902
FXUS65 KPUB 272036
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
236 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active monsoon continues through Friday with daily showers and
  thunderstorms likely, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding
  the primary concern but also an isolated severe thunderstorm
  risk across the southeast plains.

- Thunderstorm chances gradually decrease through the weekend
  into early next week, with a slow return of warmer and drier
  weather developing into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Lee troughing has brought some drying westerly winds to
portions of southern CO with dew points falling into the upper
40s to lower 50s along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains
while temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to around 90.
A boundary evident in satellite loops is dropping southward
through eastern El Paso County into Lincoln county. Dew points
behind this boundary are in the low 60s with temps in the 70s.
Even farther west across the mountains we are starting to see
dew points drop back into the 40s and even upper 30s.

Thunderstorms have been firing across the mountains and will
continue to move eastward into the adjacent plains.  Storms that
fire along and north of the boundary which will be sagging southward
into northern portions of our forecast area will tap the greater
CAPE and better shear for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms.
Hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be
possible with the isolated stronger cells.  Otherwise, with
precipitable waters still running around 100-150% of normal, locally
heavy rainfall capable of causing flash flooding on already
saturated regions will be the primary risk for storms anywhere
today.  Heaviest rain and strongest storms appear to target
locations along and north of highway 50 and east of I-25.  Baca
county on the east side of the surface trough axis could also see an
isolated strong to severe storm.  Mixed layer CAPEs are running up
to 1000 to even 1500 J/kg near the KS border.  Activity will move
eastward and gradually diminish this evening as the frontal boundary
pushes through the remainder of southeast CO by morning.  Kept low
temperatures close to guidance for now.

Thursday will be a little cooler but another active day for
thunderstorms across the region as another impulse of monsoon
moisture gradually works up from the south. Surface dew points
should maintain in the 50s across the plains with mean CAPE off HREF
approaching 1000 J/kg.  With easterly surface winds beneath
westerlies aloft, deep layer shears may be adequate for another
round of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the
southeast plains, and high res models suggest convection lingering
into the night across the plains as shortwave energy gradually
approaches from the west.  However, locally heavy rainfall and the
attendant flash flood risk will be the primary concern. Some hail
around 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 will be possible with the
isolated stronger storms Thursday afternoon and evening. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Thursday Night and Friday...

Many models suggest precip lingers through much of Thursday
night, especially on the plains, as weak upper wave is slow to
exit the state, and will hold on to pops at most locations into
Friday morning. Brief break in precip after sunrise Fri, then
another round of afternoon convection develops over the
mountains, rolling onto the plains late afternoon/evening. CAPE
(1000-1500 J/KG) and shear (0-6km bulk shear around 40 kts)
climb a bit, suggesting some stronger storms are possible on
the plains, and while heavy rain and flash flooding will be the
main hazard, a couple low end severe storms may be possible.
Max temps will again run slightly below seasonal averages.

Saturday Onwards..

Moisture begins to decrease over the mountains Sat as main
moist plume shifts south, and expect a noticeable decrease in
storms coverage over the high terrain during the day. Better
moisture lingers along and east of I-25, and expect at least
scattered storms once again, though with PWAT values slowly
falling, threat of heavy rainfall will be lessening. Continued
drying Sunday through Tuesday should reduce storm coverage and
intensity all areas through the period, though we likely won`t
completely end convection given wet ground and available
moisture from recent rainfall. Pops look to stay mainly isolated
to low end scattered all three days, best chances over the
higher terrain. High temps will slowly climb back toward
seasonal levels early next week, though no extreme heat is
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and evening with
TSRA developing over the mountains and valleys around noon and
spreading off into the adjacent plains during the afternoon and
evening. Have included an Prob30 for all three TAF sites with
the earliest start time at KALS at 18z, and a bit latter 20-22z
at KCOS and KPUB. Brief MVFR cigs/vis will be possible under
the stronger storms with +TSRA along with gusty erratic outflow
winds up to 40 kts. Activity should pull east of the terminals
during the late evening with VFR cloudiness persisting
overnight. If rain occurs at the terminals some patchy ground
fog will be possible. Given the light drainage winds at all
three terminals did not include fog in the TAFs at this point as
odds look too low. Another round of thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday afternoon. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT