607
FXUS65 KPUB 091114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot through Tuesday with Heat Advisories issued for
  Sunday over the the lower Arkansas River Valley and El Paso
  County

- Relief from the very hot temperatures begin on Wednesday with
  more widespread thunderstorms and flash flooding concerns for
  the rest of the period for the burn scars, urban areas, and
  areas with saturated soils

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Updated to issue a Heat Advisory for Monday from 11 AM to 7 PM
for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Temperatures
will remain hot, with mid 90s to lower 100s. Continue exercise
caution with outdoor activities and remain hydrated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The upper level high pressure center is located over the four
corners region of the desert southwest. With the present
location of the high, the western US is more favored for
monsoonal moisture - however in the long term, this will set-up
Colorado nicely for widespread thunderstorms when that ridge of
high pressure begins to propagate to the east. For today hot
temperatures are expected with high based convection that will
lead to very strong outflow boundary. There is a Heat Advisory
from 12pm to 8pm for the lower Arkansas River Valley and El Paso
County with high temperatures reaching the upper 90s to around
108F over the plains. The mountain valleys will be in the upper
80s to low 90s. These elevated showers will develop primarily
over the mountains but will move over the lower elevations
throughout the afternoon and evening. Wind gusts up to 50 MPH
are possible. As an example, late Saturday evening there was a
rogue 70 MPH wind gust over Colorado Springs Airport - it`s a
similar atmosphere today as it was yesterday, therefore locally
higher wind gusts are possible. Low temperatures will be in the
low to upper 60s over the plains and the 40s to low 50s over
the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Very similar high temperatures are expected on Monday as they are on
Sunday, so we`ll have to determine if we are going to issue another
Heat Advisory during the forecast packages tomorrow. A little bit
more moisture is expected on Monday, so perhaps a few more heavy
raining thunderstorms across the region, but the predominant impact
is expected to be gusty outflow winds once again.

One more hot day on Tuesday with thunderstorm coverage increasing
once again - another Heat Advisory will be possible. By Wednesday
the upper level high pressure is pushed to the SE, which will allow
for all the built up monsoonal moisture to west to propagate to the
east and for the main monsoon plume to move east, which will
equate to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. There are
elevated concerns for flash flooding over the Aspen Acres and 24
burn scars and over urban areas. As the week continues there
will be a risk for flash flooding over areas with saturated
soils.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Westerly winds
gusting near 25 kts are possible this afternoon into early
evening.

KCOS and KPUB...overall, VFR conditions through the next 24
hours at both terminals. Afternoon high based showers and
thunderstorms are possible with the main concern being outflow
wind gusts near 40 kts, from late afternoon into early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ083>086-089-093-097-098.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...MOZLEY