271
FXUS65 KPUB 231124
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
424 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potent relatively quick moving system will bring a period of
higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain to the region today
and this evening

- Precip could be rather heavy for an hour or two as as the band
goes by, and it may snow quite heavily during this time over the
higher terrain. Some accumulations likely northern El Paso county.

- Warmer and Drier Monday

- Cooler and potentially unsettled Tuesday into Wednesday

- Dry and seasonable Thanksgiving into Friday, then
possibly QUITE unsettled next weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Potent storm will roll over the region today into this evening. This
closed low was noted over Yuma AZ early this morning, and this
system will roll over the this evening. This system is quite dynamic
and simulations show that it may intensify as it pushes off the mtns
later this afternoon. Precip with this system is NOT widespread, and
appears to be more banded in nature. but when these bands push
across, the precip may be on the heavier side. Over the higher
terrain where it is cold enough to snow, the snow will likely be
rather heavy for an hour or two, and a quick 2-3" accumulations may
occur.

My biggest concern with this weather system is later today into this
evening over the Pikes Peak region, especially northern El Paso
county (Greater Monument/Black Forest region). As this storm moves
northeast across the state, I mentioned above that it will likely
intensify and pivot over the Pikes Peak region (the pivoting motion
is best seen in looping the HRRR qpf fields). This pivot motion will
allow for an extended period of precip to occur over the Pikes Peak
area. Additionally, this location will be in the coldest part of the
storm, and the heaviest precip will occur around/after sunset. For
this reason I cannot rule out some heavier snow occurring over the
greater Monument/Black Forest region during this time. Soundings
over the Monument area are completely isothermally saturated from
300 mb to the surface. Reviewing the HREF DESI guidance, the worst
case scenario is showing 3-4" for this region. For now, I have Snow
explicitly mentioned in the grids with 1-2" of accumulation
occurring, As shown with the DESI guidance, there is a non-zero
threat that there may be more than 1-2" occuring over Monument
Hill/Black Forest this evening.

As for the rest of the area, Precip should move into the SW mtns by
mid morning, over a good part of the region south of US50 by
noontime, and then move over the plains this afternoon. Some
relatively heavy banding of precip is shown in the guidance. the
storm then pivots and intensifies over the Pikes Peak region, and
then moves out to the northeast later this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

For Monday, weak ridging develops and temps will warm up into the
50s to around 60 plains with mid 40s valleys. Overall, not too bad
of a day.

For TUE and Wed, another strong short wave with some cold air with
it will move east-southeast to our north. This will bring a cold
front down with it and much cooler weather will move into the region
Tue and Wed. It will be mainly dry, but we will see some on and off
snow showers over the central mtns.

For THU and FRI, ridging builds across the region again and it will
be seasonable an dry.

Next weekend into the following week looks possibly quite unsettled
and turning much colder with some wintry weather finally affecting
the region. It is still too early to know what (if any) impacts
there will be, but confidence is increasing that, at minimum, it
will be getting much colder, and, at worst, possibly quite wintry.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A pacific storm system will impact the 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS
and KCOS, during this fcst period. This system will bring snow
to KALS, rain to KPUB and possibly a mix (although mainly rain)
to KCOS.

KALS - Highest impacts (IFR) will be this morning as steady
accumulating snow is likely. It will be relatively warm so
accumulations will be light. Precip will become more showery
this afternoon. If skies remain cloudy tonight then no fog is
likely, but if skies clear out earlier than predicted, then fog
may become an issue during the early AM hours of Monday.

KCOS - Steadier Precip will likely not arrive until late
afternoon and last into the evening hours. IFR conditions
likely. Precip is expected to be primarily rain but cannot rule
out a mix of snow/rain. No accumulations expected due to ground
temps being relatively warn.Skies expected to clear out during
the early AM hours of Monday.

KPUB - VFR through afternoon. Showers arrive late afternoon.
Best chance of steadier rain (and MVFR/possible IFR conditions)
will be this evening. Clearing towards sunrise, but there could
be some fog towards sunrise.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
COZ066-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ073-075.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST
this evening for COZ082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH