061
FXUS65 KPUB 301002
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold today with snow spreading across southern CO this
  afternoon through tonight.

- Snow ends Monday with continued cold, warming on Tuesday.

- The next upper storm system will move across the area
  Wednesday with another round of snow for the Mountains, down
  into the I-25 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken and lower today as the
next system over the northern U.S. Rockies drops southeastward
across CO tonight. Snow will spread into the Continental Divide this
afternoon, spilling over into the northern Sangre De Cristo
mountains towards 00z. Meanwhile southerly winds will increase in
advance of the system across the far eastern plains, northern slopes
of the Raton Ridge and southern San Luis Valley in the afternoon.
While cloud cover will limit warming today keeping most areas around
or below freezing, mixing in these windier areas may help
temperatures rebound into the lower 40s with the warmest location
being the San Luis Valley.  Didn`t stray too far from model blends
for high temperatures today.

Otherwise, snow will spread quickly southeastward tonight as best
forcing moves in during the 00z-06z timeframe.  Travel conditions
will deteriorate quickly along the Continental Divide, spreading
into the higher elevations of the Sangre De Cristos.  Snow bands
will expand off the southeast mountains across the adjacent plains
overnight. This system is pretty quick moving, which will limit
accumulations across the lower elevations to up to an inch or two
across the valleys and a trace to an inch across the adjacent lower
elevations along the I-25 corridor. The Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges,
and the eastern San Juan mountains should fair the best with 5-10
inches of snow with locally higher amounts possible. The higher
Sangres could see amounts in the 4-9 inch range. Strong west to
northwest winds 20 to 40 mph will cause some areas of blowing snow
across the higher peaks and passes through tonight with snow quickly
waning towards dawn. Winds will increase across the plains tonight
as the system passes to the east and a reinforcing surge behind the
cold front increases north winds 15 to 30 mph after midnight. Some
higher gusts will be possible on the downslope side of the Palmer
Divide towards dawn leading to a blustery morning commute with wind
chills in the single digits. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Models are in much better agreement tonight through the extended
period, with less spread in the track of the Wednesday system.
Ensembles are also more in line with the 00z cycle.

Monday...a sharp upper trough will be quickly shifting east
across Colorado Monday morning, exiting into the Central Plains
by mid afternoon. At the surface, a frontal boundary will have
dropped south across the Plains, with gusty north winds during
the morning hours. Ongoing snow across the higher terrain will
be winding down, with a few light snow showers lingering into
the late morning hours, before ending by early afternoon. Across
the Plains, precipitation will be focused on the along the
southern Sangre de Cristo Range and Raton Mesa where north winds
favor upslope. A bit faster timing than previous runs have a
decent hit of snow Monday morning, with a quick inch or two
possible across the southern I-25 corridor. As the upper
trough shifts eastward and temperatures warm into the mid 30s,
snow will likely mix with rain, and come to an end by mid to
late morning. Expect dry conditions by the mid to late afternoon
across southern Colorado. Temperatures will warm into the 30s
for the lower elevations for highs Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday...a brief break in the active
weather is forecast during this time period, before the next
upper system moves into the region. Flow aloft transitions
westerly, and enhanced mixing will allow for temperatures to
warm quickly through the 40s to lower 50s for much of the
Plains. Gap wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor could see
breezy conditions through the afternoon. A few light snow
showers may be possible over the Central Mountains late in the
day and into Tuesday night.

Wednesday...the next quick moving upper trough will transition
across the state on Wednesday. Models in much better agreement
this morning, with all solutions dropping an upper trough into
the Intermountain West, and across Colorado. Snow will increase
late Tuesday night across the higher terrain, and spread
eastward Wednesday morning into the afternoon. A cold front will
arrive on the Plains Wednesday morning, with northeasterly low
level flow developing behind it. This will usher in colder air
with a quick period of snow Wednesday afternoon into the evening
as the upper trough axis swings through. The heaviest snow looks
to be confined ot the higher terrain, with a couple inches
possible down into the I-25 corridor. Much will depend on
temperatures, with lower to mid 30s expected Wednesday
afternoon.

Thursday through Sunday...models in agreement that persistent
northwest flow with embedded waves will prevail for late in the
work week through next weekend. Near continuous light snow would
prevail across the Central Mountains due to favorable
orographic flow. As for the Plains, northwest flow usually
limits precipitation and dry conditions are likely. Temperatures
will be dependent on individual cold fronts that may impact the
area, and with cold air settled to the east, it wouldn`t take
much to bring some of that cold air back into Colorado. For now,
high temperatures look to move from the 30s on Thursday, back
into the 40s to possible near 50 Friday into the weekend. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 226 AM MST
Sun Nov 30 2025

There is still a window for some MVFR cigs to develop at KCOS early
this morning aided by southeast upslope flow.  Otherwise, expect
thickening and lowering VFR cigs at all three terminals through the
afternoon as the next system approaches.  Snow showers will be
possible overnight at all three terminals with some brief MVFR
cigs/vis possible.  KALS and KCOS will see the best chance for -SN
with accumulations of up to an inch possible. Winds today will be
east to southeasterly at COS and KPUB up to 15 kts while KALS sees
more southerly winds up to 25 kts in the afternoon.  Winds will
decrease then shift from a northerly component overnight with gusts
to around 30 kts at KCOS towards dawn as a reinforcing cold front
moves through. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Monday for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Monday for COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Monday for COZ073-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH