


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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870 FXUS65 KPUB 150511 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1111 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through the long term period, with the greatest probabilities over the mountains for Tuesday, then all areas for Wednesday and onward. - Hottest day of the week is Tuesday with high temperatures over the lower Arkansas River Valley in 100s - Cold front to cool temperatures briefly for Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 744 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Updated to adjust pops on the Plains based on the latest radar trends and high-res model guidance. An MCV has developed over Pueblo, with a bowing line tracking eastward across the Plains. Convection continues to persist as it tracks east, with heavier cores near Rocky Ford, southward. While we are not anticipating any severe weather, locally heavy rainfall and hail to half an inch are possible, along with outflow wind gusts near 45 mph. This activity will continue eastward towards the Kansas border through midnight, dissipating after sunset with the loss of daytime instability. Mozley && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Upper level high pressure sits to the southwest of Colorado and short wave trough over the Pacific northwest begins to make its way to the central portion of the United States. The main impacts for the short term forecast are showers and thunderstorms primarily over the mountains with some of the storms pushing over the foothills and plains only to dissipate quickly as they progress to the east. The main risks over the mountains will be gusty winds of up to 40 MPH and a low chance for flash flooding, but the storms would need to remain stationary for that to happen. Over the eastern plains, some small thunderstorms look to form along a few instability axes over Baca County and near Crowley Counties tomorrow from 3pm-7pm. Main risks with those storms will be gusty outflow winds with gusts up to 40MPH. Tomorrow is going to be our hottest day in the week with high temperatures above 100F over the lower Arkansas River Valley and mid to upper 90s over the rest of the plains. This isn`t quite hot enough for a Heat Advisory, so no product issuance there. The HRRR smoke model does put pockets of smoke over the western half of the CWA, but that is very patchy and not too dense, so no major concerns for vulnerable populations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Other than a slight delay on an incoming cold front midweek, the general weather pattern through the extended period has not changed much. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening convection, with the best chance across the higher terrain for Tuesday. Frontal passage will temporarily cool at least the eastern plains midweek, then precipitation chances start to ramp up for the upcoming weekend. Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low over the Pacific NW on Tue will weaken and move east across the Rockies overnight into early Wed morning as an open wave. That will force a cold front south into CO Wed morning, with the front pushing across the Palmer Divide and into the southeast plains by midday. Due to this later expected frontal passage, high temps on Wed are forecast to drop down to right around normal levels, then eventually cool to below normal for Thu. The resultant easterly upslope surface flow will aid in moisture advection, and scattered to likely convection is anticipated for all areas by Wed late afternoon and carry over through Thu. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys both days, while the plains will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s for Wed, then the 80s on Thu. Friday through Sunday...The upper pattern is still sporting a monsoon-like look through the upcoming weekend, with an upper high over the Gulf and an upper low sitting over the CA Baja. Convection potential remains elevated and widespread, with near normal temperatures all three days. Moore && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1108 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 KALS...generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the San Luis Valley on Tuesday afternoon in the 23-01z time period. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A cold front will arrive Tuesday afternoon, bringing a northerly wind shift with gusts near 25 kts possible into the evening. There is a very low probability of an isolated shower, but confidence in occurrence is low at this time. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY