436
FXUS65 KPUB 051127
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit cooler and dry today, COLDER and cloudier on Monday.

- Some low clouds on the Palmer possible late tonight/tomorrow early
AM, Cloudy on Monday with foggy conditions possible N El Paso county
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- Remaining Cool Tuesday, then quickly warming up for mid/late week.

- Not much precip expected with this cooler airmass.

- Wet this upcoming weekend in the mtns?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A pacific frontal system crossed the region late yesterday and this
system will bring a bit cooler air into the region for today. Max
temps over the plains will range from the upper 60s over N El Paso
county to the mid 80s across the far southeast plains. Valleys will
generally be in the 60s today with 40s and 50s mtns.

Later today into this evening, a couple of additional surges of
cooler air will push into the plains, and these surges will bring
increasing moisture and cooler air to the region. A few showers will
be possible over the Pikes Peak region late today into this evening
with these surges. Clouds will be on the increase starting later
today  and it will likely be cloudy over a good part of the plains
by early Monday morning. Some fog may be possible on the of the
Palmer Divide early Monday morning.

For the San Luis Valley...it will likely get below freezing over the
SLV this AM, but will it be widespread enough to finally bring a
killing freeze to the SLV? If it does not become widespread this AM,
then another freeze warning will need to be issued for the valley
floor for early Monday morning as temps will likely get into the U20
to L30s across the valley once again Monday morning. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Per DESI statistical guidance, for Monday, it will be much cooler
and cloudy over the plains. Lift over the region looks sparse, so
expect mainly cool cloudy weather over the plains. Mountains will be
mostly sunny and warmer.

Monday night winds will be more upslope across the plains and low
clouds and especially fog may be more widespread. Dense fog could
occur over parts of the Pikes Peak Region (Monument Hill). Lift will
be a bit better over the region and some light showers will be
possible across the plains Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday will continue to be cool with lesser clouds as the day wears
on. Expect mainly 60s plains and around 70 larger valleys.

For Wednesday into the weekend, ridging builds over the region and
it will warm up quickly once again. The big unknown for the upcoming
weekend is a tropical cyclone (or the moisture associated with one)
will possibly impact the region, especially in the mountains. we
will have to wait and see how this plays out. In the meantime, Wed
through Friday should be mainly dry, with best chance of some
showers in the mountains.

Beyond next week looks quite cool. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

KALS...

VFR conditions through the period. Typical diurnal wind flow is
expected today and this evening. Around 06/09UTC winds will
shift to east as a cool front pushes over the Mosca pass towards
KALS. Winds may get a bit gusty towards sunrise, but will let
later shifts adjust these winds with latest data.

KPUB...

Clear skies during daylight hours into this evening. Easterly
flow is expected through the day, but a reinforcing surge of
moist cool air will push in around late this afternoon. THis
surge will eventually bring a low cig into KPUB, but this should
not occur until the early morning hours of Monday. MVFR
conditions are likely towards sunrise.

KCOS...

Light northerly flow this morning will become southeast by
noontime. Prior to sunset, a secondary surge of cooler windier
weather will push into the taf site. Cigs will lower and mvfr
conditions are expected by midnight, with cigs lowering to 015
prior to sunrise Monday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH