588
FXUS65 KPUB 202320
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible from late this afternoon and
especially later this evening into the early Monday morning hours
over the plains.

- Unsettled weather from late Monday into late week, then drier
  and warmer for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 350 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 9 PM for
Kiowa and Prowers Counties. A supercell thunderstorm located
near Boyero will continue to drop southeast towards Kiowa and
Prowers counties this evening. Large hail 1.5 to 2 inches in
diameter, wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and an isolated tornado
threat will be possible with this storm. Elsewhere, the
forecast remains on track, with convection developing in the
9-11 PM time frame along the HWY 50 corridor. A couple could
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Main concern in the short term will be the likelihood of strong to
severe storms affecting the plains from late this afternoon through
early tomorrow morning. An isolated severe threat will occur mainly
over northern El Paso county and possibly Kiowa county late this
afternoon into early evening. A more substantial threat will develop
form mid evening into early tomorrow morning over the plains as a
strong boundary pushes across the plains assisted by a short wave at
mid levels. 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 40 knts of shear will be
sufficient for severe storm development as the upslope flow develops
after the front goes by. Large hail to 2", damaging winds of 60 mph
and and isolated tornado will be possible. There is also a low risk
of heavy rain developing over the Aspen Acres burn scar as the front
pushes into the mtns. There is some uncertainty if convection will
occur as the boundary hit the mtns/plains interface later this
evening.

Showers and storms will last into the overnight hours and locally
heavy rain will be possible over the far eastern plains during this
period. Showers will likely still be going after sunrise tomorrow
over the far eastern plains.

A brief reprieve in precip is expected tomorrow afternoon and early
evening, but another round of showers and storms develops tomorrow
evening over the mtns/plains interface extending over the eastern
plains. The storms are not expected to be strong tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

From Tuesday into Wednesday, another round of moist southwest flow
will develop over the region, and this will bring another round of
showers and storms to the region, with most of the heavier showers
falling south of US highway 50. The overall best chance of more
widespread heavier precip will occur wednesday afternoon with a
heavier band of precip over the far eastern plains Wed evening.

Thursday and Friday will remain unsettled over the region with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the two day
period.

For the weekend, it will be drier and warmer, with only isolated
showers and storms expected. Temps for the weekend will be in the
mid 80s plains and 70s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.

KCOS and KPUB...expect showers and thunderstorms to fill in
behind a boundary mid this evening, with low CIGS and gusty
outflow winds the main concerns. Thunderstorm potential winds
down late tonight with low CIGS at both terminals near 2 kft
well into the morning hours. Improvements to CIGS are not
expected until Monday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY