403
FXUS65 KPUB 161052
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
452 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
  across the plains, with strong winds and large hail the
  primary hazards.

- Best chance of precip during the extended period will be over the
  mtns and valleys.

- Temps generally 4 to 8 degrees above normal region-wide in the
  extended period.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Today and Tonight: Active weather is expected for Wednesday, with
showers and storms expected across much of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Broad westerly flow will be in place through
today and tonight, and while no major forcing is anticipated,
orographic forcing will persist throughout this period. In addition,
a cold front is expected to push southward late Tuesday night to
early Wednesday morning, with surface winds becoming easterly
behind it throughout the day. This will allow for surface upsloping
to develop into the the eastern terrain features. Along with that,
moisture will be streaming over the region, with deeper, richer
moisture across the eastern plains as low to upper 50 dewpoints
spill into this localized area. With forcing mechanisms and moisture
in place, showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom by mid
afternoon, first initially along the mountains, and then pushing
across the valleys and plains through the late evening. Some storms
may become strong to severe as they push across the plains given
richer moisture, and therefore greater instability, and increasing
bulk shear, to around 35 knots, during the afternoon hours as
surface winds become more easterly. With large T/Td spreads, high
storm bases and large DCAPE values are expected, and given this,
strong outflow winds of up to 70 mph are anticipated to be the
primary hazard, though large hail up to around 1.5 inches in
diameter will be possible with initial thunderstorms before they
congeal into organized clusters. While confidence is very low, <10%,
a brief tornado can`t not be ruled out, particularly with any
developing thunderstorms along outflow boundaries. With that all
said, showers and thunderstorms will start to dissipate across the
mountains and valleys heading into the early evening hours as
instability wanes, with strong to severe storms persisting across
the far eastern plains into the late evening and then pushing
eastward and out of Colorado by the early overnight hours. Dry
conditions are then expected heading into Thursday morning. Beyond
all of that, partly cloud skies early will become mostly cloudy
during the afternoon as showers and storms develop, though with
partly cloudy skies returning tonight. Winds this morning and
tonight will remain relatively light and around 5 mph or less,
though are expected to become a tad breezy this afternoon, with
winds around 15 mph. As for temperatures highs today are anticipated
to fall below seasonal values thanks to the cold front passage with
the plains warming into the 80s to low 90s, the valleys into the
80s, and the mountains into the 60s and 70s. As for overnight lows,
values will fall to around seasonal values, with the plains falling
into the mid 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 40s to low 50s,
and the mountains into the mid 30s to 40s.

Tomorrow: For Thursday, active weather continues for south central
and southeastern Colorado. Flow will become more southwesterly to
westerly over the region. While no major forcing is still
anticipated, orographic forcing is expected to continue. Along with
that, moisture will remain in place across the area. With some
forcing and moisture in place, another round of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms is expected. Like Wednesday,
showers and storms will initially bloom along the mountains by mid
afternoon, with flow aloft pushing them across the valleys and
plains through mid to late evening. Also, given modest shear and
instability expected, strong, to possibly severe, storms will also
be possible, with the greatest chance of stronger storms along the I-
25 corridor and adjacent plains. The most likely hazards from any
more organized convection is expected to be strong outflow winds and
hail. Outside of all of that, partly cloud skies early will become
mostly cloudy during the afternoon hours, with breezy winds expected
during the afternoon again as well. Looking at temperatures,
Thursday brings a relatively cool day to the area, with below
seasonal values expected across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Generally for this long term period, a large broad area of high
pressure at mid levels will continue over the central and eastern
part of the CONUS while a broad area of lower pressure will continue
just off the west coast. Zonal flow will continue north of these
centers of high and low pressure across the Canadian/US border.
Occasional subtle disturbances will move through this zonal
flow allowing meager frontal intrusions to move across the
region. Additionally, with the low off the west coast and the
higher pressure over the central CONUS, a modest monsoon pattern
will continue over the SW CONUS during this period.

With the above pattern in place, the overall best chance of precip
over the region this week into next weekend will be over the mtns
and valleys. Temps overall will be on a slow warming trend this
weekend into early next week, then a slight cooling by mid week next
week. The overall best chance of widespread monsoon moisture over
the higher terrain will be Friday, Saturday and into Sunday with
more scattered pops over the higher terrain later in the period.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all 3 taf sites
later this afternoon and early evening. Some small hail and
gusty winds will be possible with the storms. Best chance will
be late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise anticipate VFR
conditions will diurnal wind flow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH