229
FXUS65 KPUB 141737
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible eastern plains today through Monday. A
  few strong to severe storms possible, mainly for wind today,
  and wind and hail for Sun and possibly Mon near the eastern
  border.

- Unseasonably warm through the period with Monday the hottest day.

- Slight cool down with a disturbance/cold front for Tuesday bringing
  an uptick in thunderstorms for eastern areas.

- Heating back up again late week into next weekend with
  critical fire weather conditions possible out west should
  fuels dry out sufficiently.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Thunderstorms continue to percolate across the far eastern plains as
of 3 AM though are trending eastward as the shortwave rounding the
ridge pushes into the central plains early this morning.  Dew points
in the 50s across the southeast plains will keep morning
temperatures on the warm side.  Meanwhile, clear skies and much
drier air mass out west will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s
for some of our colder valley spots (San Luis and Upper Rio Grande)
this morning.

Next disturbance back across UT will be moving through the
western/northern periphery of the upper ridge today glancing through
northern CO late this afternoon and evening.  Dew points mix out
into the 20s and 30s across the mountains/valleys and adjacent
plains this afternoon, and soundings show very high based CAPE for
these areas where a few CAMS are generating some isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon as the energy approaches from the
west.  Localized gusty winds will be the primary risks.  Out east,
dew points maintain in the 50s yielding mean CAPE of up to 2000 J/kg
according to HREF.  So a strong to severe storm or two across our
eastern most counties (Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca) look
possible.  Soundings even out east show fairly high based CAPE
initially, though as the dry line backs westward with an easterly
low level jet CAPE actually increases into the evening. The
challenge will be predicting where the convective clusters will
develop overnight across the eastern CO plains, with at least a
couple HREF members suggesting thunderstorms could develop across
our southeast.  Odds look lower tonight vs what occurred last night
with perhaps Kiowa and Baca counties most favored.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Hot and dry weather continues for Sunday with dew points getting
progressively drier out west.  Another subtle disturbance translates
through southwest flow aloft on Sunday though moisture looks too
limited across the mountains and valleys for anything more than some
cumulus build ups.  Southeast winds across the plains will maintain
some 50s to lower 60 dew points across the eastern counties with a
little higher dew points possible along the I-25 corridor (upper 30s
to lower 40s).  CAPE looks more stout for Sunday, especially out
east where HREF shows mean CAPE values of up to 2500 J/kg during the
late afternoon and evening. Deep layer shears will be running around
40 kts, adequate for severe thunderstorm organization, especially
into the evening assuming we can break through the cap.  Both
operational GFS and NAM12 show this potential as a low level jet
increases Sunday evening, interacting with convection rolling
southeastward off the Palmer Divide.  However clarity is more murky
when looking at various CAMs solutions which keep most of our
eastern plains dry. Certainly the potential is there and perhaps a
little more elevated from the previous day. Otherwise, highs on
Sunday will come close to the century mark across the plains with
80s across the valleys and 60s and 70s across the mountains.

Monday will be hot and dry across the area with temperatures
approaching record highs which are 101 for Pueblo, 100 for Colorado
Springs and 94 for Alamosa...all three set in 2021.  For now, Pueblo
stands the best chance of record tie or break. Highs in Alamosa and
Colorado Springs are forecast to come up shy by a few degrees.  We
will see some afternoon breezes pick up which when combined with
critically low humidity values raises some concerns for fire weather
potential.  For now, fuels are deemed not critical so no fire
weather highlights are anticipated.  But fuels status will need to
be monitored closely, particularly for some of our western
mountains/interior valleys where rainfall has been more lacking
lately.

The upper trough will move across CO on Tuesday bringing a return of
dry and windy conditions out west.  Critical fire weather conditions
will be in place on Tuesday across the mountains and interior
valleys, though fuels status will be the main driver for highlights
which is lacking at this point due to green up.  A cold front will
drop through the southeast plains bringing an uptick in thunderstorm
chances as dew points increase. Temperatures will cool off closer to
or a little above seasonal normals. Depending on the timing of the
front, and low level moisture return, we could see the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across the plains, though details
this far out are still murky.

Another warming and drying trend is expected late week into next
weekend with post frontal moisture lacking on Wed.  the forecast
carries dry conditions for now with temperatures approaching 100
degrees again by next Saturday across the plains.  It is starting to
look more like a summer time pattern. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Very isolated convection expected over the higher terrain today,
mainly across the Pikes Peak region and along the southern CO
border. Main threat from any storms today will be gusty outflow
winds of 30-35 kts.

KCOS: Best chance for some thunderstorm effects, so included VCTS
from 23z-02z. If confidence builds may need to amend to add some
variable higher gusts.

KPUB: Guidance is indicating potential for a brief period of some
stronger northerly winds late, so included a TEMPO group for 05z-07z
for a 15 kt northerly push. May need to amend later to increase the
winds.

KALS: Maintained stronger west winds with gusts to around 20 kts
between 22z-02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE