209
FXUS65 KPUB 152322
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several degrees cooler tomorrow

- Accumulating snow moving into the San Juan mountains late tomorrow
through Monday morning.

- Active weather pattern continues into next week with rain and snow
showers possible, especially for the mountains with  temperatures
cooling to near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Another warm day was occurring across the region this afternoon,
although cooler air was filtering in from the east as a weak
backdoor cool front was pushing into the region. temps over the
southeast plains were in the mid 70s most region while up int NE
CO/SW NE temps were in teh mid 60s.

For tonight, temps over the plains are expected to be about 4 to 8
degrees cooler early tomorrow morning than they were this morning as
the cooler air continues to filter into the region. Over the higher
terrain temps will be similar to this mornings lows. Skies are
expected to be mostly clear tonight with just passing higher
clouds.

Tomorrow, temps are expected to be 3 to 6 F cooler tomorrow as
compared to today over the plains with temps becoming several
degrees cooler in the mtns, especially the San Juan mountains.
Clouds will be on the increase across the CONTDVD, and snow showers
will move into the higher elevations by late in the afternoon. Over
the remainder of the region, clouds will increase over the rest of
the higher terrain regions with mostly clear skies over the
lower elevations. After coordinating with WFO GJT, decided not
to issue any highlights for the San Juans attm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Upper low weakens and fills as it tracks into the northern U.S.
Rockies with energy in the base of the trough maximizing across
southern CO Sunday night as it swings through. Snow levels drop
and winds increase with snow intensifying Sunday evening across
the eastern San Juan mountains before spreading north and
eastward into the central and southeast mountains overnight.
Greatest accumulations are still advertised across the eastern
San Juan mountains where National Blend of Models shows 50-70
percent probabilities of over 6 inches. Probabilities of higher
accumulations have dropped with the 00z runs, with less than 10%
of members suggesting accumulations over a foot. Elsewhere
probabilities of snow are considerably less with most areas
remaining under 3-4 inches across the Sawatch and higher Sangre
De Cristo ranges for the 90 to 95th percentiles. Still suspect
the eastern San Juan mountains may need a Winter Weather
Advisory Sunday night through Monday morning, but with the
farther west track of the upper low, am concerned that snow
totals could continue its downward trend if further changes in
the storm track and intensity occur so will hold off on
highlights for now and let day shift re-assess.

Winds increase Sunday night through Monday morning with westerly
winds expected to spread into the southeast mountains and lower
eastern slopes after midnight through Monday morning. Could see
some gusts up to 50-55 mph along the southern I-25 corridor
south of Colorado City to Raton, with gusts to 60-70 mph across
the eastern slopes of the southern Sangres. Have to get into the
95th and greater percentile range of the NBM to see spotty high
wind criteria gusts but this will bear close monitoring.

System passes to the north and east on Monday with snow tailing
down in the mountains. Temperatures cool a few degrees for all
areas, but still remain above normal for most areas. An active
weather pattern continues through the extended as more energy
moves into the western U.S. with another closed low taking shape
across CA then ejecting out across the Rockies with various
tracks and timings. We should see another mid week system bring
snow to the southwest mountains on Wednesday with some spill
over possible into the plains as it ejects into the central
plains. Overall precipitation chances look greatest over the
Continental Divide and southwest mountains, with considerably
less precipitation possible for the plains, though ensemble
means do hint at some wetting rains (around a tenth or 2)
possible for the southern plains depending on how deep/closed
off the system remains as it crosses the mountains. Too soon to
say on those details, but overall temperatures should cool down
to closer to seasonal normals with mountain snow showers
possible, and some isolated rain showers possible for the
plains. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 422 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds are expected to remain light, around and less than 10
knots, through tomorrow afternoon for all three TAF sites. With that
said there is potential for winds to start gusting to around 20
knots for KALS near the end of this TAF period, though confidence is
low (30%) on persistent wind gusts developing at this time, so have
left this out of the official TAF product for now. Otherwise, dry
conditions with pockets of high level clouds is anticipated through
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...SIMCOE