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FXUS65 KPUB 221945
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
145 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A healthy moisture tap will lead to daily showers and
  thunderstorms across the region through Friday. Best focus
  will be over our southern mountains and plains.

- Area burn scars will need to be monitored for potential flash
  flooding.

- Warmer and drier over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Currently...Upper low pressure system centered over the Great Basin
was producing deep southwest flow across the Four Corners region,
drawing abundant moisture up into the western half of Colorado.
Isolated convection has developed across the southern mts and border
this afternoon, while the remainder of the area was still enjoying
mostly sunny skies. As of 1 PM, temps had warmed into the 70s for
the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains.

Tonight through Wednesday...Models indicate that the upper low over
the Great Basin will open up and eject to the northeast through the
evening, while the upper ridge overhead begins shifting to the east.
This will allow the broadening of the moisture plume across the
entire width of CO, and where initially the focus is along the SW
mts and southern border tonight, activity will be allowed to spread
further east and north starting tomorrow as daytime heating works on
the available moisture. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be
likely to categorical across all of the higher terrain and southern
border by tomorrow afternoon, and scattered across the plains, but
by tomorrow evening convection will be likely to at times
categorical, 80% or greater, across much of the forecast area
including the eastern plains. QPF amounts range from 1-2 inches of
rain for the SW and S mts, and southern border, to .25 -.75 of an
inch across much of the eastern plains and northern sections of the
county warning area. Area burn scars will need to be monitored due
to the widespread nature of this event, and a Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for the SW mts starting Wed afternoon and lasting
through Thu night since that area will be the target area for up to
2 inches of new rainfall, on top of what has fallen in the past week.

Overnight low temps tonight are forecast to drop into the 40s for
the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. High temps
tomorrow will be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover and
ongoing precipitation, with 60s to around 70F for the high valleys,
and upper 60s to mid 70s for the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Thursday and Friday...As the upper ridge axis remains to the east of
CO, and another upper low center sits over the CA Baja, the moisture
plume will remain across NM and CO for Thu, leading to another day
of widespread precip. Thu is expected to be the coolest day of the
extended period, with highs forecast to only warm into the 60s for
the high valleys, and mid 60s to upper 70s for the plains. The Flash
Flood Watch for the SW mts will remain in place through Thu evening.
On Fri the upper pattern starts to shift slightly, and the upper low
to the southwest begins to lift out, crossing the state through the
day, This pattern shift will push the moisture plume to the east,
but as the upper disturbance crosses Colorado, it will tap into
available moisture and provide for one more day of shower and
thunderstorm activity for the higher terrain and adjacent plains.
High temps will warm a couple degrees over Thu readings.

Saturday and Sunday...The upper shortwave pushes east, and a ridge
of high pressure builds in for both Sat and Sun. Long range models
indicate only isolated afternoon and evening convection, mainly tied
to the higher terrain, and temps warm back up into the 70s for the
high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Monday...Models are trying to latch onto another upper trough
approaching for Mon, drawing more moisture into the state and
producing another round of precipitation. Stay tuned. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Upper low system over southern NV is drawing abundant moisture up
across the Four Corners and into CO. Increased cloud cover as well
as widespread shower and storm activity will the case across much of
the forecast area over the next 48-72 hours. Activity will primarily
be focused across the higher terrain and southern border today,
initially affecting KALS.

KALS: VFR-MVFR conditions through late tonight, with VCSH, and
PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts to 28 kts 20z-02z. Starting
around 09z, MVFR conditions potentially degrading to IFR as low
clouds and areas of fog develop.

KCOS: South winds gusting to around 25 kts this afternoon and early
eve, with a PROB30 for-TSRA between 23z and 02z. Predominantly VFR
conditions anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE