656
FXUS65 KPUB 170516
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow across
  portions of the Continental Divide.

- Severe weather will be possible across the eastern plains
  tomorrow afternoon, depending on a cold front location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Tonight: Quiet weather is anticipated for south central and
southeastern Colorado Monday night. Increasing southwesterly to
westerly flow will be in place over the area ahead of an approaching
wave. Despite the uptick in flow and orographic forcing, drier air
will be advecting over the region, and given this, dry conditions
are expected overnight. Otherwise, breezy winds early in the evening
will steadily become light and less than 10 mph, with partly cloudy
skies becoming mostly clear by Tuesday morning. As for temperatures,
another mild and above seasonal night is expected, with the plains
falling into the mid 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 40s to low
50s, and the mountains into the mid 30s to 40s.

Tomorrow: Heading into Tuesday, some active weather is possible for
portions of south central and southeastern Colorado, though it will
be highly dependent on a passing cold front. The aforementioned wave
will be pushing over during this timeframe, bringing increased
support and forcing. Along with that, a cold front will be shoved
southward as the wave passes. There is still a large amount of
uncertainty in regards to the speed of the front however, with some
model guidance pushing the front into New Mexico and Texas by
Tuesday morning, whereas other guidance pushes it southward late
Tuesday afternoon. In reality, the front will likely end up
somewhere between these two sets of solutions, if not leaning toward
the southern solution. With that all said, areas south of the front
are expected to remain hot and dry. Areas north of the front will
not only be slightly cooler, but will have the potential for severe
thunderstorms given increasing moisture and shear behind it. Any
storms would be expected to blossom along prominent terrain features
such as the Palmer Divide or Wet Mountains during the afternoon
hours, and push to the southeast mid to late afternoon. The most
likely hazards from any stronger storms would be large hail around 2
inches and strong winds around 65 mph, though a tornado can not be
ruled out. As for the higher terrain and valleys, drier conditions
are expected to prevail, though an isolated afternoon shower or
thunderstorm will be possible. In addition, critical fire weather
conditions are expected tomorrow across portions of the Continental
Divide. Dry air and above seasonal temperatures will tank humidity
values to around and less than 10%, and the wave passage will allow
for stronger flow and winds at the surface, with wind gusts around
30 mph anticipated. These conditions will allow for widespread
critical fire weather conditions along much of the higher terrain,
but particularly for the San Juan and La Garita Mountain areas.
Beyond all of that, another day of breezy winds is expected,
especially west of the I-25 corridor, with clear skies early
becoming partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon as showers and
thunderstorms blossom. Looking at temperatures, as previously
mentioned, this will be highly dependent on where the cold front
ultimately ends up. Areas south of the front will remain hot and
above seasonal values, whereas areas north of the front will cool
down to around and slightly above seasonal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Activity will shift east of the area Tuesday night with drier
air filtering in for Wednesday beneath a building upper ridge of
high pressure. This will cut back convective potential quite a
bit, with a spotty isolated storm at best across the southeast
mountains in the afternoon. Wednesday will continue on the cool
side, especially for the plains.

Temperatures heat up again for Wednesday into next weekend with
southwesterly winds on the increase as the next upper trough
moves into the western U.S. Temperatures on Thursday will climb
to around 100 across the southeast plains, with the warmth
increasing into Friday and Saturday as H7 temps push above +20
to +22C. High temperatures between 100 and 105 look doable
across the plains and we may be need some heat advisories for
portions of the I-25 corridor and southeast plains Friday and
Saturday if the forecast holds. Fire danger concerns will be
increasing as well Friday and Saturday as humidity values drop
below critical thresholds and winds become gusty. With current
green up, areas of greatest concerns will be out west (southwest
mountains and San Luis Valley) where drought conditions exist
and fuels may become critically dry.

Southwesterly flow aloft may pick up some moisture and advect
in northward into CO, though EC solutions lean drier with this
scenario. An increase in clouds however may help knock a few
degrees off high temperatures for Sunday with some isolated
pops re-entering the forecast. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..Other than thunderstorm potential, VFR conditions
are expected through the period. A cold front is backing across our
plains early this morning, which will bring about chances for strong
to severe storms at both stations. Storms are expected between
around 21Z through 02Z, with variable outflow winds gusting over
45kt through the same timeframe. Hail and heavy rainfall will also
be possible with storms on Tuesday afternoon.

At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds
with gusts to 28kt are expected at KALS through much of the
afternoon, turning slightly more northwesterly around 00Z. East
winds shooting through the mountain gaps east of station are likely
after 03Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR