330
FXUS65 KPUB 091126
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
526 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm today, with dry conditions over
  the plains and increasing moisture in the mountains.

- Showers, at times moderate to heavy, are expected across the
  mountains Friday through Saturday.

- Flooding may be possible in the San Juans Friday through Saturday.

- Mountain showers persist on and off through midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

High pressure remains in place across the region, with southwest
flow aloft continuing to bring in more moisture. As we move
throughout the day, tropical moisture from the cyclone off the coast
of Mexico will continue funneling into the mountains, leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
PWATs are expected to steadily increase over the area, with a slowly
increasing chance of heavy rainfall. However, very little
instability is forecast over the higher terrain today, so other than
the heavy rain storm impacts should be minimal. Meanwhile,
conditions across the eastern plains remain dry, though cloud cover
will start increasing this afternoon, especially over I-25 and west.
Temperatures across the area remain far above normal, with mid-high
80s across the plains and 70s over the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Friday: For the last day of the week, active weather is anticipated
for portions of the region. Southwesterly flow will be in place over
south central and southeastern Colorado, bringing an increase in
orographic forcing. Along with that, moisture will be on the rise as
this flow begins to tap tropical moisture from a storm system in
the Pacific. With the increase in both forcing and moisture, showers
are expected to increase in coverage, though mainly along the
mountains where orographic forcing will be greatest. Given this
southwesterly flow, a few showers may spill across the valleys as
well throughout the day. As for the plains, dry conditions are
anticipated to prevail. Otherwise, breezy winds are expected for the
area, with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies for the region, but
particularly west of the I-25 corridor. Temperatures Friday will be
above seasonal values for mid October, especially across the plains.

Friday Night - Saturday: Heading into the weekend, active weather
continues, particularly for the mountains. Southwesterly flow will
persist over the area, though by this point the aforementioned
tropical system will be absorbed into the broader flow and ejected
across south central and southeastern Colorado, bringing a surge in
tropical moisture and forcing. With the large rise in forcing and
moisture, widespread showers are expected along the higher terrain,
but especially across the San Juan Mountains where 2-3 inches of
liquid are expected given favorable wind orientation into the
terrain allowing for strong and persistent orographic forcing.
Confidence is high (70-80%) in this QPF given strong agreement
between both deterministic and ensemble model guidance, some of
which show even higher values. In addition, most, if not all, of
this precipitation is expected to be rain given this is a warm
airmass and snow levels will be around 13,500 ft. Given the
precipitation forecast, some flooding will be possible across the
San Juan Mountains. Otherwise, showers are anticipated to spill
across the valleys throughout this period, though with much lighter,
and the plains are expected to remain dry. Outside of all of that,
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are anticipated to persist areawide,
with breezy conditions for many, especially across the plains and
San Luis Valley though, where wind gusts around 30 mph are expected.
Looking at temperatures, another above seasonal temperature day is
anticipated, but especially across the eastern plains, where
downsloping winds will keep temperatures well above seasonal values.

Sunday - Wednesday: For the remainder of the long term period, some
active weather will continue for portions of south central and
southeastern Colorado. Overall, southwesterly will persist over the
region, though with potential embedded waves/troughs influencing the
area. Model guidance is in agreement above the broad southwesterly
being in place, but not so much above how and when the embedded
waves will influence the area. This tends to lower forecast
confidence some, but overall, showers are anticipated to persist on
and off across the mountains given the orographic forcing in place,
with drier conditions across the valleys and plains. There may be an
increase in showers across the entire region Monday night into
Tuesday as another moisture tap gets pulled northward, but
confidence in how much precipitation will develop is low (30) as this
will be dependent on how one of the embedded waves evolves. Beyond
all of that, periods of increased cloud cover and breezy winds will
persist for south central and southeastern Colorado. As for
temperatures, Sunday will be the warmest day, with another above
seasonal temperature day expected. As for Monday onward, a cool down
is anticipated as a cold front is expected to drop southward across
the area, bringing a cool down to many, especially on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the next
24 hours. Winds will generally remain below 10 knots and follow
diurnal flow patterns, with increasing mid-level cloudiness starting
this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO