576
FXUS65 KPSR 081945
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1245 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak and dry weather system will slide through the region
  today, inducing some breezy conditions for portions of the
  region.

- Temperatures will gradually climb through the work week and
  into the weekend with afternoon highs reaching 8-13 degrees
  above normal for this time of year.

- Tranquil conditions will prevail for at least the next 7 days.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Current objective analysis reveals a subtle disturbance traversing
the southwestern CONUS, with the wave axis centered over Arizona.
The most this system will do is generate some very marginal breezy
conditions across portions of the region, with the strongest gusts
focused mainly along the Lower Colorado River Valley and higher
terrain areas east of the Phoenix metro. Peak gusts through the
afternoon in evening hours will generally range between 20-25 mph.
For those eastern areas mentioned above, lingering gusts into the
overnight and Tuesday morning hours may approach 30-35 mph for
locations around the Superstition Mtns and portions of the Salt
River Valley.

Even with this system overhead, day-to-day temperatures are not
expected to cool at all, in fact, forecasted afternoon highs for
today are a few degrees warmer than what was observed yesterday.
This is thanks to more dominant eastern Pacific ridge that is in
place. Readings today for lower desert locations will range in the
middle 70s with a few areas, mainly out in SE CA due to their closer
proximity to the ridge axis, reaching into the upper 70s. Tuesday
MaxTs will tick up a degree or two more as the shortwave exits
the region and high pressure nudges further to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/...
A gradual warming trend will continue through late week as global
ensembles remain in excellent agreement in maintaining anomalous
high pressure over the central and southern Pacific coast, with
dry northerly to northwesterly mid-level flow across the Desert
Southwest. Ensembles show 850mb temperature anomalies peak
Thursday and Friday, at around the 95th to 97th percentile. This
will result in temperatures up to 10-13 degrees above normal, with
lower desert high temperatures forecast around 80 degrees to end
the week and start the weekend. Latest forecast highs from the NBM
are also within a couple degrees of daily records, including in
Phoenix Thursday through Sunday. It is not tremendously uncommon
to reach 80 degrees this time of year, as most daily records are
around 80-85 degrees in December and January. It is actually
somewhat common for lower desert communities to reach 80 degrees
a few times each Dec-Jan, and it has become more common during the
last 10-20 years.

Heading through this weekend global ensembles show the large scale
pattern across the Southwest becoming flatter, with more westerly
flow, for at least a few days. This reduction in 500mb height
anomalies will result in slightly cooler temperatures heading into
the beginning of next week, but still above normal by up to 8-10
degrees. Overall, the long term outlook does not support a lick of
rain. The desert is gonna desert.

EXTENDED LOOK: Looking out at longer range models there is still
no sign of any significant weather pattern change. Ensembles
maintain positive height anomalies through week 2, which means a
continuation of above normal temperatures. The NBM shows very
little spread in the temperature forecast (4 degrees max) through
December 18th, indicating a high confidence forecast. There is
also no sign of rain still. Global ensemble 90th percentiles do
not show any measurable precipitation until closer to December
20th.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1738Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No significant aviation weather concerns expected through the TAF
period under mostly clear skies. Winds will mostly follow typical
diurnal trends at all terminals, with speeds at or below 6 kts at
all but KBLH. At KBLH, northerly winds this afternoon sustained
up to 10 kts and gusts to around 15 kts are expected. Extended
periods of VRB or calm conditions are also expected at all
terminals, and winds may briefly shift lightly out of the SW
Tuesday morning at KPHX, but with speeds of 4 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this
week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 8-13
degrees above normal by the end of the week. A brief bout of gusty
winds, up to 15-25 mph, can be expected across the Lower Colorado
River Valley and AZ high terrain midday today through this
evening. There will also be some lingering gusts Tuesday morning
through early afternoon. Otherwise, winds will remain light and
follow diurnal tendencies. Humidities over the next week will stay
above critical levels with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging
between 20-30%, followed by good overnight recoveries to around
50-70%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...Smith/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict