096
FXUS65 KPUB 300519
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1019 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Incoming snow to the higher terrain, with several inches expected
over the mountains peaks through Monday morning. Less snow over the
valleys and southern I-25/Raton Mesa.

Temperatures remain cold into early next week.

- Another storm system Wednesday, but there is a high degree of
  uncertainty with the pattern evolution.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Cold air will remain in place the rest of today, with breezy west
winds setting in aloft just ahead of our next incoming system. Low
temperatures tonight will be colder than last night as more arctic
air moves in, with most areas sinking into the teens. On Sunday,
temperatures will be similar to today, if a few degrees cooler in
places, with an upper trough moving into our region from the
northwest.

Snow will pick up across the Central Mountains by midday, moving to
the rest of the higher terrain by nightfall. Have hoisted Winter
Weather Advisories for the peaks of the Central Mountains, Sangre de
Cristos, and the eastern San Juans, starting Sunday afternoon and
ending Monday morning.

Newest snowfall totals out through Monday morning show the heaviest
accumulations over the San Juans, with 6-10 inches over most of the
slopes while the peaks get around a foot. The Sawatch and Mosquito
Ranges, as well as the peaks of the Sangres, will see widespread 4-7
inch amounts, while the peaks get 8-10 inches or so.

The rest of the mountains will get 1-3 inches or so, while the
mountains valleys, and possibly portions of southern I-25 and the
Raton Mesa, get about half an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Models in good agreement through about Wednesday, before
diverging significantly with the upper pattern. The GFS is more
progressive, while the ECMWF and Canadian solutions cut off an
upper low off southern California. The ICON is somewhere in the
middle, with a slower trough than the GFS.

Sunday...an upper trough is forecast to drop south out of the
Northern Rockies on Sunday, with snow spreading into the
Continental Divide by late morning, and through the afternoon.
Given the northwesterly flow associated with the incoming
trough, areas of the Central Mountains will be orographically
favored through the day. Generally, 1 to 3 inches may be
possible by Sunday afternoon. Widespread cloud cover along with
easterly low level flow will keep temperatures cold across the
Plains. Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s for most
areas, with a couple of lower 40 degree highs along the
southern I-25 corridor.

Sunday night through Monday...the upper trough will continue to
track south and east across Colorado Sunday night into Monday
morning. Snow looks to be heaviest over the Central Mountains
early, spreading south along the Continental Divide, and Eastern
Mountains overnight into Monday morning. Across the Plains, a
cold front will surge south by Monday morning, with gusty north
winds filling in behind it. As the upper trough continues south
and east, the focus for high elevation snow and lower elevation
rain will shift to the Raton Mesa Region. Downslope effects due
to the north winds will likely keep much of the Plains dry.
There may be a light dusting of snow across the Palmer Divide
Monday morning. Snow to the south will be tricky, as
temperatures rise during the afternoon into the upper 30s.
Temperatures may be just warm enough to prevent much in the way
of snowfall Monday afternoon, except for the higher terrain.
Snow will wind down along the Raton Mesa region by the evening,
clearing overnight.

Tuesday looks like a down day between systems, as the next one
begins to drop south out of the Pacific Northwest. For the most
part, dry conditions are expected through the day, with a few
snow showers moving into the Central Mountains late in the day.
Temperatures will warm in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the
Plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...much disagreement between the
various guidance with the handling of the upper system. The GFS
is very progressive, with another round of snow for the area on
Wednesday. The GFS is pretty similar to the Monday system, with
snow over the Mountains, spreading south and east during the
afternoon from the higher terrain into the Palmer Divide and
Raton Mesa. Another cold front will accompany the upper system
as it passes across southern Colorado. Once this system exits
the area, the GFS produces persistent northwest flow, with light
snow showers for the orographically favored Central Mountains
through Saturday.

The ECMWF and Canadian are much different in handling the upper
system. Both are farther west, dropping the system to off the
southern California coast through the end of the week. Overall,
both solutions would be drier, with a few snow showers Wednesday
along the Continental Divide, then pinching the low off the
southern California coast. While both solutions put Colorado
under northwesterly flow, both are also dry Thursday into
Friday. The ICON solution is in the middle, progressive like the
GFS, but slower, with possible impacts on Thursday into Friday
as the upper trough moves across the region.

Overall, the NBM guidance seems similar to the GFS, with a quick
hit of snow for the Mountains, then spreading it south and east
into the Plains Wednesday, and clearing by Thursday. Given the
uncertainty, did not make many changes to the extended guidance.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1014 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

There is a overall good chance of VFR will be the primary
flight category at all 3 taf sites during the next 24 hours.
Although upslope is ongoing at KCOS and KPUB, lots of high
clouds are moving over the region, and this is assisting in
preventing low clouds from developing at KCOS and KPUB at this
time. These high clouds are likely to remain over the region
through the overnight hours. Nonetheless, there will be a chance
of some MVFR, especially at KCOS towards sunrise. and these
lower cigs may last for a few hours tomorrow morning. Winds at
all of the taf sites will be light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday
for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday
for COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday
for COZ073-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH