290
FXUS65 KPSR 041710
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1010 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through next week
with temperature warming from near normal to above normal levels.

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas
including southern Gila County tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early morning upper level water vapor satellite imagery show a
positively tilted long wave trough stretching from Western CONUS
into the Plains. The base of the trough is currently situated off
the west coast of central Baja. There is also a shortwave trough
that move through our region yesterday, its base is currently
straddling the AZ-NM boarder. There is also a high pressure system
situated over the eastern Pacific Ocean. With the shortwave trough
east of our area, dry and tranquil weather conditions return to the
region today and continue into the weekend. This shortwave helped to
bring cooler air into the region. Additionally the aforementioned
broader trough will remain over the Desert Southwest into the
weekend before exiting to the east, which will help to keep
temperatures near to slightly below normal through at least the end
of the workweek.

With the cooler air in place, some higher terrain areas have already
seeing temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s this morning, with a
few hours of cooling left. A Freeze Warning remains in place for
part of southern Gila County, including the Tonto Basin, and
Sunflower, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos areas, through 9 am MST.
Rural lower desert areas have temperatures ranging from the upper
30s to mid 40s with more rural lower desert areas seeing
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s so far this morning. With
the long wave troughing still overhead tomorrow, similar morning
lows are forecasted for tomorrow. Due to this another Freeze Warning
has been issued for the Tonto Basin, Globe/Miami, and San Carlos
areas from 2-9am MST. Afternoon high temperatures today and tomorrow
will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees across the lower
deserts and range from the mid 50s to low 60s across the higher
terrain areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/...
This weekend the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will
move eastward, but eventually stall just off the west coast. This
high pressure system will hangout just off the coast and strengthen
through the middle of next week. While the ridge won`t be centered
over the Desert Southwest, we will be under the influence of the
eastern part of the high pressure. This will result in warming
temperatures and continued dry and tranquil weather conditions,
through at least the middle of next week.

H5 heights over the Desert Southwest look to rise into a 576-581 dm
range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm sometime around the
middle of next week. This will result in temperatures going above
normal during the weekend and rising to around 8-10 degrees above
normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures this
weekend will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower
deserts and range from the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain.
High temperatures will then continue to warm through the first half
of next week rising to the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts
and will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain by
the middle of next week. Morning low temperatures will also be 3-6
degrees above normal by the middle of next week (lower deserts:
upper 40s to low 50s, higher terrain: upper 30s to mid 40s).

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Friday afternoon under
periods of high cirrus decks. Confidence is very good that winds
around the Phoenix metro will only briefly switch to a westerly
component closer to sunset, then revert back to an easterly
direction mid/late evening. Across SE California, a light W/NW
trajectory will be favored. Extended periods of nearly calm
conditions will be common across the entire region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region through
next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today
and tomorrow, warming above normal this weekend, and then going 8-10
degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds will be light
and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Humidities over
the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs mostly ranging between
20-35% much of the time, with good to very good overnight recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ556-560-562.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich