204
FXUS65 KPUB 270721
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
121 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue today, with scattered afternoon showers
  and storms over and near the higher terrain, spreading out across
  plains through the late afternoon and evening.

- Monsoonal moisture increases areawide through the middle of
  work week bringing increasing coverage of daily showers and storms
  and increased flash flooding concerns, especially for burn areas.

- Drying trend late week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate a large upper ridge in place across the southern High
Plains and into the Rockies, with the center of the high shifting
across eastern Colorado at this time. Water vapor imagery is also
indicating a MCV spinning across the West Slope helping to keep
convection ongoing across the San Luis Valley into the Central
Mtns and Pikes Peak region, while convective outflow has initiated
a few storms across the Raton Mesa at this time. GOES Blended
Total Water Vapor imagery has PWATs running between 110-130
percent of normal (1 to 1.25 inches) under the ridge aloft,
with an increased slug of sub-tropical moisture lifting north
out of Old Mexico into the Desert Southwest at this time.
Convective clouds and outflows have kept temperatures in the
70s and 80s across the plains as of midnight, with current
readings mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

For today and tonight, latest models continue to shift the upper
high and mid level thermal trough south across the plains through
the day. This, along with mild temperatures overnight, will allow for
temperatures to quickly warm into the 90s through mid morning across
the plains once again, with temperatures topping out between 105F
and 110F across the lower Arkansas River Valley and between 95F and
105F across the I-25 Corridor and the rest of the plains this
afternoon. With that said, current Heat Advisory for most of the
southeast plains goes into effect at 10 AM and continues through
9 PM this evening. Current records for July 27th are 90F for Alamosa
in 1960, 97F for Colorado Springs in 1960, and 103F for Pueblo in
2023.

There will be northerly surge across the plains through the late
afternoon, as the surface reflection of the mid level thermal trough
slides south, with scattered showers and storms developing behind
the boundary through the evening. Otherwise, with the continued
influx of available moisture, will once again see a good coverage of
afternoon showers and storms over and near the higher terrain, with
the continued threat of heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding, especially for the new burn areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Latest operational and ensemble model data continues to support
upper level ridging build back across the Southern Rockies through
the middle of the week and looks to centered across the Four Corners
region by the end of the work week. This will bring in another slug
of monsoonal moisture within modest west to southwest flow aloft,
with ensemble data supporting PWATs of 150 to 175 percent of normal
across the region through Thursday. The abundant moisture, combined
with strong summer solar insolation, and a few minor disturbances
translating through the flow will keep scattered to numerous afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over and near
the higher terrain through Thursday, with increasing daily chances
of storms across the plains, peaking on Wednesday, as said progged
disturbance translates across the Rockies. With modest flow aloft,
storms will be moving, however, with the amount of moisture available,
storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short
amount of time, leading to the threat of flash flooding. We will need
to monitor daily conditions and forecast through the upcoming week
for the potential inclusion of Flash Flood Watches, especially for
the Aspen Acres burn area. With cooling aloft and the expected increase
in convection, we will see temperatures cooling back to at and slightly
above seasonal levels through the work week.

Longer term model and ensemble data continue to support drier air
working back into the Rockies for the end of the week into the weekend
and early next week, as the upper ridge builds back into the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin region, bringing more north to northwest
flow aloft into the Rockies. There will likely be enough residual
moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms over the
higher terrain through the weekend, though storms will likely be on
the drier side and less efficient rain makers. Temperatures will start
to warm back to above seasonal levels into early next week, as the
ridge starts to build back into the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites in general with
convectively driven winds during the afternoons and evenings
from gusty thunderstorm outflows. KCOS and KALS will carry a
Prob30 for -TSRA on Monday, with VCSH for now at KPUB during the
late afternoon and early evening due to more sparse coverage and
lower confidence in on site impacts. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for COZ083>086-089-093-095>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT