948
FXUS65 KPUB 141111
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
511 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today through
  Monday with a continued flash flood risk on area burn scars.

- Cooler temperatures in the 80s through the weekend.

- Drier and warmer weather likely for mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently...radar early this morning shows scattered showers
stretching from the Palmer Divide, and areas east of I-25. A
couple rumbles of thunder may be possible. There is plenty of
moisture around, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s
across the Plains, so these showers could produce locally heavy
rainfall. This activity will continue to lift northeast across
the Plains through daybreak, clearing into Kansas. Temperatures
remain mild with mostly 60s across the Plains.

Today and tonight...not much change to the forecast thinking,
with high pressure sitting over the southeast states and an
upper trough off the west coast. This will keep persistent
southwest flow aloft across Colorado, with an upper wave
embedded in the flow lifting across the region. Low level flow
remains easterly, keeping the dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid
60s across the Plains. SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg will develop
by this afternoon, and 0-6km shear near 20-25 kts will continue
across the Plains. PWAT values remain elevated in excess of an
inch on the Plains. Expect another day of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms lifting across eastern Colorado this afternoon and
tonight. Convection will fire across the Mountains by midday,
and lift northeast this evening into the overnight hours. High-
res CAM guidance consensus has a majority of convective
development occurring along the I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide.
The HRRR and NSSL MPAS do have heavier cells across the Aspen
Acres burn scar by 2 PM, shifting east into the I-25 corridor by
late afternoon. Even though confidence is not overly high with
flash flooding on the burn scar, it only takes one thunderstorms
to move across it, and the fact that cells will be efficient
rain producers...went ahead to issues a Flash Flood Watch for
this afternoon. This activity will shift northeast during the
evening hours, clearing the area overnight.

Temperatures will once again be pleasant this afternoon with 80s
to near 90 for highs with the highest readings near the Kansas
border. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s for the
lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Models and ensembles remain in good agreement through Monday,
with differences remaining for mid to late next week with the
development of an upper high across the west.

Saturday through Monday...the upper pattern remains stable
through Sunday with southwesterly flow and embedded energy
lifting across Colorado. The threat for thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall will remain across Colorado Saturday and Sunday,
before the upper high to the southeast begins to build westward.
PWAT values remain high, in excess of an inch, through Sunday,
drying slightly heading into Monday. Multiple waves will impact
southern Colorado. Low level flow will remain southeasterly,
keeping moisture across the region, with marginal instability
around 1000 j/kg each day and weak 0-6km shear. Thunderstorms
look to initially develop across the higher terrain during the
afternoon hours, then spread northeast during the evening and
overnight hours. Flash flooding remains a concern on area burn
scars, especially Saturday and Sunday. While we do start to dry
out Monday, burn scar flash flooding threat remains elevated.
Overall, temperatures continue to look pleasant, with 70s and
80s across the Plains.

Tuesday through Friday...lots of spread in the model guidance
and ensembles for mid to late week. The ECMWF and Canadian are
similar, with the ECMWF developing a strong upper high centered
over Colorado. The Canadian isn`t quite as strong as the ECMWF,
and places the high west over the Great Basin. The GFS is
developing an upper ridge along the west coast, with broad
northwesterly flow across Colorado. The NBM continues to trend
more with the ECMWF and Canadian, with drier and warmer
conditions for mid to late week. High temperatures look to trend
warmer, with highs back into the 90s across the Plains. PWAT
values also dry out significantly. This will help limit shower
and thunderstorm development, and what does develop will likely
have lower rain rates and limited flash flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The main concern today will be thunderstorms moving across the
TAF sites during the late afternoon and early evening time
period. Although brief periods of MVFR will be possible, main
concerns will be gust winds with the storms as they move
through. Otherwise, expect VFR with generally diurnal wind flow
prior to the convective activity. After the storms move through,
wind flow this evening into tonight will be from a northerly
component at KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH