152
FXUS65 KPUB 170456
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1056 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue this evening, some strong to
  severe. Strong winds, hail, and heavy rain/flash flooding on
  the table.

- Afternoon storms are expected again on Monday, mostly over the
  eastern mountains and Raton Mesa.

- A bit drier through the rest of the week, though some scattered
  storms will still be possible each afternoon starting Weds.

- Warmer temps return this week and into the weekend. Eastern
  plains may hit triple digits this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Updated to expire the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Plains
at 9 PM. The line of storms near the Kansas border has shifted
east into Kansas. There are also a few cells across Teller, El
Paso and Pueblo Counties. CAM guidance has this activity
dissipating through midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

With the monsoon plume funneling right into our area, thunderstorm
activity is expected to move across our area through the rest of the
afternoon and into this evening. Strong to severe storms are still
anticipated, with current analysis showing 1000 J/kg of CAPE along I-
25, increasing to 2000+ further east. Additionally, the eastern half
of our CWA shows 30 knots or so of effective bulk shear. Dewpoints
remain in the 50s over most of these areas as well, close to 60 in
places.

Storms will continue to initiate over our eastern mountains, pushing
over the plains within the next few hours and intensifying. Main
storm hazards remain on track from previous forecasts, with outflow
winds 60-70 mph, hail up to 1.5 inches, heavy rain and flash
flooding. Flood Watch for Aspen Acres remains in effect thru 8pm.

Storms will move off to the east later tonight, with mild
temperatures and lingering low-level moisture setting things up for
tomorrow.

Monday...

The upper ridge will build back in over our area on Monday, kicking
the monsoon plume to our west and giving us a slightly drier day.
However, some lingering low-level moisture should coincide with a
weak passing shortwave aloft, allowing for some afternoon
thunderstorm formation, though noticeably less than today. The
majority of convection will form over our southeast mountains,
spreading close to the Raton Mesa and far southern plains later in
the day, while a few isolated to scattered storms will be possible
over the San Juans and the Pikes Peak Region. Storms along the
terrain will be on the weaker side, with outflow to 50 mph and hail
up to half an inch or so. If storms manage to persist long enough to
move onto the eastern plains, they will encounter moist,
southeasterly surface winds and better forcing thanks to the passing
shortwave. Some stronger to severe storms (60 mph winds, 1 inch
hail) will be possible late afternoon into early evening.
Additionally, any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
so flash flooding will still be a concern over burn scars, though
again coverage and confidence are both lower for Monday than today.
Finally, highs will be a few degrees warmer across the region, with
mid-80s to low-90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Long-range forecast remains on track, with the upper high expected
to build back in over the Four Corners Region. This will amplify the
upper ridge, leading to drier conditions across the area through
most of the week. After much drier conditions on Tuesday, lingering
low to mid-level moisture will allow for more scattered thunderstorm
activity each day. Storms will first form over the mountains, with a
passing front on Wednesday bringing precipitation back to the plains
as well. Meanwhile, high temps will increase across the board, with
high-80s over the valleys and high-90s over the eastern plains, with
a low but non-zero chance for some more triple digits heading into
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Rain showers and thunderstorms at the start of this TAF period are
expected to end early, with dry conditions prevailing through most
of the night and through tomorrow. With that said, there is a
possibility of isolated thunderstorms impacting either TAF site
again tomorrow afternoon, though confidence in coverage is less than
the past few days. Regardless though, brief periods of heavy rain,
gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be possible with any
thunderstorm that impacts the TAF sites. Otherwise, pockets of mid
to high level clouds will persist through tomorrow, with relatively
light winds, around and less than 10 knots, expected outside of any
storms.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots
through this TAF period. Otherwise, pockets of mid to high level
clouds and dry conditions are anticipated. With that said, an
isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out tomorrow, though
confidence remains very low, less than 10%, on this. IF a
thunderstorm were to impact the TAF site, brief periods of heavy
rain, gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE