195
FXUS65 KPUB 290632
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1232 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and warm today, with some morning fog over the plains.

- Potential for mountain snow and heavy rain returns to the
Continental Divide this weekend, spreading over the San Luis Valley
as well into Monday.

- Mountain snow increases early next week, with showers spreading
east across the area. Parts of the forecast are still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Be on the lookout for patchy fog over the eastern plains during the
early morning, mainly east of Pueblo County, with coverage
increasing closer to the KS border. Visibility will drop off quickly
in these areas, so exercise caution when traveling. Fog should
clear up later this morning, by about 10am or so.

One last mild and quiet day today before our next system starts
moving in. Thanks to the recent cold front, temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler today, with 50s to mid-60s across most of the
area, though a few places over the southern plains may hit 70 this
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Much more active weather is expected to move into the region
starting on Friday, and lasting into early next week.

On Friday, a deep upper low will slowly move down along the west
coast, while a secondary low moves towards California, getting
embedded in a broad upper trough. Flow aloft over our region will
pick up out of the southwest, bringing good moisture transport into
the mountains. Showers will be isolated to scattered in nature to
begin with, mainly falling over the San Juans. Meanwhile, a
shortwave will pass over the southern portion of our CWA, which
could bring some scattered afternoon showers to the far eastern
plains. That will most likely depend on the speed of the wave as it
pushes past, with most of the heavier accumulations falling in
Kansas and the OK Panhandle.

Moving into the weekend, the forecast gets less certain as model
solution begin to diverge. The general trends have the northern low
pushing southeast towards Nevada into Sunday, while the southern low
moves onshore in California. Beyond this point, the two low
pressures will phase with the broad flow pattern, namely the
deepening trough over the western CONUS, before pushing east and
into our area. That being said, the exact timing, path, and
amplitude of the systems as they interact are still too wildly
different between solutions for any fine details to be decided on
just yet.

In spite of the wide arrange of synoptic patterns we could see into
early next week, the trend of impacts has started to take shape. QPF
spread amongst latest guidance shows the highest accumulations in
the San Juans, no surprise there given the persistent SW flow,
followed by the central mountains, with the rest of the higher
terrain varying a bit more. Snow levels are still uncertain, given
that even a subtle shift north or south of the approaching low could
impact how much cold air moves into the region. In general, we can
expect heavier snow over the San Juans, mainly closer to the peaks.
Uncertainty increases even more looking further east, as the path of
the system will greatly influence whether the Palmer Divide and
eastern plains receive any precipitation at all, with deterministic
guidance varying considerably.

Regardless, latest models show plenty of moisture moving into the
mountains through Sunday, with activity spreading east onto the
plains through Tuesday. Temperatures will also cool off another 10-
15 degrees or so by then thanks to an influx of cooler air. Beyond
that, models still need more time to agree on the details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Surface Winds will be generally light and diurnally driven.
However, IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog spread into the plains overnight,
roughly between 11z and 16z. This should stay east of KCOS and KPUB
so no mention, but will monitor through the night. A gradual
lowering of the cloud deck is forecast for most sites starting after
00z tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE