689
FXUS65 KPSR 041114
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
414 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions are expected to continue
  through next week.

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas,
  including southern Gila County, for this morning and tomorrow
  morning.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through the
  end of the workweek before going above normal this weekend, and
  then gradually warming through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early morning upper level water vapor satellite imagery show a
positively tilted long wave trough stretching from Western CONUS
into the Plains. The base of the trough is currently situated off
the west coast of central Baja. There is also a shortwave trough
that move through our region yesterday, its base is currently
straddling the AZ-NM boarder. There is also a high pressure
system situated over the eastern Pacific Ocean. With the shortwave
trough east of our area, dry and tranquil weather conditions
return to the region today and continue into the weekend. This
shortwave helped to bring cooler air into the region. Additionally
the aforementioned broader trough will remain over the Desert
Southwest into the weekend before exiting to the east, which will
help to keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through
at least the end of the workweek.

With the cooler air in place, some higher terrain areas have already
seeing temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s this morning, with a
few hours of cooling left. A Freeze Warning remains in place for
part of southern Gila County, including the Tonto Basin, and
Sunflower, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos areas, through 9 am MST.
Rural lower desert areas have temperatures ranging from the upper
30s to mid 40s with more rural lower desert areas seeing
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s so far this morning. With
the long wave troughing still overhead tomorrow, similar morning
lows are forecasted for tomorrow. Due to this another Freeze
Warning has been issued for the Tonto Basin, Globe/Miami, and San
Carlos areas from 2-9am MST. Afternoon high temperatures today and
tomorrow will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees across
the lower deserts and range from the mid 50s to low 60s across the
higher terrain areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/...
This weekend the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will
move eastward, but eventually stall just off the west coast. This
high pressure system will hangout just off the coast and
strengthen through the middle of next week. While the ridge won`t
be centered over the Desert Southwest, we will be under the
influence of the eastern part of the high pressure. This will
result in warming temperatures and continued dry and tranquil
weather conditions, through at least the middle of next week.

H5 heights over the Desert Southwest look to rise into a 576-581 dm
range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm sometime around the
middle of next week. This will result in temperatures going above
normal during the weekend and rising to around 8-10 degrees above
normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures this
weekend will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower
deserts and range from the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain.
High temperatures will then continue to warm through the first
half of next week rising to the mid to upper 70s across the lower
deserts and will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher
terrain by the middle of next week. Morning low temperatures will
also be 3-6 degrees above normal by the middle of next week (lower
deserts:
upper 40s to low 50s, higher terrain: upper 30s to mid 40s).

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under some passing high clouds can be
expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will
exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with extended periods of
light variability to calm conditions, especially during diurnal
transitions.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under some passing high clouds can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally fluctuate
between the northwest to north with speeds generally under 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region through
next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal
today and tomorrow, warming above normal this weekend, and then
going 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds
will be light and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs
mostly ranging between 20-35% much of the time, with good to very
good overnight recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MST this morning for AZZ556-557-560-
     562.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ556-560-562.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Berislavich/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich