869
FXUS65 KPUB 300450
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1050 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture gradually increases across CO with another
  day of limited high based thunderstorms for the plains on
  Sunday, but better chances for wetting rains across the
  mountains and Continental Divide.

- Highest chance for heavy rainfall across the plains will be
  Monday with an elevated risk for Flash Flooding of burn scars.


- Drier weather returns for mid week before another influx of
  monsoon moisture returns to the mountains into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Relatively quiet at the start of the period, with isolated
showery activity beginning to develop along and west of the
Continental Divide. Elsewhere, dry weather is in place but with
an expansive cloud shield in place over much of southern
Colorado. As precip increases in coverage this afternoon,
anticipate cloudier conditions for most of the area for the
remainder of the day. While temperatures have risen well into
the 80s and 90s so far, this cloud cover should keep temps from
rising too much further this afternoon. With the upper ridge
situated just to the southeast, the area will remain on the edge
of slightly stronger and more energetic flow which should keep
much of the precip development to the northwest. However,
forcing should be enough to develop isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, with
the highest chances staying west of I-25. Lowering dewpoints
today is indicative of the drier air that is still in place,
which will also limit coverage and even intensity. This along
with rather weak instability in place, don`t anticipate any
severe weather this afternoon, with the risks from any stronger
expected to be gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, lightning, and
spotty light to moderate rainfall. While widespread heavy
rainfall is not anticipated, there is a low to medium chance for
locally heavy rainfall across the central mountains.

Precip development should diminish by early to mid evening,
however, some of the short term guidance is indicating returning
showers to the southwest mountains and mountain valleys late
this evening into early Sunday morning. Can`t completely rule
this out given persistent southwest flow, as well as satellite
imagery showing additional upstream energy. So, did increase
pops, but later forecasts may need to further increase. For
Sunday, lingering cloud cover and cooler 700mb temps will
support slightly cooler high temps. Similar setup on Sunday will
bring another day isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development. However, it does look like the flow does dip
further south, which would help steer more energy across the
area. This should help with some increased coverage and even
intensity, and also expand coverage further east into the
plains. While the risk of severe weather is low on Sunday,
periods of locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk to keep
an eye on.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms coverage continues to increase each
day through Monday as the active monsoon plume remains over the
CO and a well defined disturbance moves through southwest flow
Monday afternoon and night.

Monday still looks like the wettest day of the period, though
timing of the shortwave Monday night is not well juxtaposed with
peak heating, which could reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Will need to monitor the timing/position of a cold front as it
drops through the southeast plains Monday/Monday night. If the
front moves in during the day on Monday, east to southeast
upslope flow may provide a better focus and sufficient
confidence in flash flooding for the Aspen Acres burn scar to
warrant a Flash Flood Watch. However, not all models agree with
this timing and details will need to be refined as we get
closer.

Tuesday looks drier behind the shortwave, though there is still
sufficient moisture for isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Then moisture gradually increases again as
southwest flow picks up some Pacific moisture and spreads it
across southern CO through late week. Best precipitation chances
appear focused across the mountains (mainly Continental Divide)
where better moisture fetch will be in place. East of the
mountains, moisture looks high based again, though at least some
isolated thunderstorms should return to the forecast for most
areas by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM
MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Main short-term aviation concern will be the gust front moving
south off the Palmer Divide. Expect an hour or two of gusty
north/northeasterly winds at KCOS and KPUB before winds become
calm and more diurnal by around sunrise Sunday. Added mention of
convection tomorrow afternoon as storms seem likely along the
central Continental Divide. High-res guidance depicts a rather
robust outflow boundary moving south off the Palmer Divide into
the late afternoon and evening that will likely impact KCOS and
KPUB. Showers and storms my linger in across the front range and
plains into the late portion of the TAF but will remain
scattered in nature, so kept the PROB30 group to account for
this.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...NWS Pueblo