958
FXUS65 KPUB 031728
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1028 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, near normal temperatures and increased cloud cover
  arrive for our Monday.

- Dry and warm across southern Colorado through the extended
  period, with elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Currently..

A weak cold front has pushed across our plains, switching our winds
around to northeasterly. This has been the most noticeable effect
thus far, as temperatures remain around 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year, with readings ranging from the 40s
over the Pikes Peak region, to 50s and low 60s over the rest of the
plains as of 1 AM. Dewpoints are mostly in the teens and 20s, with a
few observations showing low 30s on our far eastern plains. Winds
are either northeasterly behind the cold front on the plains, or are
following normal drainage patterns in the high country.

Today and Tonight..

Models show cooler air continuing to filter in behind last night`s
cold front, which will help to keep today`s daytime highs much
cooler than yesterday`s record breaking heat. Today`s highs looks to
be very close to seasonal normals on the plains, with highs in the
upper 50s for the Pikes Peak region, and low to mid 60s elsewhere on
the plains. The warmest spot on the map will be the San Luis Valley,
which will likely see highs around 5 to 8 degrees warmer than
normal, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Another factor helping
to keep us cooler will be increased mid and upper-level moisture
passing over the region associated with a minor shortwave. This
feature doesn`t look to bring enough energy or forcing for any
precipitation, but increased mid and upper-level cloud cover this
afternoon will also help to keep daytime highs cooler than
yesterday. Winds will stay light on the plains today, with gusts to
around 25 mph possible over the high country.

Overnight lows look to remain warmer than normal for areas south of
Highway 50, where continued mixing and westerly/southwesterly flow
looks to increase heading into the overnight hours. For areas along
and north of Highway 50, high res models suggest winds will be
weaker, allowing these areas to cool more efficiently. These areas
will likely be several degrees cooler than what we are seeing early
this morning, though still warmer than normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

No changes to the extended forecast, with systems Thursday and
Saturday glancing by the area. Overall, dry, mild and a couple
of elevated fire weather days.

Tuesday...flat, zonal westerly flow will spread across southern
Colorado on Tuesday, with temperatures warming back through the
70s to lower 80s across the Plains. Gap wind prone areas of
Fremont and Huerfano Counties could see elevated fire weather
concerns Tuesday afternoon. At this time, conditions do not look
widespread enough or long enough to warrant a fire weather
watch, but this will likely need to be monitored.

Tuesday night through Friday...flat, zonal flow will continue
into Wednesday across the region. A weak cold front will arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which will knock about 5
degrees off afternoon highs. Most areas on the Plains will see
lower to mid 70s. An upper trough is forecast to dig south out
of the Northern Rockies and slide southeast into the Central
Plains on Wednesday night through Thursday. Models continue to
come in drier for the Central Mountains, with the latest runs
keeping all snow showers well north of the Central Mountains.
Winds, look to increase across the higher elevations late
Wednesday night, and spread east into the Plains on Thursday
afternoon. Mixing should allow for temperatures to warm back
through the 70s. In addition, more widespread elevated fire
weather conditions are possible across the Plains. Expect a cold
front associated with the upper trough to arrive Thursday night
into Friday morning. Highs on Friday look cooler, with mostly
60s across the Plains.

Saturday...the next upper system is forecast to drop southeast
out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central Plains on
Saturday. Again, the main impacts may be a few isolated snow
showers over the Central Mountains, north of Cottonwood Pass.
Any snow accumulations look minor at this time. Another cold
front will arrive on the Plains by Saturday, which will help
keep temperatures in the 60s for highs.

Sunday and Monday...southern Colorado looks to be stuck in
northwest flow aloft, with a slow moving trough to the east, and
building high pressure to the west. The coolest day looks like
Sunday, with upper 50s to lower 60s. By Monday, heights begin to
rise, and temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 60s.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. An uptick in winds is expected this afternoon as mixing
becomes established, but especially for KCOS, where breezier winds
are anticipated. Otherwise, dry conditions and mid to high level
clouds will persist through this TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR