584
FXUS65 KPUB 052149
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm for the Central Mountains tonight into Saturday
  late evening.

- Strong, gusty winds are expected late tonight into Saturday
  mid morning, mainly for the higher terrain. The combination of
  gusty winds and heavy snow over the Central Mountains will
  produce very dangerous travel conditions.

- Northwest flow continues through extended, with general
  warming trend plains and passing snow showers over central
  mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Currently...wave shortwave troughing is moving across Colorado
this afternoon. This has led to a few snow showers across the
Central Mountains, that look to continue into this evening.
Radar and reports from El Paso County are indicating a few light
echoes producing ice pellets. These echoes should dissipate and
not amount to much. Temperatures are in the 30s and 40s across
the region.

Tonight and Saturday...the current upper wave will depart this
evening into Kansas, while the next, stronger system moves into
Colorado. This will lead to snow from the La Garita Range, north
into the Central Mountains. Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued for the higher terrain of the Sawatch and Mosquito
Ranges, and Winter Weather Advisories for the western slopes of
Chaffee County, and Lake County. In addition to heavy snow,
winds will be on the increase, with 35 to 55 mph winds late
tonight into Saturday mid morning. The combination of heavy snow
and gusty winds will produce very hazardous travel conditions
across Chaffee and Lake Counties. Higher elevations will see 10
to 20 inches of snowfall through Saturday evening. Lower
elevations will see 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts
possible. Winds will produce drifting of snow. Those with travel
plans over the Central Mountains late tonight, through much of
Saturday will want to pay attention the forecast for updates.

Elsewhere, winds will be the main concern late tonight into
Saturday mid morning. Higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo,
Wet and Rampart Mountain Ranges will see strong winds late
tonight into Saturday morning. Gusts 45 to near 60 mph are
possible. Would like to see more westerly flow instead of
northwesterly to have better cross barrier flow for downslope
potential. But there is a window, from 2 AM through 8 AM for a
few gusts approaching 60 mph along the southern I-25 corridor.
Up north, downslope potential looks even more marginal, with a
couple of gusts nearing 50 mph possible on the west side of
Colorado Springs.

As we move through the day on Saturday and the upper wave begins
to translate east, winds will spread eastward across the Plains.
Mixing will help boost temperatures for much of the region with
highs climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s. As for
precipitation, most looks confined to the Continental Divide.
The high-res guidance keeps the Plains dry. There could be a
couple of showers move off the Rampart Range into the Palmer
Divide, but confidence is low in this happening.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Sunday...

Snow will end early Sunday morning in the central mtns. A
Pacific front will move across the region early in the morning,
and max temps will be several degrees cooler region-wide on
Sunday as compared to Saturday. Winds will be less on Sunday,
but still a bit breezy in spots.

For the remainder of the fcst, northwest flow will continue through
the rest of the period. A few weak disturbances will move down
across the region in this flow, but there impacts will be minor,
with mainly some snow showers in the central mtns at times. Overall
there should be a slow gradual warming trend next week, with a few
weak fronts moving across. Temps by late week may be touching 60 in
places on the plains with 50s elsewhere. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions with high cloudiness will overspread the region
through Saturday at the terminals. KALS will see another round
of fog tonight with IFR to even LIFR conditions possible around
sunrise. Northwest to westerly drainage winds at KCOS and KPUB
should prevent fog formation but could cause some low level wind
shear towards dawn. Confidence is low that this will occur
within 2000 feet, so have not introduced low level wind shear
into the TAFs just yet, but this will be monitored and may
become necessary with the 00z TAF issuance. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Saturday for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Saturday for COZ059-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT