593
FXUS65 KPUB 302325
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to at times heavy rainfall continues across southeast
  Colorado through tonight, as high impact storm system lifts out
  across northeastern New Mexico overnight.

- Potential for severe storms across the far southeast plains
  tonight.

- Warmer and drier weather Friday and into the weekend.

- Occasional passing waves brings chances of precipitation
  for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has a strong upper
low spinning across northwestern New Mexico, with a notable dry slot
wrapping around the system from Old Mexico into eastern New Mexico,
western Texas and far southeast Colorado at this time. H7 low and
surface reflection are being analyzed across the OK/Texas Panhandle,
with northerly gradient flow developing across southeast Colorado
at time. PWATs remain very high, especially across eastern Colorado
with readings of 1 to 1.4 inches across the plains at this time.
NWS DDC just posted 1.99 inches on their 18Z sounding, which is the
5th wettest sounding on record for DDC (out of database of 55,000
soundings taken)! Regional radars have no echoes across the far
southeast plains with said dry slot, with H7 northeast flow keeping
scattered showers across the eastern slopes into the I-25 Corridor
at this time. Radars are indicating new shower and thunderstorm
development across north central New Mexico at this time, associated
with deformation as the upper low continues east across northern
New Mexico.

For tonight, still expecting widespread showers across the eastern mtns
and plains, with strengthening H7 north to northeast flow, as main upper
low across north central New Mexico pivots into the Oklahoma Panhandle
overnight. With that said, latest high res models keep the H5 deformation
band further south and east across the southeast plains, where a few strong
to severe storms could develop late this evening into early Thursday
morning. Said deformation band continues to lift out across the southeast
plains early Thursday morning, with precipitation diminishing from
northwest to southeast into early Thursday afternoon. With the amount of
available moisture, heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be a
concern, especially across the Aspen Acres burn area, the southeast mtns
and the southeast plains, which have seen 1 to 3 inches of precipitation
over the past 24 hours. Latest cams also keep the bulk of precipitation
along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor into tomorrow morning, as well.
Further north across the Pikes Peak region, totals have been less, but
with the amount of available moisture in place, will keep Flood Watches
in tact through tonight.

As for winds, still expecting to see gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph
developing through the evening into the overnight hours, with the strongest
gradient flow across the far southeast plains. Winds diminish through the
day tomorrow, becoming light easterly upslope across the I-25 Corridor in
the afternoon. With that said, and only partial clearing, highs will remain
below seasonal levels tomorrow, but warmer than today, mainly in the 60s
across the plains, with 40s and 50s across the higher terrain and around
60 for the high mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For Friday and into the weekend, warmer and drier air within more westerly
flow works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the
Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to warming and drying trend
areawide through the weekend. With the drier air moving into the area, will
need to watch for possible freezing overnight temperatures, especially across
the high mountain valleys. By early next week, latest models indicate the
upper ridge flattening across the region, allowing for occasional disturbances
within the stronger flow in place across the Northern Tier, to bring occasional
chances for precipitation and slightly cooler temperatures into the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: MVFR conditions are expected for the start of
this TAF period through tomorrow morning, with conditions improving
to VFR by late morning to early afternoon for all three TAF sites.
Widespread rain showers will persist for all three sites, with rain
persisting longest for KCOS and KPUB. Drier conditions are expected
to make a return by late tomorrow morning. Along with that, thick
low level clouds will remain in place this evening and through
tonight, with ceilings hovering within MVFR heights. Clouds are also
expected to start lessening in coverage by late tomorrow morning. As
for winds, breezy conditions remain in place for KCOS and KPUB as
the storm system pushes across the eastern plains and keeps winds
elevated until early tomorrow afternoon. For KALS, winds remain
light through tomorrow morning, with an uptick in winds tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067>071.
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE