751
FXUS65 KPUB 232341
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood threat continues through this evening as
  widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
  region.

- Hot temperatures continue this weekend, along with mountain
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tonight: Active weather is expected heading into Thursday
evening for parts of south central and southeastern Colorado. A
wave will be passing over the region during the evening hours,
bringing a modest uptick in forcing and support. These factors,
in combination with high moisture in place, will allow for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop
during the evening hours and into the early overnight hours. The
greatest coverage of precipitation is expected across the
eastern plains though, where outflows from earlier storms will
help to initiate further storm development. Heavy rain, frequent
lighting, and strong outflow winds to around 50 mph will be
possible with any more organized thunderstorm. With that all
said, as the wave pushes east and exits, any showers and storms
across the area are expected to dissipate during the mid
overnight hours, with dry conditions by Friday morning. Outside
of all of that, mostly cloudy skies early tonight with give way
to mostly clear skies by Friday morning as the wave exits, with
winds remaining light outside of storms, generally less than 10
mph. Looking at temperatures, another mild July night is
anticipated given the high moisture content. Lows for the plains
will be in the mid 60s, in the mid 50s to low 60s for the
valleys, and in the mid 40s to low 50s for the mountains.

Tomorrow: For Friday, active weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado. With the shortwave gone, the
ridge of high pressure will quickly reestablish itself as the
dominant synoptic feature around the four corners region. Given
this, weak and nebulous flow and support will be in place for
south central and southeastern Colorado. However, abundant
moisture will remain in place, and this, along with diurnal
terrain circulations, will allow for scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and storms to blossom along the higher
terrain. In addition, some spillage across the valleys is
anticipated as outflows push off the terrain, though generally
lesser in coverage, with more isolated to scattered showers and
storms. The plains are expected to remain mostly dry, though
can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm along the I-25
corridor area. Beyond all of that, mostly clear skies early will
become partly cloudy during the afternoon hours, with winds
still remaining fairly light, around and less than 10 mph,
outside of thunderstorms. As for temperatures, another warm day
is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. The
plains will warm into the mid to upper 90s, the valleys into the
80s to low 90s, and the mountains into the upper 50s to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

This Weekend Onwards...

As the upper high moves overhead, flow weakens aloft. Forcing for
storms will significantly weaken, though recycling monsoon moisture
will be plentiful enough to keep afternoon showers and storms going
over the mountains. Meanwhile, the plains will dry out again, with
triple-digit temperatures returning. Current long-range guidance
suggests a wetter and potentially cooler (or at least less hot)
pattern as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will diminish through mid
evening, with the likelihood of any thunderstorms quickly
lowering. Do think a stray shower with limited impacts will
remain possible, and so have kept a VCSH at all sites this
evening. Dry and VFR conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the period.

Outflow boundaries have dictated the winds this past afternoon,
but with limited precip development this evening, this should
help winds lighten and become more diurnally driven, if not
light and variable this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ