144
FXUS65 KPUB 241101
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing and warming throughout the day today with mostly sunny
  skies.

- Cooler temperatures expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Dry weather with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures
  are expected for Thanksgiving Day and for Friday as well.

- Increasing chances for a pattern change through the weekend,
  which will bring much cooler temperatures and chances for
  snow, especially for the mountains, but possibly for the
  plains as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 357 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Update to issue Freezing Fog Advisory for the San Luis Valley.
Area webcams and observations show visibilities around and less
than 1/4 mile with temperatures below freezing. Satellite
imagery confirms the extent of coverage through much of the
central and eastern portions of the valley. The Freezing Fog
Advisory has been issued through 9 AM, when high model guidance
suggests that clearing should be mostly complete.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Currently..

As of 1 AM, the circulation continues to push east towards the
Colorado state line, and looks to be centered over Bent and Prowers
County this hour. Light snow showers linger over the eastern
mountains. Radar indicates light rain showers over portions of the
eastern plains as well, with a heavier band still persisting over
eastern El Paso County. This area may be seeing mixed precipitation
as well. Temperatures are in the 30s over and near the mountains,
with 40s for most of the plains. Dew points are also in the 40s on
the plains, with 20s and 30s for the high country. Clearing is
beginning from west to east, though lots of cloud cover remains over
the area. It is difficult to see for sure through the mid-level
cloud deck, but fog is likely forming in the San Luis Valley.
Dewpoint depressions continue to drop.

Today and Tonight..

As mid-level clouds continue to clear over the San Luis Valley, fog
is expected to form there early this morning. It is likely to clear
around sun rise from the edges first. Models bring whats left of the
low east of the state line by around 9 AM or so this morning at the
latest, leaving us in northwesterly flow aloft for our Monday,
though it becomes slightly more westerly throughout the day as a
trough approaches through the northern Rockies. This will allow us
to clear out and warm up nicely today, with highs returning to
around 5 degrees or so above normal for much of the area.
Temperatures look to climb into the mid 40s for mountain valleys and
mid 50s to low 60s for our plains under mostly sunny skies. Winds
look to remain breezy out of the north and northwest for the high
country and across our far eastern plains, with gusts to around 25
mph possible. Winds will remain northerly but will weaken for other
areas, eventually falling into normal diurnal patterns for the I-25
corridor later this afternoon. Overnight lows will be around 10
degrees cooler than last night, with temperatures dipping down into
the teens for mountain valleys and mid 20s to low 30s for the
plains. These temperatures are still a few degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tomorrow..

A cold frontal passage is expected early Tuesday, as a trough looks
to pass to our north. Models push a low through the northern plains
and into the Great Lakes region through mid-week, which keeps us in
northwest flow aloft behind this cold front. For now, that looks to
mean like a very minimal dusting of snow for the highest peaks of
our central mountains for tonight and tomorrow, with dry weather
expected for all other areas. High temperatures on Tuesday behind
the front look to stay slightly cooler than normal for most, topping
out in the mid to upper 40s on the plains, with low 40s for mountain
valleys. Skies look to be mostly clear.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday..

Tuesday night looks to be one of the coldest nights we`ve seen so
far this season, especially for our plains. The Lower Arkansas River
Valley looks to cool down into teens, with low 20s elsewhere on the
plains. Mountain valleys are likely to see lows in the low teens,
which is typical for this time of year. The main difference between
Tuesday and Wednesday is that our flow aloft becomes slightly more
westerly as the northern low pushes east towards the Great Lakes,
which will help to increase downsloping and warming a bit near the
mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, especially for
our mountain adjacent plains, with highs in the low to mid 50s on
Wednesday.

Thanksgiving Day and Friday..

Ridging builds back in across the region for Thursday and Friday,
with highs returning to warmer than normal once again. Guidance is
not nearing as extreme as our last warm spell though, and for now,
highs are likely to remain in the 50s for our plains and 40s for our
mountain valleys, which is only 5 to 10 degrees or so warmer than
normal for most areas. Though precipitation is not expected though
this period and the pattern will be dry overall, critical fire
weather is not expected at this time. Humidity values look to stay
20% range or higher both afternoons, and winds look to stay weak as
well under this pattern.

Saturday Onwards..

Models continue to favor the development of a trough out west
through this weekend, though there seems to be little agreement
about what it might do quite yet. Solutions have changed drastically
in the past 24 hours, which suggests that there is a pattern change
coming from Saturday onwards, but that the extent of our impacts are
mostly still unknown at this stage. It does seem likely that we will
see much cooler temperatures through the weekend, along with the
potential for snow, especially for the high country, but possibly on
the plains as well, as early as Saturday. Please come back for more
details as the system gets closer in time and models come into more
agreement about what impacts we should see here in southeast
Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions have developed in the past few
hours, and are expected to persist throughout the rest of the TAF
period. Brisk northerly winds are likely weaken at KCOS through the
next several hours, and have already weakened at KPUB. Winds look to
eventually develop their normal southeasterly components and overcome
the northerlies later this afternoon, generally by 21Z or so at both
stations. Drainage flows look to resume after sunset as usual.

At KALS..IFR ceilings and visibilities in fog have not moved over
station as of this writing, but can be seen very close by on
satellite. Have decided to keep both in the TAF through 16Z given
trends but will monitor closely. VFR conditions are expected through
the remainder of the period once fog clears this morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for
COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR