098
FXUS65 KPUB 251731
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues today for urban areas along the I-25
corridor and lower Arkansas River Valley with high temperatures
possibly challenging records for this day.

- Isolated afternoon and evening high based showers/storms possible
today with gusty outflow winds the primary concern.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon, with
strong to severe storms possible across the plains.

- Afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday through
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper high builds over the region today bringing some of the hottest
temperatures so far this season across southern Colorado. With H7
temperatures similar to a degree warmer than yesterday, this should
net highs at least as warm as yesterday to a degree or two warmer.
Have leaned high temperatures closer to the 90th percentile of NBM
which is closer to guidance values and similar to yesterday`s
readings. These could challenge current records for this date which
are 93 in KALS, 98 in KCOS and 105 in KPUB, all set in 2012. KPUB
stands the best chance of seeing a record tie. Current Heat Advisory
still looks on track for the portions of the southern I-25 corridor
and lower Arkansas River valley counties.

Skies will start out mostly sunny, but another weak wave and
mid/high based moisture rotating through the upper ridge across CO
will lead to another round of shallow convective build ups/isolated
high based showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Main risk will be gusty erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph near high
based thunderstorms. Any rainfall will be spotty, brief and light.
HREF does suggest that convective coverage today will be more sparse
than yesterday`s.

Showers will quickly diminish this evening. A surface high dropping
through the central plains will back door a cool front into the
southeast plains late tonight.  This will boost dew points across
the southeast plains setting the stage for better thunderstorm
chances on Wednesday.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday: For the midweek period, an uptick in active weather is
anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. A short
wave drifting across the northern periphery of a ridge of high
pressure will push over the region during the day. As it does so,
forcing over the area will increase in response. Along with that, a
cold front will sag across the eastern plains during the day, with
rising moisture behind this front. With the uptick in both forcing
and moisture, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
during the afternoon hours, first initially along the mountains and
then spreading eastward across the plains. Some thunderstorms across
the plains may be strong to severe given the increase in moisture
and instability, with the greatest hazards being severe wind gusts
and large hail. Any precipitation present during the day will lessen
in coverage and intensity during the evening hours as forcing and
instability wane. As for temperatures, another hot day is expected,
with much of the area warming to around and slightly above seasonal
values, even despite a minor cold front passage early in the day.

Thursday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, active
weather continues. The aforementioned ridge will become more messy
as it partially flattens out, allowing for short waves to continue
to drift over the area. These waves will continue to bring periods
of enhanced forcing across the region. In addition to that, at least
modest moisture will remain in place. With the forcing and moisture
continuing, rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day,
especially along the mountains, with the greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Looking at
temperatures, the heat persist, with most of this period around and
slightly above seasonal values for late June to early July. With
that said though, another cold front is expected to push southward
during Saturday, and that will bring at least one day of "cooler"
temperatures and some relief from the hot stretch of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB over the
forecast period. There will be some weak storms developing aloft
primarily over the mountains - if one of those storms develops
near a forecast point then gusty and erratic winds will occur.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-093-
097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...SKELLY