337
FXUS65 KPUB 081144
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
544 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming and drying trend begins on the plains today, with
showers and thunderstorms remaining possible over our southern
mountains.

- Warming and drying conditions will persist over the plains, while
increasing heavy rain and some thunder moves into the mountains.

- Cooler and wetter weather is still expected later this weekend and
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Currently..

Satellite imagery shows continued upslope and low clouds in place
over the eastern facing slopes of the eastern mountains and eastern
plains early this morning, with most plains locations reporting
ceilings 3,000ft or lower as of 2AM. Drizzle has mostly come to an
end this hour, but may come back off and on for the next few hours
near sunrise. Temperatures are in the 40s and 50s on the plains,
with 30s over mountain valleys. Winds are light and easterly to
southeasterly on the plains.

Today and Tonight..

Models begin to build the ridge to our south throughout the day
today, which will in turn begin to clear us out and warm us up
across much of the area. Our flow aloft will remain fairly weak and
zonal overhead, but a moister southwesterly fetch upstream will also
be realized as remnants of Hurricane Priscilla look to be absorbed
into the broader flow and directed towards our region over the next
few days, beginning today. For today though, the only marked
difference in moisture content will be over our extreme southwest
corner, where the San Juans will see increased PWATs and QPF amounts
of nearly a quarter inch. Any areas that see rain and storms today
in our southwest mountains will have a chance at heavy rainfall. For
our plains though, expect to see some sunshine as clouds burn off
quickly this morning from south to north, followed by the return of
warmer than normal temperatures. High temperatures are likely to
range from low 70s for mountain valleys, to mid 70s over the Pikes
Peak region and the southern I-25 corridor, to the low 80s for the
remainder of the plains. Southerly winds will be gustier today as
well, especially further east near the Kansas border, where gusts to
around 30 mph will be likely through the afternoon hours. Increased
winds and mixing will keep overnight lows mild and several degrees
warmer than normal though, with much of our plains remaining in the
upper 40s and 50s once again tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The upper ridge will continue shoving east as we head towards the
weekend. Temperatures remain above normal for at least a few more
days as the trough axis out west deepens and moves onshore. A cold
front will be forced down across the plains late weekend into early
next week, dropping highs over the plains by 10 degrees or so.
Additionally, precipitation will become more widespread across the
higher terrain, with QPF continuing to trend upwards along with
available moisture. We could be seeing heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms over portions of the Continental Divide, and possibly
some flash flooding concerns. At this time, little to no snow is
expected due to lingering warm temperatures. The moisture will be
increased further due to the tropical cyclone remnants off the west
coast of Mexico, though deterministic guidance still varies a bit on
where to send the main energy from the storm.

Model solutions diverge with the overall pattern further into next
week, but overall a series of troughs is anticipated to develop over
the CONUS, giving us cooler, wetter, and generally more active
weather through the long-term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For KCOS..MVFR ceilings are expected to scatter and lift over the
next few hours, with VFR conditions prevailing through the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will be southerly through the afternoon, with
gusts to around 22kt possible around peak heating.

For KPUB..Ceilings have cleared over station, and VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the rest of the forecast period. There is
a very slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm later this
afternoon, though chances were too low (less than 30%) to include in
the TAF at this time. For the most part, convection should remain
south of the station.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period, with gusty southwest winds and scattered mid-level cloud
decks. Showers and thunderstorms are possible (30% chances) for this
afternoon, though most convection is expected to remain along the
higher terrain, and to the south of the station for the most part.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR