355
FXUS65 KPUB 261119
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
519 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions expected through the weekend.

- Dynamic pattern develops through next week, with potential
  for flooding concerns, especially across the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today and Tonight: For the first day of the weekend, quiet weather
is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Overall,
ridging will be in place across the region, bringing drier air and
greater subsidence. With these conditions in place, dry conditions
are expected to prevail today and tonight for the region. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies early will become partly cloudy during the
afternoon as weak ripples within the flow pass over, with winds
remaining fairly light, around and less than 10 mph. As for
temperatures, with the ridging in place, much of the area will warm
to above seasonal values. Given this, the plains will warm into the
upper 70s to mid 80s, the valleys into the upper 60s to 70, and the
mountains into the mid 40s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Sunday: Heading into Sunday, another relatively quiet weather day is
in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Again, overall
ridging will be in place. With the drier air and subsidence with
this pattern, dry conditions are expected for the area. With that
said, weak embedded shortwaves along the eastern periphery of an
approaching trough will start to push over the area Sunday night.
With the uptick in forcing from these features, isolated to
scattered showers are anticipated to blossom along the higher
terrain, but particularly the Continental Divide. Along with that,
clouds will steadily increase throughout the day in response to the
approaching troughing, along with winds also starting to increase,
especially across the plains. Temperatures throughout Sunday will
maintain the above seasonal temperature trend, especially across the
plains.

Monday - Friday: For next week, active weather makes a return to
south central and southeastern Colorado, especially during midweek.
A fairly dynamic pattern is expected to play out next week, as the
aforementioned approaching trough starts pushing over and the
remnants of ongoing hurricane Polo interact. At this point, model
guidance is in solid agreement about arcing hurricane Polo to the NE
and pulling it into the broader troughing flow. With that said
though, there is still some uncertainty in the timing of phasing and
how well the systems phase at all. Regardless though, with the surge
in both forcing and moisture from this pattern/interaction,
precipitation chances are expected to increase substantially
areawide, but especially across the plains. If these systems phase
in a constructive way, there is even potential for this to be a high
impact pattern in regards to flooding. With that all said though, as
mentioned, uncertainty does still remain, and the best thing to do
for now is to continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
updates. Perhaps if we start yelling out "Marco" we`ll hear the
"Polo" call outs back to us, and we can get a better idea of where
the storm will ultimately go! Beyond all of that, winds and cloud
cover are expected to increase given the unsettled pattern, though
with both lessening by the end of next week as the pattern pushes
east. Looking at temperatures, Monday will be the warmest day ahead
of the busier pattern, with a substantial cool down thereafter
influenced by frontal passage and the overall unsettled pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fog has been observed over the San Luis Valley this morning, but
after it dissipates at around 1000 - 1100 this morning, VFR
conditions will remain over KALS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected throughout the forecast period over KPUB and KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...SKELLY