891
FXUS65 KPUB 022201 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms expected over the plains this evening

- Isolated risk for 60 MPH wind gusts over the counties
  bordering Kansas tomorrow afternoon and evening

- Hot temperatures return next week with limited showers and thunderstorms

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The Storm Prediction Center collaborated with WFO Pueblo to
issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for now through 9PM this
evening. The main hazards that are possible under the strongest
storms are 1-2 inch hail, 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado. The areas of concern are for Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, Baca,
and eastern Las Animas Counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing during the
beginning of the short term forecast period. A shortwave embedded in
a compressed upper level ridge located over the desert southwest
propagates over southern Colorado initiating thunderstorms over the
region, but once the thunderstorms reach the eastern plains where the
environment on the moist side of the dryline include 1500 J/kg, 40-
50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and a straight hodograph located aloft
where the LFC begins. Overall, 1-2" hail, 60-70 MPH wind gusts, and
an isolated tornado are possible between the hours of 5PM and 10PM.

Tomorrow thunderstorm chances decrease. As of the latest Storm
Prediction Center update, there is a Marginal Risk for severe
weather over the plains. However, a lot of the data suggests that
storms aren`t even going to develop. However, if they do, which my
thinking right now is that they will not, the main risk will be
gusty outflow of 60 MPH and primarily over the counties that border
Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Upper ridge of high pressure across the region has been slightly
finicky with positioning and strength, leading to continuous minor
adjustments to the promised warning and drying trend through the
extended period.

Sunday...High pressure over the Desert SW starts to build back
towards the Four Corners on Sunday, aiding in shunting llvl moisture
eastward. However, depending on which model guidance is followed,
development of the ridge axis varies. There is a disturbance that
crosses the north central US plains on Sunday, but depending on the
placement of the ridge axis, the activity it triggers could be
farther east in NE and KS. Looking at llvl moisture, forecast
dewpoints remain right around 60F near the eastern border, and bulk
shear at around 30 kts midday increase to near 50 kts by early
evening. Therefore the potential is there, and the Marginal that SPC
has painted across the far eastern CO plains is a nod to the severe
potential. Current precip chances are just isolated Sunday afternoon
and evening, so this is a situation where there may be very little
activity at all but anything that does start could go severe with
strong gusty outflow winds and large hail. Stay tuned as this will
surely get adjusted. Plan on high temps in the 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four Corners
with an amplified ridge axis over NM and CO. This is when the true
warming and drying set in, with good model agreement. Precip chances
will be isolated at best and tied to the higher terrain for Mon, and
current forecast for Tue is completely dry. Elevated fire weather
conditions start to develop both days, spotty for Mon but a bit more
widespread for Tue so following shifts will need to take another
look at this concern. As for high temps, look for mid 80s for the
high valleys and 980s for the plains on Mon, then mid to upper 80s
for the high valleys and 90s to around 100F for the plains on Tue.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued very hot with afternoon
readings expected to be above seasonal normals. The upper ridge
starts to flatten, with multiple shortwaves to the north allowed
greater influence for CO. Precip chances for Wed continue to look
isolated at best, mainly across the higher terrain, but then
convection chances increase for Thu and Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the mts and isolated convection for the
plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout
the forecast period. There will be thunderstorms in the vicinity
of KCOS and KPUB during the afternoon, with the best chance for
KCOS to have a thunderstorm develop overhead, potentially
lowering visibility and cloud heights with LIFR conditions
(PROB30 group included in TAF). There is less of that chance
for KPUB. As weak storms do develop over the I-25 corridor gusty
outflow winds are expected to impact bot KCOS and KPUB. The
exact intensity and direction are uncertain at this point, but
our latest thoughts are in the TAF. KALS will have gusty west-
southwesterly winds develop that will weaken at sunset.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKELLY
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SKELLY