679
FXUS65 KPUB 200633
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1233 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight, with strong
to severe storms possible over the plains. All severe hazards will
be on the table.

- Cooler and less active Monday. A gradual warming trend returns
  throughout the rest of the week along with daily showers and
  storms across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Upper trough will continue pushing through the region today, with
the center of the main low passing a bit north of us. Post-frontal
upslope will be present throughout the morning, with plenty of low-
level moisture, setting us up for another round of convection.
Though temperatures will be a bit cool, with highs only in the 70s
to low-80s, instability will quickly ramp up by early afternoon.
Latest models are showing 1-2 thousand J/kg of CAPE over the eastern
plains, though initially instability along I-25 may be a bit lacking.
Current expectation is for convection to fire over the Palmer Divide
around mid-afternoon, spreading in coverage and intensity through
the rest of the day and into tonight.

Later this evening, a cold front will push in from the north,
allowing convection to move across the southeast plains and linger
through much of the night. With the amount of moisture in place, the
forcing from the passing trough, and the more localized enhancements
from the incoming front, some severe thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon and into tonight, with best chances north of Highway
50 where instability will be the greatest. Hail and wind will be
our main threats, with heavy rain following, as well as a low-end
chance for a tornado or two. The severe potential will peak in the
early evening, but will dwindle overnight as we lose daytime
heating, though that will still depend on how the shear profile
evolves over time and what kinds of cell interactions occur.
Overall, by Monday morning we should just have some lingering rain
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Monday and Tuesday will find us in between systems, with a short-
lived upper ridge in place as the previous low moves east, and a
second low pushes in from California. On Monday, increasing westerly
winds aloft will force drier air into the area. Other than lingering
showers over the SE plains early in the day, we should remain mostly
dry with highs in the 70s. On Tuesday, flow aloft turns more
southwesterly as a trough deepens over the western CONUS, letting
more moisture back into the higher terrain. Afternoon showers and
storms will be more likely over the mountains, especially further
west, while the plains only get some isolated activity.

Looking later in the week, models still show a lot of variability
between solutions as well as individual runs. General consensus
shows the upper low pushing northeast around midweek, with hints at
a high pressure center building in over the region by Friday, though
that solution remains uncertain. Overall, we should be seeing a slow
increase in temperatures, along with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms centered over the higher terrain and our southern
border.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM
MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest
winds are forecast for Sunday afternoon near 25 kts.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions with light winds overnight into
Sunday morning. Easterly winds increase with gusts in excess of
20 kts at both terminals Sunday afternoon. A cold front arrives
by early evening, switching winds northeasterly with continued
gusts. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop behind the
frontal boundary and impact both terminals after 03-04Z/Mon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY