078
FXUS65 KPUB 170920
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for severe thunderstorms are increasing across our
  plains today, where much of the area has been added to an
  enhanced outlook. The slight risk has also been expanded
  westward into the I-25 corridor today.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect over portions of the high
  country from 10 AM through 9 PM.

- Heat and wind increases again late week into next weekend with
  Heat Advisories possible for much of the lower elevations,
  and Fire Weather Highlights likely for the western mountains
  Friday and Saturday.

- Moisture increases early next week with thunderstorm chances
  returning to the eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Currently..

The front is still pushing through northeastern Colorado and across
eastern plains, dragging in some relief from the heat, along with
higher dewpoints. This will set the stage for today`s convection,
and the risk for severe thunderstorms. We are still 70F at the
Colorado Springs airport, where the dewpoint is currently 57F as of
1am. Lamar is 79/56 as well. Winds are northerly in areas that are
already behind the front, which strong southerly and westerly winds
noted elsewhere. Over the mountains, dry conditions are present.
Leadville is 43F with 17F dewpoint this hour. The stark difference
between the high country and the plains will again set the stage for
today`s severe thunderstorm potential on the plains, and also for
critical fire weather potential for our mountains.

Today and Tonight..

For the plains..Models back a cold front across our plains
throughout the morning hours, though its timing and speed are still
not well determined across model solutions. The general consensus
seems to bring it down into our eastern and southeastern plains by
noon, but models hint that it might struggle to fight the westerlies
closer to the mountains as well, especially along the southern I-25
corridor. Areas southwest of a line from around Colorado City
to Kim may end up staying hot and dry through much of the day,
and areas north and east of this line may see the effects of the
cold front. For areas that end up southwest of the front,
expect daytime highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, along with
breezy west winds and dry conditions. For areas north and east
of the front, expect highs in the 70s and low 80s, with high
chances for severe thunderstorms. SPC has all of Kiowa, Prowers,
and portions of Bent, and Baca Counties in an enhanced risk,
with the slight risk pushing back into the I-25 corridor. High
res model guidance, including the HREF, the NAM Nest, and the
HRRR, all indicate strong easterly and southeasterly upsloping
behind the front early this afternoon, with over 2000 J/Kg of
CAPE forecast over El Paso and Pueblo Counties by the time
storms look to initiate (around 2pm). Any areas that end up
situated behind the front at that time will also see over 40kt
of bulk shear at that time as well.. Unfortunately it looks like
time will have to tell on where exactly our severe chances will
lie for today, as that will depend entirely on where exactly
the front manages to advance to as it pushes against the
westerlies. By evening, the westerlies will weaken, allowing the
front to surge the rest of the southwards and into New Mexico
and up against our mountains fairly quickly after sunset. This
should help us to clear out and cool down to near normal
temperatures through the overnight hours tonight, with all of
our plains locations dropping back down into the low 50s, and
our mountain valleys dropping into the 40s, which is normal for
this time of year.

For the high country..strong westerlies and dry conditions are
expected for today. Alamosa is likely to warm to around 4 degrees
above normal for this afternoon, with humidity values falling into
the single digits and very low teens expected across all of our
mountain valleys and mountain ranges. West winds gusting to 40
mph are likely across all areas west of I-25 today. Though dry
and windy conditions are expected for all zones, fuels are only
critical for zones 220 and 223, which include Lake and Chaffee
counties, along with the La Garitas and the San Juans. These
zones are under Red Flag Warnings for today. Please avoid
activities that could start a wildfire in our mountains today,
especially in these areas!

Tomorrow..

Despite our supposed post frontal airmass and northwest flow on
Wednesday, it appears we will likely begin another warmup as ridging
begins to build back in over the desert southwest. This will mean
equal or higher temperatures for most areas on Wednesday to what we
are expecting for today. Highs in the mid 80s are likely for
mountain valleys and plains locations alike, with upper 80s over our
Lower Arkansas River locations and the southern I-25 corridor. Dry
conditions persist on Wednesday, especially over the high country,
where humidity values look to remain in the low teens. Chances
for showers and storms look to be very low tomorrow, though
isolated activity may still be possible mainly over our southern
mountains. The best news about Wednesday though is that gusty
west winds look to weaken over the high country and over the
plains as well. Enjoy it while it lasts (only Wednesday..)
because the heat and the winds return with a vengeance later in
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The heat turns back on for Thursday into the weekend as the upper
ridge builds then shifts eastward allowing southwest flow to
increase over the area.  Thursday will be the first day of
temperatures nearing 100 across the southeast plains, 80s to near 90
across the valleys, and 60s and 70s across the high country.
Humidity levels will drop below critical thresholds across the
mountains, valleys and adjacent plains but winds may stay just
below critical fire weather criteria.

Winds increase for Friday and Saturday as another upper trough takes
shape across the western U.S.  H7 temperatures increase to +20C and
downslope/compressional warming boosts temperatures to around
100 to 105 for the lower Arkansas River Valley, with lower to
mid 90s for the El Paso County, and 80s to around 90 for the
high valleys. These areas may need Heat Advisories for both
Friday and Saturday as overnight lows stay quite warm as well
(60s to low 70s across the plains). H7 winds increase to around
25-30 kts which combined with deep mixing should allow surface
winds to gust above 25 mph across much of the area. Fuels have
been deemed critical across our western mountains so another
round of Fire Weather highlights look likely both days.

Southwest flow begins to pick up some moisture and spread it across
the eastern half of the district by early next week.  This will
spell in increase in afternoon thunderstorms, though western areas
may miss out this chance.  Temperatures aloft begin to cool some as
the upper trough shifts eastward, though gusty afternoon winds will
continue. Temperatures drop back into the 90s for highs across the
plains which should take the edge off the need for heat highlights.
Will need to watch the low level moisture return closely as western
areas may still be close to critical fire weather thresholds even
with a bit of a cool down. Mid/high based moisture out west
could also spell lightning starts if sufficient depth exists to
generate convection. This will be monitored closely. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..Other than thunderstorm potential, VFR conditions
are expected through the period. A cold front is backing across our
plains early this morning, which will bring about chances for strong
to severe storms at both stations. Storms are expected between
around 21Z through 02Z, with variable outflow winds gusting over
45kt through the same timeframe. Hail and heavy rainfall will also
be possible with storms on this afternoon.

At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the period. West winds
with gusts to 28kt are expected at KALS through much of the
afternoon, turning slightly more northwesterly around 00Z. East
winds shooting through the mountain gaps east of station are likely
after 03Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR