760
FXUS65 KPUB 100540
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1040 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less windy on Wednesday, a few snow showers
  possible central mountains.

- Dry and mild conditions then expected for the end of the week
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Breezy to windy across the area today, especially higher
elevations of the central mountains, where winds continue to
gust 40-55 kt from Monarch Pass northward. Lower elevations have
seen less wind, though gusts in usual gap flow regions around
Walsenburg have been in the 30-40 kt range, with up to 30 kts
around Pueblo. Despite rather thick wave cloudiness, temps have
soared to well above average readings at many locations, with a
few spots over the far southeast plains reaching 70f.

Tonight, winds will gradually decrease at most locations as
flow aloft lessens, though still some 40-50 kt gusts possible
over the higher terrain, especially north of Highway 50. On the
plains, a weak cold front will turn winds nly early, then light
easterly by sunrise on Wed. Still enough wind and wave
cloudiness around to keep min temps milder than average at many
locations, though weakening downslope gradient will allow lee
slope locations to drop slightly colder than last night, with
most spots at/below freezing. On Wednesday, generally cooler
with less wind, though still enough flow aloft to keep higher
terrain at least breezy, with gusts 30-40 kts possible over the
higher peaks, again mainly north of Highway 50. A few snow
showers possible central mountains through the day, though any
accumulations look minor at best. Max temps will run some 10-15
deg cooler on the plains with less mixing and mid-level cooling,
while over the mountains/valleys, little change is expected,
with readings within a few degrees of Tues maxes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wednesday Night - Monday: For the rest of the long term period,
quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Synoptically, northwest flow will remain in place through Sunday,
with a brief break in the northwest flow Monday as a weak wave
drifts across the region. Overall, confidence is high to very high
in this pattern (80-90%) given strong and consistent agreement
between ensemble model guidance. With that all said, forcing is
still expected to remain minimal, even with the wave passage, and
given this, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail. Beyond all of
that, breezy conditions will persist along the mountains with
lighter winds for the lower elevations, and mid to high level clouds
continuing as well. As for temperatures, much of the area will hover
around seasonal values. With that said though, a weak shallow cold
front may influence the region later in the week, but confidence is
only medium (40-50%) in how much this will ultimately drop
temperatures for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Strong northwest flow aloft will weaken through the night,
as passing wave continues to translate east. This passing wave
will allow for cold front to push across the plains, with north
to northeast at COS and PUB through the late evening, becoming
east to southeast overnight and persit through the late
afternoon, before west to northwest flow develops after sunset.
Latest model data does indicate the potential for MVFR cigs
developing at COS and PUB by 14Z, as low level east to
southeast flow deepens. If MVFR cigs develop, should see VFR
conditions back by 18Z, which should persist through the rest
of the taf period.

VFR conditions with generally light winds are expected at ALS
through this taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW