184
FXUS65 KPUB 300103
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
703 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of our plains
  through 10 PM this evening.

- A few stronger storms will be possible again on Saturday,
  before thunderstorm chances gradually decrease from Sunday
  into early next week.

- Potential cold front and increased moisture will then bring
  cooler weather and increased rainfall chances Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Update to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Las Animas
County. The remainder of the watch remains in effect through 10
PM for the Plains. An area of strong to severe storms is
currently track east-southeast across Kiowa County, back into
Bent County. Hail, wind and a small tornado threat exists with
this activity. High-res guidance has this convection track east
through 10 PM.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Currently..

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of the area,
with one severe warned storm currently pushing through Las Animas
County. Satellite imagery depicts lots of cloud cover over the high
country, with mostly clear conditions over the plains. Dewpoints are
in the upper 50s and low 60s on the plains. Temperatures are in the
70s and low 80s.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
through much of this afternoon and into this evening. SPC
Mesoanalysis currently paints around 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of SB CAPE
over much of our plains throughout the window for convection, along
with 40 kts of effective shear. Chances for strong to severe storms
look to remain in place through this evening, especially over and
east of the I-25 corridor, where clearing is most prevalent this
hour. Subsevere thunderstorm activity will be possible through the
late evening hours, with lingering showers into the overnight hours.
Cloud cover looks to keep temperatures mild heading into tomorrow
morning. Our Severe Thunderstorm Watch over Las Animas, Baca,
Bent, Prowers, Otero, Crowley, and Kiowa counties will remain in
place through 10 PM this evening, though some counties may end
up being dropped earlier.

Tomorrow..

Our flow aloft becomes more northwesterly throughout Saturday, which
will begin to dry things out incrementally across the forecast area.
Shortwave energy and lingering surface moisture will still be
sufficient to pop off another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over the region. Overall, models hint at less
instability for tomorrow, especially north of Highway 50, given the
trend towards prolonged early morning cloud cover. Shear will still
remain elevated, with generally 40kts or so expected throughout the
afternoon hours across much of the plains. Overall thinking is that
thunderstorms may be slow to get going, especially near the
mountains, given early morning cloud cover, but anything that keeps
its act together or manages to form up in areas that clear out will
have the potential to become strong to potentially severe. Main
risks with any stronger storms tomorrow will be heavy rain, small
hail, wind gusts to 55 mph, and lightning. Other than thunderstorm
chances, tomorrow`s daytime highs look to be slightly cooler than
Friday`s/today`s by just a couple of degrees, which would put highs
in the 70s over our mountain valleys, the Raton Mesa, and the higher
elevations of the Pikes Peak region, with lower 80s elsewhere on the
plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the high country
as well, though storms are likely to be subsevere over our mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Upper ridge amplifies over the wrn U.S. from Sunday into early
next week, with main moisture plume suppressed south of
Colorado. Should see much less in the way of convection in the
Sun-Tue time period, though residual moisture will lead to at
least isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms over the
mountains. Temperatures will warm slightly with less moisture
and cloud cover, and highs will rise back toward seasonal
averages through the period. Amplified upper pattern will
eventually send a cold front southward through the area,
potentially on Wed, with cooler air and moisture returning to
from late Wed into Thu. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase behind the front, especially over the eastern mountains
and plains, with 00z/29 deterministic run of the ECMWF
particularly aggressive on bringing back cooler air and
precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 454 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..Showers, thunderstorms, and brief reductions to
MVFR visibilities during heavier rain showers are expected to
continue through around 02Z. Light rain showers may linger over both
locations through 06Z or so at the latest. Mid-level cloud cover is
expected to stick around through much of the overnight hours, though
outflow from this evening`s convection may end up driving ceilings
lower than currently forecast. For now, low clouds and fog are not
expected, as winds are forecast to remain northerly. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at both stations
tomorrow.

At KALS..VFR conditions for the rest of tonight and into tomorrow
morning, with scattered to broken mid and upper level cloud cover.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow
afternoon, mainly after 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...EHR