771
FXUS65 KPUB 031536
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
836 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow to occur on  the I-25 corridor and all higher terrain areas
today with impactful accumulations expected, heaviest will fall
during daylight hours which will somewhat limit accumulations on
roadway surfaces.

Heaviest snow will fall in the KCOS region this AM into early
afternoon, with the heavy snow slowly moving south as the day
progresses (See 4th paragraph below for timing)

Northwest flow to prevail through the entire fcst period with
several weaker disturbances moving through bringing on and off snow
to mainly the central mountains.

Gradual warming trend next 10 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

For parts of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Wet Mountains,
and areas immediately around them, latest high-res guidance has
continued with an upward trend in QPF, and resultant snow
amounts, in these areas through today and into this evening.
This seems fairly reasonable given the persistent and relatively
deep upslope flow that is expected to materialize throughout
the day, along with the broader synoptic support and isentropic
ascent in play. Given this, the Wet Mountains, Wet Mountain
Valley, and portions of Huerfano County, have been upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning, now in effect through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025


Currently...

Radar at 2 Am was showing snow areas of snow mainly north of
US50, with clusters of snow areas from the northern San Luis
valley east- northeast across EL paso and northern Pueblo
counties. Areas webcams showing snow mostly on grassy areas as
temps relatively warm at this time with mid 20s to mid 30s where
precip is falling. OVer the far eastern plains temps were mild
with mid 30s to mid 40s.

It is going to snow over a good part of the region, with mainly the
far eastern plains seeing the least amount of precipitation. Overall
qpf values should be in the 0.25 to 0.50 amounts, with heavier
amounts approaching an inch over the Sangre De Cristo mountains
and wet mountains.

Although widespread snow is near certain. most of the snow is going
to fall during the daylight hours. Additionally temps are not going
to be overly cold (mainly 29-32 I-25 corridor and larger valleys.
This is likely going to limit accumulations, especially on roadway
surfaces. With that said, some of the snow is likely to be heavy
today, especially late this morning into mid afternoon. Overall, the
heavier activity will spread north to south during the daylight
hours. Storm total accumulations along the I-25 corridor will
generally range from 3 to 9 inches with the heaviest amounts along
the interstate down near the Walsenburg region. Mountains will
see 6 to 12 inch amounts. Interestingly, snowfall amounts over
the northern sections of the central mountains are not expected
to be that high, and the Leadville region may not see any
significant amounts with this event.

Reviewing the statistical DESI guidance, with respect to heavy
precip, the heaviest precip will fall during the morning into the
mid afternoon time period in the KCOS region. For the PUB region
extending down towards Walsenburg, the heaviest snow will fall from
late this morning through the afternoon time period. The Trinidad
region will see the heaviest snowfall from this afternoon into the
evening hours.

By this evening, most of the snow is expected to be generally south
of the US-50 corridor, with the southern mountains and Raton Mesa
region receiving the brunt of the snowfall. By the predawn hours
tomorrow, snow will mainly be along the New Mexico border,
especially the southern San Juans.

Although this will be somewhat of an impactful event, the area is
likely to see beneficial widespread precipitation. Additionally,
it will be the southeast mountains that will benefit the most
with this event, and this will certainly increase the snow pack
over the southeast mtn region. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest flow at mid levels will dominate the pattern during the
long term fcst period. Several disturbances will move southeast in
the flow aloft, but none of these systems are expected to be as
strong as the system moving across today. Most of the precip with
these disturbances will occur over the central mountains.
Additionally. the longwave pattern will SLOWLY push eastward during
this period, and this will allow for a slow gradual warming trend
through the weekend into next week. By late next week we may see
temps in the 60s and 70s over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 426 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Lots of low clouds and snow expected at the 3 taf sites, KPUB,
KCOS and KALS through pretty much the entire forecast period.
Anticipate predominant IFR conditions due to low cigs and snow.
At times the snow will be light but periods of moderate to heavy
snow are likely, especially this morning into the afternoon
time period. This will cause runways to be slushy/snowpacked at
times during heavier periods of snow. Snow may let up later
this evening but expect low cigs to continue.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ060>062-065-076-077-081>086.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ066>071-
088.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ072>075.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ078>080-
087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH