272
FXUS65 KPUB 131748
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch today for the Aspen Acres burn scar due to
  the potential for heavy rainfall with thunderstorms.

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will initiate
  across the higher terrain, and spread into the Plains today
  through Sunday.

- Cooler through Sunday, gradually warming and drier conditions
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows high
pressure over the Southeast U.S. with trough along the West
Coast. This has allowed southwesterly flow to spread across
Colorado with energy moving into western Nebraska. A cold front
has pushed south across the Plains with gusty north winds which
will subside through the early morning hours. Temperatures are
generally mild, with 60s and 70s across the Plains.

Today and tonight...southwesterly flow aloft will continue
through tonight, with an embedded upper wave lifting across
Colorado. At the surface, low level flow will turn southeasterly
by mid morning, keeping moisture pooled across the Plains with
dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. The combination of the upper
wave, upslope low level flow and moisture will allow for showers
and thunderstorms to develop by midday across the higher
terrain. PWAT values increase this afternoon, and weak CAPE near
1000 j/kg and weak 0-6km shear near 20 kts will allow for storms
to become efficient rain producers, especially along the Eastern
Mountains, and as they push east this afternoon in to the I-25
corridor. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Aspen
Acres burn scar for this afternoon and evening, due to the areas
of expected heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will lift northeast
through this evening as the embedded upper wave moves into
Nebraska. In addition to the heavy rainfall, stronger storms may
be capable of producing wind gusts near 50 mph and half inch
hail, mainly across the Plains north of Highway 50. This
activity will continue to lift northeast through the overnight
hours, clearing by tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be cooler today with mid 80s to lower 90s,
with the warmest conditions near the Kansas border. Overnight
lows will fall into the 60s across the Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Active weather looks to continue into early next week before
differences arise in the deterministic and ensemble solutions.
The main differences beyond Monday deal with positioning of
strength of the rebuilding upper high across the western states.

Friday through Sunday...models in good agreement through this
period with the upper high over the Southeast states and broad
southwesterly flow continuing across Colorado. Several embedded
upper waves are forecast to track northeast across Colorado
through the weekend, each bringing the potential for showers and
thunderstorms.

The first embedded wave will lift across Colorado on Friday.
PWAT values remain elevated over an inch across the Plains and
low level flow continues to keep moisture pooled along the
Eastern Mountains. The NAM is most aggressive with the embedded
upper wave, sparking convection across the Eastern Mountains by
early afternoon. Modest CAPE and shear and the high PWAT values
will once again enable storms to be heavy rain producers. The
NAM lights up the whole of the Eastern Mountains, with higher-
res guidance is a mix of focus areas, mainly the Palmer Divide
depending on the upper vort max track. Given the uncertainty,
did not issue any Flash Flood Watch for Friday, but know that
one may be needed as models converge on a solution. Temperatures
continue to cool on Friday, with mostly 80s across the lower
elevations.

Not much change on Saturday, with another wave moving across
Colorado. This will once again bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Guidance remain focused on the
Palmer Divide and for areas north of Highway 50. Heavy rainfall
will be the main concern and the flash flood risk remains
elevated on areas burn scars. Temperatures continue to be
pleasant, with 80s across the Plains.

By Sunday, the upper high to the southeast begins to retrograde
west into Texas. This will bring one more day of southwesterly
flow aloft with embedded energy. PWAT values begin to fall, and
rainfall efficiencies decrease. Still, any thunderstorms that
move across burn scars will be capable of producing localized
flash flooding. Temperatures on Sunday will continue to be nice,
with 70s and 80s for highs.

Monday into Thursday...large differences in the models arrive
next week. The one consistency between guidance and ensembles
is a drying and warming trend, with the main differences coming
with the position and strength of the retrograding upper ridge.
The ECMWF is strongest with the upper high across Colorado for
mid to late week. It is the warmest and driest solution. The GFS
is a bit further west with the high over the Great Basin. This
solution brings energy in northwest flow across the state a mid
week cold front. Overall, NBM temperature guidance has a slow
warming trend throughout next week, with mid 90s on the Plains
by Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM guidance is also on the drier
side, with showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR clouds will increase over the TAF sites as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the mountains around noon, and spread
eastward across the valleys and plains during the afternoon and
evening. Confidence is greatest at KCOS and KPUB for -TSRA on
site between 21z and 01z. A little less confidence exists for
KALS and will maintain a PROB30 during the 22z to 02z for that
terminal. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts and brief VFR to
even MVFR vis/cigs with TSRA will be possible if storms make a
direct hit. Thunderstorms should clear to the east of the
terminals during the evening, but winds will be outflow
dominated with directions and speeds prone to change depending
on where storms develop. Isolated showers may persist into the
overnight hours within an active monsoon plume. Stratus will be
possible at KPUB between 12z and 16z with MVFR cigs. These will
burn off by 17z with another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms similar to today`s. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT