899
FXUS65 KPSR 021120
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
420 AM MST Fri Oct 2 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As high pressure builds over the region, temperatures will warm
  back to near normal this weekend and eventually slightly above
  normal by the middle of next week.

- Periods of breezy to locally windy conditions can be expected
  across southcentral and southwestern AZ through this weekend
  with gusts reaching 20-30 mph at times.

- Dry weather with zero rain chances will persist through this
  weekend and into much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest GOES mid-lvl wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis
reveals a ridge of high pressure building over SoCal and the Great
Basin region while a weak area of low pressure is beginning to
cutoff over W TX and SE NM. Dry NE flow is present over AZ which
will keep skies clear over the forecast area today. Ridging aloft
is expected to be the predominant weather pattern over the Desert
Southwest through this weekend which will continue to to result in
dry weather with essentially zero chances for rain anywhere in
the state. Due to an increased pressure gradient between the high
to our north and low to the SE of our region, elevated easterly
flow is expected to develop today and persist into this weekend.
Winds will become gusty each morning and last into the early
afternoon, reaching up to 20-30 mph at times with gusts up to 35
mph possible across the higher terrain of southcentral AZ.

Positive hght anomalies will be most pronounced over SoCal and into
northern AZ where 500 mb hghts will reach upwards of 588-590 dam
which is in the 90th percentile of climatology this time of year.
This will result in high temperatures reaching slightly above normal
in the upper 90s to low 100s along and west of the Colorado River
Valley through this weekend. Elsewhere across southcentral AZ,
elevated easterly winds and higher dewpoints in the low to mid 50s
will keep high temperatures in a near normal range, mainly in the
low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer in the mid
to upper 70s across the lower deserts over the next few nights due
to breezy conditions developing prior to sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deterministic and ensemble guidance shows the 500 mb ridge axis
flattening as a weak trough passes through the Intermountain West
early next week before rebuilding over SoCal and the Great Basin
region again by mid- week. As this pattern evolves, there may be a
brief dip in temperatures on Monday before significant warming
occurs from Tuesday into Thursday. Highs across the western
deserts will likely remain in the low 100s Monday and Tuesday
before topping out around 100-105 degrees as early as Wednesday.
The lower deserts of southcentral AZ will also see temperatures
gradually rise from the low to mid 90s Monday and Tuesday to
around 100 degrees by mid-week. Overnight lows will also be warm,
generally remaining in the low to mid 70s. Overall, daily
temperatures are expected peak around 4-8 degrees above normal mid
to late next week. Subsidence aloft and dry air in the mid lvls
should keep a lid on any potential convective, even over the AZ
higher terrain and thus rain chances will remain near zero each
day next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1120Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Overall wind directions
throughout the period will be out of the east. Light speeds under
10 kts will prevail through early this morning before gusts
upwards of 20 kts materialize by the mid/late morning (15-16Z for
KIWA and KPHX and around 19Z for KDVT and KSDL) through the
afternoon hours, subsiding around sunset. Winds will remain
elevated this evening and overnight with speeds around 7-12 kt
expected. Another period of gusty winds (upper teens to around 20
kt) will then start to materialize early tomorrow morning, around
or shortly after sunrise.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather issues under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. Winds through most of this morning will
generally be light and variable with periods of calm conditions
before a more easterly direction materializes by the late morning
hours with overall speeds aob 10 kts. Another period of light and
variable with periods of calm conditions is then expected for this
evening and overnight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with near normal temperatures are anticipated through
this weekend with a steady warming trend expected from the beginning
to middle of next week. MinRHs will mostly range from 15-25% over
the western districts to 25-35% for the eastern districts with good
to excellent overnight recoveries. A persistent breezy easterly
gradient wind will develop across the region today and persist for
the next several days. Morning to early afternoon wind gusts in the
20-30 mph range will become common.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Berislavich/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno