383
FXUS65 KPUB 020807
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
107 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding continues across rivers along the eastern San Juans
  and adjacent San Luis Valley.

- Gusty winds expected today, especially across the plains,
  with gusts of 30-50mph expected.

- Unsettled pattern continues through the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 105 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today - Tonight: Active weather continues for the start of the week
as a part of the storm system that brought heavy rain and snow
yesterday pushes over south central and south eastern Colorado.
While the troughing pushes over and eastward, forcing will steadily
lessen as the trough-axis passes over. Along with that, moisture
will slowly lessen on the backside of the trough as well. With this,
snow showers will be ongoing early in the day across the higher
terrain where orographic forcing will support precipitation
development. Snow levels will finally be lower as cooler air filters
into the region, with snow levels down to around 8,000-8,500ft. An
additional 1-3 inches of snow can be expected from these snow
showers. Across the valleys, scattered rain showers can also be
expected in the morning as showers push eastward off the higher
terrain and spill across the valleys. Much of this shower activity
will lessen through the day as the storm system continues its trek
eastward. While shower activity will transition to mostly snow and
be dissipating through the day, significant river flooding will
still be ongoing across area rivers out the San Juan Mountains and
adjacent San Luis Valley. Continue to heed any evacuation orders and
road closures in these localized regions. As for the plains, dry
conditions are anticipated early in the day as the dry slot
associated with the storm system pushes over. With that said though,
a cold front will drop southward through the afternoon and evening,
bringing an uptick in surface forcing. Given this, showers and
thundershowers are expected to blossom across the plains through mid
afternoon and evening. With that all said, any precipitation present
late Monday is anticipated to dissipate through the overnight hours
into Tuesday morning. Of other concern for the day will be winds. Aa
the storm system gets east, the low associated with the trough will
wrap up more across the central US, and in response, the pressure
gradients will tighten. As this takes place, strong northerly to
northwesterly winds are anticipated throughout the day and night,
especially behind the cold front. Winds are expected to be sustained
around 25-35 mph, with gusts of 30-50 mph. The strongest of these
winds is anticipated to be across the far eastern plains where the
gradient will be tightest. Beyond all of that, partly to mostly
cloudy skies early will become mostly cloudy to cloudy as the core
of the trough passes over, with temperatures dropping and hovering
closer to seasonal values. Looking at temperatures, highs will be in
the upper 40s to low 60s for the plains, in the low 40s to low 50s
for the valleys, and in the mid 20s to low 40s for the mountains. As
for lows, the plains will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, the valleys
in the 20s to low 30s, and the mountains in the 10s to upper
20s.&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Tuesday - Sunday: For the long term period, active weather continues
for south central and southeastern Colorado. For Tuesday, overall
quiet and dry weather is anticipated as the Sunday-Monday storm
system pushes out of the region. The exception to this will be early
in the day as gusty northerly winds remain in place early across the
plains, along with isolated light rain showers. Past that,
additional troughs may impact the region, particularly Wednesday -
early Thursday and Saturday - Sunday, bringing with them increased
precipitation chances and breezier conditions. Outside all of that,
stable and near seasonal temperatures can be anticipated, with
periods of mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with skies cloudiest
as the waves pass over/near.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Upper low pressure system crossing the Great Basin and Rocky Mt
region over the next 24 hrs will bring widespread rain, low clouds
and deteriorating conditions across much of the forecast area,
affecting the three main terminal sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Currently there is a lull in activity for TAF sites since upper low
center is still located over northern AZ.

KCOS: Wind shear mentioned now through 11z. Strong northerly winds
starting 15z with gusts up to around 32 kts. PROB30 for IFR
conditions with -SHRA and reduced vsby 15z-18z.

KPUB: Wind shear mentioned now through 12z. Brisk westerly winds
starting at 12z, shifting to northerly by 19z with gusts up to
around 32 kts. PROB30 for -shra redeveloping between 17z-19z and
continuing through 23z.

KALS: Strong S winds gusting 30 kts. MVFR conditions due to low cigs
and showers in the vcnty.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 112 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Forecast of significant flooding remains on track for the San
Juans and wrn San Luis Valley, with many locations in the
mountains already seeing rainfall amounts as of late morning in
the 1-2 inch range, with another 2 inches possible by late
evening. Snow level did dip down to around 10000 feet this
morning, but has risen toward 11000 feet at midday, with
observations and webcams showing mostly rain around Wolf Creek
Pass with temps in the 30s, and a few locations farther south
above Platoro Reservoir have warmed into the 40s. Even a few 50s
up to 9000 feet toward the NM border. Snotels have begun to show
drops in SWE (Snow Water Equivalent), suggesting melting snow
will begin adding to river flows for the next 12 hrs or so.
Switch to snow this evening still looks slow initially, before
snow level drops quickly below 9000 feet by sunrise Mon. Total
precipitation amounts of 3-4 inches look on track by late
morning Mon, with a large portion of this falling as rain today
and tonight below about 12000 feet. Rainfall amounts in the
Valley itself should be between .5 and 1.5 inches, heaviest near
the mountains on the western in edge.

Runoff peak should be this evening in the mountains, before
snow level falls and run-off starts to decrease early Mon
morning. River stage forecasts continue to indicate significant
flooding, with the South Fork of the Rio Grande at South Fork
and the Conejos River at Mogote rising well above flood stage
this evening, cresting overnight into early Monday morning.
These high flows will then move downstream Mon/Tue/Wed with
flooding likely on the mainstem Rio Grande at Del Norte/Monte
Vista and Alamosa and along the Conejos River east of Mogote
through the period. A river flood warning has been issued for
the Rio Grande at Del Norte, and a flood watch is now in effect
for the Rio Grande at Alamosa. A areal flood watch also remains
in effect for all of the San Luis Valley from tonight into Tue
morning, mainly for mountain runoff.

Overall, most streams and rivers will likely crest at or
slightly above levels seen during the flood event last week,
with moderate to major flooding likely once again.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ067-068.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ068.
Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN