513
FXUS65 KPUB 011924
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
124 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for frost across the San Luis Valley overnight, with
  slowly clearing skies across the plains leading to patchy fog.

- Warmer and drier weather into the weekend.

- Occasional passing waves brings chances of precipitation for
  the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has the strong
upper low that brought heavy rain to the southeast plains last night,
lifting out across northwestern Oklahoma at this time, with wrap
around showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, moving southwest
across the plains at this time. This system brought widespread
precipitation totals of 2 to 3 inches across the plains overnight,
with one spotter just west of Las Animas reporting 4.30 inches from
6pm last night through 8 am this morning!

Expecting said wrap around showers to continue to diminish and end
from northwest to southeast through the late afternoon and early
evening, as to system continues to lift north and east into Central
Kansas overnight. Gusty northerly gradient winds of 25 to 45 mph
across the plains this afternoon, will also diminish into the
early evening, with winds across the I-25 Corridor becoming generally
light east to southeast into the overnight hours. With expected slowly
clearing skies from west to east tonight, combined with upslope flow
across the I-25 Corridor, should see patchy stratus and fog developing,
especially in the Pikes Peak region, with south to southeast low level
winds into the higher terrain. Further west across the high mountain
valleys, clearing skies and drier air working into the region could
develop patchy frost overnight, with a Frost Advisory in place across
the San Luis Valley from 3 am to 8 am Friday morning, with overnight
lows in the 30s across the higher terrain and in the 40s across the
plains.

Modest northerly flow aloft is expected across the region tomorrow, as
upper level ridging building across the Desert Southwest builds into
the Great Basin through the day. Temperatures aloft slowly warm from
west to east tomorrow, and with mainly sunny skies, should see
highs warming to at and slightly below seasonal levels in the mid 60s
to mid 70s across the plains, and into the 50s and 60s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Warmer and dry conditions remain in the offing through the weekend, as drier
air within modest north to northwest flow aloft works back into the region,
as upper level ridging builds back across the Great Basin and into the
Rockies. Temperatures warm back into the 70s to low 80s across the plains on
Saturday with slowly cooler temperatures in the offing for Sunday, as passing
wave across the northern Rockies sends a weak front across the plains. Highs
across the higher terrain remain in the 50s and 60s through the weekend.
Will need to continue to monitor high valley lows, as warming aloft
should keep lows above freezing, however, can`t rule out the potential
for patchy frost.

Latest models continue to indicate the upper ridge flattening across the region
with a few occasional disturbances within the stronger flow in place across the
Northern Tier, to bring occasional chances for precipitation through the middle
to end of the work week, with temperatures remaining at to slightly above
seasonal norms through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions at COS and PUB can be expected through the late
evening, with gusty northerly winds of 15-25kts diminsihing
through the afternoon, becoming generally light east to
southeast upslope by the early evening. Upslope flow continues
overnight, with MVFR/IFR stratus and fog forming at the terminals
by 10Z, with the best chances of lowered cig/vis being at COS.
Stratus/fog diminishes by 16Z with VFR conditions through the
rest of the taf period.

VFR conditions are expected at ALS through the period, with
breezy northerly winds diminishing through the late afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 4 AM MDT Friday for COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW