Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
073 FNUS55 KPSR 172203 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 303 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER... .DISCUSSION... Elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected across the region today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix through this evening where gusts as high as 30-35 mph and relative humidity levels as low as 6-12% are anticipated. Fuel moisture across south central AZ is also very dry with ERCs now above the 90th percentile, or near the climatological maximum for this time of year. Cooler temperatures and lighter wind speeds will reduce the fire weather risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances begin on Thursday for the South Central Arizona high terrain (i.e., eastern districts). ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-181015- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 303 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................68-78. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................28-42 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................96-102. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................10-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......9600 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 9 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Very good. .TUESDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................68-78. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................27-47 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming south after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .WEDNESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................98-105. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......9200 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 6 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Good. .EXTENDED... .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 71-82. Highs 104-111. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 74-84. Highs 106-113. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 75-85. Highs 105-112. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 78-88. Highs 105-111. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 79-89. Highs 106-111. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-181015- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 303 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 /303 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................69-74. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................29-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................98-103. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................7-11 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8500 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........West 6 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Fair. .TUESDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................68-73. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................30-58 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .WEDNESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................100-105. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................11-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........6900 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 9 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 71-77. Highs 104-109. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 74-80. Highs 108-113. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 76-82. Highs 107-112. South winds 10 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 78-84. Highs 108-113. .MONDAY...Clear. Lows 79-84. Highs 109-114. $$ AZZ133-181015- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 303 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................58-70. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................28-39 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................85-99. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................10-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TUESDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................60-72. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................30-41 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming east after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .WEDNESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................89-103. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................10-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .THURSDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 64-80. Highs 91-107. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 69-80. Highs 91-108. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-81. Highs 92-107. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 68-81. Highs 93-107. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 68-81. Highs 92-107. $$ CAZ232-181015- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 303 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. Patchy blowing dust. * Min Temperature.................70-77. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................20-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................94-102. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................6-11 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TUESDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................70-76. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................18-47 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light and variable after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .WEDNESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................95-105. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 71-80. Highs 99-108. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 74-82. Highs 102-111. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 76-84. Highs 102-112. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 78-86. Highs 104-114. .MONDAY...Clear. Lows 79-86. Highs 104-115. $$ CAZ230-181015- Joshua Tree National Park- 303 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Patchy blowing dust after midnight. * Min Temperature.................59-73. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................21-34 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................84-96. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................5-9 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TUESDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................60-71. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................19-26 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming south 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .WEDNESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................84-99. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 61-77. Highs 87-102. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 65-79. Highs 91-106. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 69-80. Highs 92-107. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 69-82. Highs 94-108. .MONDAY...Clear. Lows 68-82. Highs 94-109. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Tuesday June 25th through Thursday June 27th: Above normal temperatures and near median precipitation.