153
FXUS65 KPUB 012312
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over and near the
  mountains through mid week with temperatures returning at or a
  little above normal.

- An uptick in thunderstorms possible late week into next
  weekend along with a cool down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Isolated thunderstorms have developed over the mountains with best
coverage across the eastern San Juans and southern Sangre De Cristo
mountains.  Given the elevated nature to the moisture, the main
storm risks will be lightning, localized gusty outflow winds up to
40 mph and some brief moderate rainfall.  Activity will diminish
early this evening with loss of heating with another cool night for
overnight lows given clear skies and dry surface dew points.

Thunderstorm coverage may increase a bit on Tuesday as weak
disturbances within the upper ridge over the Great Basin rotate
through northerly flow aloft across CO.  Moisture quality is still
pretty poor in the low levels but there is a bit more elevated CAPE
on Tuesday. This should support slightly better chances for
thunderstorms over the central and southern mountains Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph, lightning
and brief moderate rainfall will be the primary storm risks.
Otherwise, high temperatures will top out similar to a degree or two
warmer than those of today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Tuesday Night - Thursday: For much of the week, relatively quiet
weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Northwesterly flow will be in place over the region as ridging sits
to the west and troughing to the east. While no major forcing is
expected, persistent orographic forcing will be in place with this
pattern. Along with that, modest moisture is anticipated to remain
in place, despite the northerly component to the flow. With some
forcing and moisture in place, isolated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, though mostly
along the mountains where forcing will be maximized. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected for much of the area through this
timeframe. Beyond all of that, with modest flow, winds are
anticipated to remain relatively light, with clear skies early
each day giving way to partly cloudy skies during the
afternoons. Looking at temperatures, thanks to a cold front
passage around mid week, much of the region will hover around to
slightly below seasonal values for early September.

Friday - Sunday: Heading into the weekend, a pattern change is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically,
a shortwave is anticipated to push across the region during this
period, leading to increase forcing. Along with that, an uptick in
moisture is expected as southerly to southwesterly flow advects
better moisture over the area. With the increase in both forcing and
moisture, shower and thunderstorms chances are expected to increase,
but especially along the mountains where forcing will remain the
greatest. Outside of that, winds are expected to remain relatively
light, with an increase in cloud cover anticipated, especially
during the afternoons when any showers and storms will be most
prevalent. As for temperatures, much of the region will continue to
stay near to slightly below seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three terminals for the next 24
hours. There will be a slight (30%) chance for brief MVFR ceilings
and visibilities due to thunderstorms at KALS Tuesday afternoon,
mainly after 21Z. Otherwise, expect scattered to broken mid and
upper-level cloud cover, and mainly light easterly winds at KCOS and
KPUB, with mainly west winds tomorrow afternoon at KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR