090
FXUS65 KPUB 081845
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1245 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms and locally heavy rain possible LATE this
afternoon into the evening hours over parts of the forecast area.

- Cooler tomorrow, with a good chance of convection over the eastern
plains tomorrow evening extending into the overnight hours of early
Thursday morning.

- Hot again Friday, but a bit cooler for the weekend, then even
  cooler for early next week with showers and storms continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The main concern in the short term is the threat of showers and
thunderstorms, some strong with heavy rain, extending for the El
Paso/N Pueblo area eastward out to Kiowa county. Strong storms will
be possible in this above mentioned area, but the heavier rain
threat will likely be over the greater Kiowa county region late this
evening.

First, SPC has pushed the marginal westward to E Pueblo/E El Paso
county area eastward. This looks reasonable as a band of CAPE and
some shear are noted over this region later today. Secondly, the
CAMS have been showing some rather impressive 1 hour rainfall
amounts this evening over the far eastern plains, mainly in the
greater Kiowa county region. The guidance has been pretty persistent
on keeping these rather high qpf values run and run. Have bumped up
the QPF over this region and we have issued a mesographich
describing the threat for late this afternoon into the evening hours.

Another area of showers and storms is expected to occur mainly this
afternoon and early evening along the CO/NM-OK border areas.

Over the remainder of the region, the convective activity will be
more isolated. Although I cannot rule out some heavy rain over the
Aspen Acres burn scar, the probability is too low for a flash flood
watch.

Tomorrow...Seasonable temperatures are expected this day and not
expecting too much during the afternoon time period. The best chance
of precip prior to 6 pm tomorrow will be over the southern Sangres.

Tomorrow night...and interesting scenario develops as the guidance
has rather high pops over all of the southeastern plains tomorrow
evening and tomorrow night. forcing for this precip is associated
with a short wave in the developing WNW flow aloft developing over
the region. The NBM POP numbers looked a bit overdone to me, and
have decreased these values to scattered values for most of the
evening /overnight time period.

The moisture late tomorrow over the AA burn scar may be of higher
quality, and later shifts may need to issue a flash flood watch for
the AA Burn scar for the Wed afternoon/evening time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Thursday, drier air is forecast to move into the interior sections
and it will likely be dry over the higher terrain. the best chance
of any showers will be over the far southeastern plains during the
late afternoon and evening time period. Temperatures will be
seasonable this day. Marginal critical fire weather conditions will
be possible over the interior mtns due to single digit min RH
values and breezy conditions.

Friday is expected to be mainly dry and much warmer, with mid 90s
most of plains and mid 80s valleys. It will be much drier over the
interior  and fire weather concerns will continua over the interior
mtns (Although RH values will be a bit higher than Thursdays values).

Weekend...Saturday will be cooler than Sunday (Mid 80s vs Low 90s).
Scattered storms are expected each day in the mtns with isolated
over the plains.

For early next week, statistical guidance still shows quite a bit of
variability, but overall it shows a cooling trend with a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region. The
variability is likely due in part to the timing of a cool front
which is forecast to come down the plains during the ~Tuesday-ish
time frame. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Shower and thunderstorms will be LIKELY today at KCOS and KPUB.
Strong gusty winds to ~40 knts and a period of low vis due to
rain will be possible. Best time frame for the thunder will be
roughly during the 23Z-03Z time frame this late afternoon/early
evening. Otherwise expect VFR conditions at the these two
airports.

VFR next 24 hours at KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hodanish
LONG TERM...Hodanish
AVIATION...Hodaninsh