Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
212 FNUS55 KPSR 161104 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 404 AM MST Wed Sep 16 2026 .DISCUSSION... Periods of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today, focusing mostly across the eastern districts this afternoon through this evening. There will be a heavy rainfall and flood threat with the activity. Moisture levels will be elevated most areas, highest across eastern districts, where minimum RH this afternoon will be around 50-60%. Minimum RHs will be lowest across southeast CA, with values around 20-30%. A drying trend will begin Thursday which will limit rain chances almost exclusively to the northern and eastern AZ high terrain in the afternoon. It will take a day to scour out the low level moisture, so minimum RHs Thursday afternoon will still be around 40-50% across easter districts to 25-35% across the west. Winds will favor the south to southeast over much of the area through today with gusts of 20-30 mph at times across southwest AZ and southeast CA. In the following days winds will return to a more typical diurnal with modest afternoon upslope gustiness. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-162315- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 404 AM MST Wed Sep 16 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. chance of showers . chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................86-97. * 24 hr trend..................6 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................39-59 pct. * 24 hr trend..................16 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................50 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................30 percent west portion...70 percent east portion. * Chance of Thunder...............35 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......1700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......East 10 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Marginal. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. slight chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................70-80. * 24 hr trend..................5 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................71-90 pct. * 24 hr trend..................13 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent west portion...30 percent east portion. * Chance of Thunder...............24 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................90-99. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................26-43 pct. * 24 hr trend..................15 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............2 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......6800 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......South 4 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Fair. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 72-82. Highs 95-103. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 73-83. Highs 97-104. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 73-83. Highs 97-104. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 72-82. Highs 95-103. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 72-82. Highs 95-102. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-162315- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 404 AM MST Wed Sep 16 2026 /404 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026/ .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................95-100. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................33-42 pct. * 24 hr trend..................10 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............11 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........6500 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 19 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Excellent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers in the evening. * Min Temperature.................74-79. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................71-85 pct. * 24 hr trend..................11 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............7 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................97-102. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................25-33 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8000 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 7 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 71-76. Highs 99-104. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 72-77. Highs 100-105. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 72-77. Highs 100-105. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 72-77. Highs 98-103. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 72-77. Highs 99-104. $$ AZZ133-162315- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 404 AM MST Wed Sep 16 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. chance of thunderstorms . showers likely in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................72-86. * 24 hr trend..................8 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................53-71 pct. * 24 hr trend..................17 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................80 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................80 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............47 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly cloudy. Showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening becoming chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................58-71. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................84-100 pct. * 24 hr trend..................12 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming 15 to 25 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................80 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................80 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............35 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature.................76-90. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................42-59 pct. * 24 hr trend..................12 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............12 percent. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 59-73. Highs 80-95. East winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 57-73. Highs 81-96. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 57-74. Highs 80-96. East winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 57-74. Highs 79-96. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 57-73. Highs 78-95. $$ CAZ232-162315- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 404 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................92-102. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................18-33 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............2 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................72-78. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................44-76 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............1 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................90-100. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................19-29 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 72-77. Highs 93-102. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 72-79. Highs 95-104. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 72-79. Highs 95-104. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 71-78. Highs 93-103. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 71-79. Highs 93-103. $$ CAZ230-162315- Joshua Tree National Park- 404 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................79-95. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................19-25 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................61-73. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................52-76 pct. * 24 hr trend..................16 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................78-93. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................20-28 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 62-72. Highs 81-94. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 64-73. Highs 83-96. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 64-74. Highs 83-97. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 63-74. Highs 81-95. .TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 63-73. Highs 81-95. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Wednesday September 23rd through Friday September 25th: Above normal temperatures and near to above median precipitation.