484
FXUS65 KPUB 181212
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
612 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 100s return to a good portion of the plains TODAY. Isolated storms
this evening

- Cooler Wednesday, FLASH FLOODING of the Aspen Acres (AA) burn scar
possible once again on this day.

- Getting warm again late week/weekend then cooling with monsoon
  flow returning early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

100 degree readings will once again return to a good portion of the
plains today, with readings from 100 to 103 from roughly Pueblo east
to the KS border and down towards Springfield. 90s will occur rest
of the plains and mid Ark Rvr valley areas, with upper 80s in the
larger valleys.

As for precip today, not likely. We may see some very isolated
showers over the region by late afternoon, with a slightly better
chance of showers and storms over the southern mtns and I-25 corridor
during the evening hours as a cool front pushes down the plains this
evening. Once the cool front moves down, low level moisture will
improve over the plains, and we could see a few storms develop along
behind the front over the plains and I-25 corridor region through
the overnight hours. There is a low chance we could see a strong
storm or two along the southern mtns/I-25 corridor region (including
the AA burn scar) tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For Wednesday, the FLASH FLOOD threat will return to the AA burn
scar sfc upslope flow combines with northwesterly flow aloft.
Guidance shows best moisture (and related instability) will be
pinned along the mtns/plains interface and I-25 corridor region.
This could allow strong storms to push southeastward along the
southern mtns, bringing a heavy rain threat to teh AA burn scar
during the afternoon time period. In addition to the heavy rain,
shear will be sufficient for rotating storms and severe storms will
be possible along the southern mtns/I-25 corridor region. Max temps
will be about 10 degrees cooler on WED as compared to TUE.

Looking at Thursday into the weekend, it will get warm once again
with temps peaking around 100 across parts of the plains with 90s
elsewhere across the lower elevations and 80s in the valleys. There
will be some moisture noted in the mid levels so isolated to
scattered storms will be possible each day most areas, with better
chances of storms over the CONTDVD region.

By next week, a more favorable pattern for showers and storm
develops as a more favorable monsoon pattern develops over the
region. This is reflected in the deterministic guidance along the
NBM data plots for the region. Temps will also cool down a few
degrees during this period. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

At KCOS, VFR the next 24 hrs, though did carry a prob30 for a
brief windy -shra late this afternoon and evening as a cold
front (fropa 00z-03z) moves through. Winds this morning into
early afternoon will stay generally nw, with a brief period of
gusts over 20 kts from 12z-14z. Winds then become sly after
20z, then back to nly behind the cold front, with some gusts to
25 kts after 03z.

After KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, with a prob30 for a gusty
shra late this afternoon into the evening with the cold front
(fropa 00z-03z). Could even see a tsra after 00z along/behind
the front, though not enough confidence in this scenario to
include in the taf yet. Light winds this morning will gradually
become sely after 20z, then nly after 01z, with gusts to 25 kts
behind the front after 03z.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with generally light winds under
12 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN