near
or exceeding the 90th percentile (582-585 dm) for this time of
year. The higher heights, indicative of warmer air throughout the
atmospheric column, will translate to well above normal
temperatures at the surface. In fact, the most recent trends have
the ridge slightly stronger than previous model runs so forecasted
temps have ticked up a bit for the next few days. Readings
through the end of the work week for lower desert areas now look
solidly in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with the upper end of that
range now looking more common for Thursday and Friday. In
response to this slightly warmer forecast, probabilities for
record highs being reached or broken have gone up with Phoenix now
having around a 50% chance of at least tying the Friday record
high of 79 degrees set in 2010.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/...
The weather pattern over the weekend and likely through most if
not all of next week will continue to support ridging mostly
dominating across the Southwestern U.S. The ridge to our west is
expected to weaken over the weekend as one or two very weak
shortwave troughs try to undercut or move into the ridge. These
disturbances should lead to the ridge weakening or even pushing
through and then to the east of our region by Sunday or Monday,
but H5 heights are not expected to drop all that much. The near 80
degree daily highs are likely to persist through at least
Saturday and maybe even Sunday before the lower heights bring
highs more into a 74-77 degree range by early next week. The
disruption of the ridge should also result in periods of higher
level clouds moving through the region.

Model guidance shows very good agreement in rebuilding the ridge
again to our west by next Tuesday before moving back over our
region by next Wednesday or Thursday. Both the GEFS and EPS show
mean H5 heights staying between 579-582dm through all of next
week which should keep daytime highs well into the 70s, but
slightly cooler than what we will see over the next couple of
days. Guidance shows no precipitation chances through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1726Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period
under clear skies. Wind tendencies will be very similar to the
past 24 hours with only a brief late afternoon/early evening
switch to the W/NW in the Phoenix metro. Winds will tend to
predominantly favor the W at KIPL and N-NW at KBLH. Extended
periods of variable or calm conditions will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this
week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 8-13
degrees above normal by the end of the week. A dry weather system
toward the middle of next week may enhance winds. Otherwise, winds
will remain light every day and follow diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay above critical levels with
afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-25%, followed by good
overnight recoveries to around 50-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/11  81 (1977)
12/12  79 (2010)
12/13  82 (2010)
12/14  78 (2010)
12/15  79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict