475
FXUS65 KPUB 110755 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
155 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Passing system brings cooler, around seasonal temperatures today
  across eastern Colorado.

- Critical and near critical fire weather conditions continue
  today.

- Warmer Friday, with continued critical and near critical fire weather
  conditions.

- Trending cooler on Saturday, with cool and more unsettled weather
  continuing into early next week.

- Warmer and drier for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate to
strong westerly flow aloft across the region, as a potent short wave
is translating across the Northern Rockies at this time. Regional
observations has the systems cold front pushing into northeastern
Colorado as of midnight, with very mild temperatures in the 60s and
70s across the southeast plains and still in the 50s across the higher
terrain at this time.

Not much change in the forecast through tonight, as westerly flow
aloft moderates behind the passing wave. Model data continues to
indicate very dry air in place across the region, with only spotty
critical fire weather conditions across much of south central Colorado,
with weakening westerly winds through the day. Further east, gusty
northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph develop across the plains behind the
passing front, which looks to push south across the Palmer Divide
between 7Z-9Z and then continue across the rest of the plains through
day break. Northerly gradient flow does relax some through mid morning
before winds become breezy easterly through the late morning and
afternoon. Despite cooler temperatures around seasonal levels, with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s expected across the plains, dry air
behind the front will combine with the breezy conditions for more
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the plains once
again, with current Red Flag Warnings remain in place. Further west,
temperatures will remain near yesterdays readings in the 60s, 70s and
80s once again. Latest guidance does indicate enough moisture, combined
with upslope flow, to develop some cumulus across the southern Sangres
this afternoon, with mainly clear skies across the rest of the region.
Winds relax through the evening, with dry air and clear skies leading
to cool overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the plains,
and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday will feature at and above seasonal temperatures once again, with
increasing westerly flow ahead of more short wave energy digging across
the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies Friday night. Dry
conditions remain in place across the western half of the area, leading
to more critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain,
where a Fire Weather Watch remains in tact for late Friday morning into
the evening. There remains a slow increase in available moisture across
the plains on Friday, with enough potential instability for a few possible
afternoon showers and storms across the southeast mtns, the southern I-25
Corridor and into the far southeast plains.

Latest model data is trending cooler for Saturday, with a northerly surge
behind Friday`s passing system, bringing chances of showers and storms
across Eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening. Model data continues
to bring a stronger system across the Rockies Sunday, with below seasonal
temperatures and good chances of showers and storms, especially over and
near the higher terrain, lasting into early next week, before upper level
ridging builds across the Rockies, bringing warm and drier weather back
to region for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

While VFR conditions can be expected at all three terminals over the
TAF valid period, winds will be gusty with difficult to time wind
shifts.  A cold front will bring strong gusty winds to KCOS and KPUB
overnight, passing both terminals between 08z and 10z.  Gusts up to
35 kts will be possible with an outside chance for gusts close to 40
kts.  Winds at KCOS and KPUB will shift around from the east then
southeast during the day Thursday though gusts will decrease behind
the front.  Only some mid/high based scattered clouds can be
expected.

KALS will also see a wind shift from the north towards morning,
though speeds will be lighter before winds shift around from the
southeast around 10-15 kts in the afternoon.  There is considerable
uncertainty on whether southwest winds will spread far enough off
the mountains into the terminal in the afternoon. This may occur in
the late afternoon before an easterly wind shooting through La Veta
Pass pushes into the terminal during the evening hours.  Gusts up to
25 kts will be possible with this easterly wind which has relatively
high confidence, though timing could change by an hour either
direction. -KT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Poor RH recovery continues overnight, with a passing cold front across the
plains developing gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph in its wake early
Thursday morning. Despite cooler air, with highs around seasonal levels,
the breezy and dry conditions will keep critical fire weather conditions
in place across portions of southeast Colorado, with more spotty critical
fire weather conditions expected across western portions of the district.

Warm and breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday will once again
develop meteorological critical fire weather conditions across portions
of south central and southeast Colorado, especially over and near the
higher terrain, with slowly increasing available moisture bringing
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Colorado.
Cooler and more unsettled weather remains in the offing for Sunday
into early next week. Upper level ridging builds back across the region
for the middle and end of next week.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ220-222>224.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ222-228>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ229-230.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
evening for COZ231-234>236.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
FIRE WEATHER...MW