215
FXUS65 KPUB 112125
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
225 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather continues on Wednesday, with breezy
  afternoon wind across the far southeast plains and along the
  NM border.

- Upper low over the weekend will bring cooler temperatures and
  increasing rain/snow chances to southern CO though confidence
  in storm track and strength remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

High level wave cloudiness across the area today, along with
areas of gusty winds over the higher peaks, gap flow regions and
along the NM border. Temps have soared once again, with a few
locations near the KS border touching 80f. Just enough cloudiness
to keep temps below record levels farther west, though afternoon
maxes will still end up 10-15 degf above average.

For tonight, lee surface trough weakens, which should keep
downslope breezes fairly light into Wed morning, though still
enough flow to hold overnight mins up above freezing. Expect
wave cloudiness to lessen overnight as well, and the combination
of less wind and better radiational cooling should lead to
colder overnight lows at most spots along and east of the
mountains, though readings will still be above seasonal
averages. On Wed, slightly less mixing, a return of some
mountain wave clouds and a cooler start to the day will shave a
few degf of of max temps, though readings deep into the 70s are
likely across the southeast plains. Winds should be weaker Wed
at most locations, though as lee trough deepens again during the
afternoon, far southeast plains/srn Sangres/Raton Mesa will see
a return of gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Broad upper ridging remains over the area Wed and Thu bringing
warmer temperatures and bouts of mid/high level wave cloudiness
at times. High temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees
above normal with continued dry conditions and relatively light
winds.

Southwest flow increases for Friday as a Pacific low moves into
southern CA late in the day. Moisture caught in the flow ahead
of this system spreads into the southwest mountains and
Continental Divide which will result in afternoon and overnight
showers spreading into the higher terrain. Higher peaks could
pick up some light snow, but with the system well off to the
southwest, forcing looks weak and precipitation amounts
(including high elevation snow) should remain light. Friday will
continue warm with westerly downslope winds across the I-25
corridor and adjacent plains. Some spotty critical fire weather
will be possible for some of these areas depending on timing of
winds and humidity levels, though areal coverage looks limited
for now.

As the closed low advances eastward through the Desert
Southwest, precipitation chances will increase Saturday across
the Continental Divide, spreading into the southeast mountains
and plains Saturday night and Sunday. Given the cut off nature
to this system, confidence in the storm track and strength is
still low. GFS is the fastest and farthest north, with the
storm tracking across AZ into southeast CO on Sunday. EC and
Canadian are around 6-12 hrs slower, with Canadian slightly
farther south with the storm track through Monday morning.
Various ensemble means fill the system as it tracks to the
northeast which really dampens out the flow aloft leading to a
more open wave. Confidence is high that temperatures will cool
off to closer to normal over the weekend, and highest
confidence for precipitation continues to be across the
southwest mountains and Continental Divide where several inches
of snow will be possible through the event, especially for the
Eastern San Juans where southwesterly orographic flow and
proximity to the upper low will be most favorable. Elsewhere,
the devil is still in the details. Snow levels drop to around
8000 feet Sunday night/Mon morning with the potential for some
light accumulations across the southeast mountains.
Probabilities for an inch or more of snow on the Palmer and
Raton remain under 20% for all of the NBM members. Elsewhere,
precipitation will fall as rain, with probabilities greatest (20
to 30 percent) for wetting rains (0.10 or greater) along our
southern border south of US 50. We don`t tap much cold air with
this system either, with high temperatures expected to drop to
near to a little below normal for Sunday, which will yield a
mix of 50s across the plains, with 30s and 40s across the
mountains and valleys.

The system pulls away to the east on Monday with flow
transitioning to west to northwesterly early next week. This
will keep temperatures near to a little below normal with
unsettled conditions continuing for the central mountains where
some lingering showers will be possible. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR the next 24 hrs at all taf sites, with occasional periods of
mountain wave cirrus, especially this afternoon. Gusty NW winds
at KCOS and KPUB early this afternoon will gradually diminish
by sunset, becoming light drainage after 06z-08z. At KALS, light
and variable winds will continue through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...PETERSEN