891
FXUS65 KPUB 291203
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
603 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today, mostly
  across the eastern plains.

- Another round of storms likely on Saturday, then thunderstorm
  chances gradually decrease from Sunday into early next week,
  with a slow return of warmer and drier weather.

- Potential cold front and increased moisture will then bring
  cooler weather and increased rainfall chances Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Today and Tonight: The end of the week brings another day with
afternoon and evening showers and storms for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Westerly flow will be in place over the area
as a high pressure sits to the south of Colorado, bringing
persistent terrain forcing. Along with that, moisture will continue
to stream over the region. With the forcing and moisture in place,
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening. Showers and storms are expected to first develop along the
higher terrain by early afternoon, and then push across the valleys
and plains by mid to late afternoon. A couple of strong to severe
storms will be possible across the plains, where higher shear and
instability will overlap. Strong outflow winds to around 60 mph and
hail up to 1 inch are the most likely hazards with any stronger
storms. Heading into the overnight hours, most showers and storms
are anticipated to dissipate as instability lessens, though an
isolated shower or two will remain possible across the region.
Beyond all of that, winds are anticipated to remain relatively
light, around and less than 10 mph, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies through to Saturday morning. Looking at temperatures, high
values will remain near to slightly below seasonal values, with the
plains in the upper 70s to mid 80s, the valleys in the 70s, and the
mountains in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures will hover around
seasonal values, with the plains in the 50s to low 60s, the valleys
in the 40s to low 50s, and the mountains in the mid 30s to 40s.

Tomorrow: The start of the weekend brings more shower and
thunderstorm chances to south central and southeastern Colorado.
Flow aloft will start to take on a more northwesterly component as
the aforementioned ridge starts to become flattened, though
orographic forcing will continue. Along with that, moisture will
still be in place, though will start to lessen in magnitude as the
northwesterly flow advects in drier air. Still, with all of that
said, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is
expected, with showers and storms initially blossoming along the
mountains, and then pushing across the plains by mid to late
afternoon. There is potential for strong to severe storms across the
plains during the afternoon given strong shear, however, there is
some uncertainty in how instability will ultimately materialize
throughout the day given early day cloud cover, so confidence is low
in this at this time. Otherwise, gusty outflow winds and lightning
are the most likely hazards with any thunderstorms. Outside of all
of that, winds will continue to remain relatively light around 10
mph, with partly to mostly cloudy skies persisting. As for
temperatures, much of the area will remain around and slightly below
seasonal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Upper ridge amplifies over the wrn U.S. from Sunday into early
next week, with main moisture plume suppressed south of
Colorado. Should see much less in the way of convection in the
Sun-Tue time period, though residual moisture will lead to at
least isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms over the
mountains. Temperatures will warm slightly with less moisture
and cloud cover, and highs will rise back toward seasonal
averages through the period. Amplified upper pattern will
eventually send a cold front southward through the area,
potentially on Wed, with cooler air and moisture returning to
from late Wed into Thu. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase behind the front, especially over the eastern mountains
and plains, with 00z/29 deterministic run of the ECMWF
particularly aggressive on bringing back cooler air and
precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

KALS...VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Winds will become w-sw
10-15 kts this afternoon, then light and variable again
overnight. A few showers are possible across the San Luis
Valley, but confidence in one hitting the terminal is low.

KCOS and KPUB...MVFR/brief IFR cigs possible through 15z, then
lower clouds break with occasional VFR cigs through midday.
Thunderstorms are expected at both terminals after around 20z,
continuing into the evening, as several CAMs suggest multiple
waves of convection possible. Reduced CIGS and VIS along with
gusty outflow winds will be possible with any storms that move
across the terminals. Storms then shift east with VFR cigs and
light winds overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN