227
FXUS65 KPUB 182015
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
215 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in place for the eastern plains
  tonight. Take measures now to protect temperature-sensitive
  outdoor plants.

- Warm day expected for Sunday, then gusty winds possible late Sunday
  night into Monday along the lee slopes.

- Another frontal passage Monday will lead to strong northerly
  winds through the day and widespread critical fire weather
  conditions. Fire Weather Watch in effect Monday afternoon for
  the I-25 Corridor and portions of the plains.

- Freeze possible over the Plains again Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Currently...Dry cold front surging south across the eastern plains
has produced gusty northerly winds at 25 to 30 mph and dry
conditions. There have been some intermittent reports of critical
fire weather conditions in spots, but for the most part it has not
been a widespread problem today. Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into
the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for
the plains.

Tonight...Upper disturbance to the north will continue east into the
central US plains, allowing for a broad ridge of high pressure to
build into the western third of the country. The post-frontal surge
of colder air across the eastern plains tonight, coupled with mostly
clear to clear skies and decreasing winds, will lead to the first
widespread freeze/frost threat for the eastern plains and I-25
Corridor. Existing warnings and advisories in place looked valid,
and just added eastern Fremont County since latest guidance
indicated colder air pushing into Canon City and vicinity. Take
steps to protect sensitive plants and outdoor equipment. Plan on
overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s for the high valleys, and
upper 20s to mid 30s for the plains.

Tomorrow... After a very cold start, the upper flow becomes more
westerly as another upper shortwave moves into the Pacific NW.
Models indicate that enhanced mixing will help boost afternoon high
temps well above normal with forecast readings in the 60s to around
70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains.
There may be some spotty critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon due to breezy winds and very dry conditions, but the
highest probability will be in those normal gap-flow, wind-prone
areas, and not widespread enough to warrant any sort of Fire Weather
highlight. Regardless, outdoor burning activities should be closely
monitored or delayed until a better weather day. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

No significant changes to the extended period, with slightly
better agreement with the system Wed-Thurs next week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...model guidance is a bit further
west with the upper storm track, and puts the Palmer Divide
region in the westerly flow trough base, as opposed to glancing
northwesterly flow. Model guidance has increased winds along the
Eastern Mountains and lee slopes late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The shear structure is very forward, and should help
limit wave activity. That being said, an occasional gust near 50
mph may be possible along the lee slopes heading into Monday
morning. These winds will also keep overnight lows on the warmer
side, with mid slope areas in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while
the rest of the Plains sees 40s for lows. By Monday, the main
upper trough will shift well to our east and send a cold front
across the Plains by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures look to
be slightly cooler, with lower to mid 70s across the lower
elevations. Winds will increase behind the front late in the
day, and shift northerly. A few gusts near 40 mph may be
possible out near the Kansas border. Winds look to subside
overnight, as the upper system continues east, and upper ridging
moves into Colorado. Temperatures will likely fall overnight
into Tuesday morning, with another frost or freeze possible.
Again, those with sensitive plants, exposed hoses and pipes may
want to consider taking precautions to protect them. The upper
ridge axis will shift east across Colorado on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be cooler, with mainly 60s across the region
for highs.

Updated - with the expected strong winds on Monday, coupled with
very dry conditions, decided to go ahead and issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the I-25 Corridor and portions of the plains
late Monday morning through the afternoon. Surrounding offices
have coordinated and have issued watches as well.

Wednesday through Thursday...models in better agreement on the
storm track, bring an upper low from the Desert Southwest across
Colorado. There does continue to be differences timing.
Scattered rain and high elevation snow showers will move into
the Continental Divide by Wednesday afternoon. The upper system
then forecast to track east across Colorado and into Kansas on
Thursday. Low chances for showers will be possible across the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, before precipitation
comes to an end Thursday evening. The GFS remains the fastest
solution, ending precipitation earlier, while the ECMWF and
Canadian are a bit slower and hang on the precipitation longer.
Temperatures in the NBM guidance likely a bit warm, with highs
in the 60s and 70s, and they will likely need to be adjusted.
Snow levels will remain high, with minor accumulations above 10
kft.

Friday and Saturday...upper level high pressure will fill in
behind the departing system, with a return to dry and mild
conditions heading into next week.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. Plan on gusty N-NE Surface winds this afternoon, with
gusts nearing 30 kts for KCOS and KPUB from 20z until 01z. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ222-226>231-234.
Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ083-094-099.
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ084>089-093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE