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FXUS65 KPUB 261921
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
121 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions through Sunday.

- Another storm system approaches for the upcoming work week,
  bringing the potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms
  to the entire area through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Currently...Beautiful day across the region with plenty of sun as
upper high pressure starts to build in. Temps as of 1 PM have
climbed into the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s
to lower 80s for the plains, with another 2-5 degrees of warming
likely this afternoon.

Tonight through Sunday...Upper ridge amplifies across the region
this evening, then the ridge axis shifts slightly to the east
tomorrow as another Pacific trough starts to strengthen and dip
south along the West Coast. This will increase southwest flow aloft,
boosting temps across the area while at the same time aiding in
moisture advection across the Four Corners. While much of the day
will be dry for the entire forecast area, by the evening isolated
showers creep back into the Continental Divide, which then becomes
more scattered in nature overnight as a closed low pushes onshore
into central CA. Mostly clear skies tonight and drier air should
provide for a cooler night across the high valleys, with lows in the
mid 30s to lower 40s, while the plains see minimums in the mid 40s
to mid 50s. Plan on highs tomorrow in the 70s for the high valleys,
and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Monday...Model solutions are staying somewhat consistent and still
on track. The upper ridge over the central US weakens even more and
continues to push to the east. The incoming Pacific closed low
system strengthens as it drops south across CA, while at the same
time Hurricane Polo moves onshore across the CA Baja and into
Mexico, feeding abundant moisture up into the Desert SW. Model
trends indicate that by Monday morning precip chances jump up
considerably along the Continental Divide, then these high chances
then spread from west to east through the day, increasing to
scattered pops for the eastern plains by the night. This trend is
the same as what was offered yesterday, though QPF amounts are
starting to be more focused, with around an inch of rain for he SW
mts through Monday, .3 to .5 of an inch for the rest of the
Continental Divide and Sangres, and then less than a tenth for the
rest of the area. WPC has a Slight area for excessive rainfall over
the Four Corners nosing into the SW mts, but has indicated that they
will increase this area to a Moderate. Therefore, a Flash Flood
Watch for the SW mts will be likely in the near future, though
wanted to hold off at this time to allow following shifts another
look. As for temps, increased cloud cover and incoming precip will
cool the higher elevations and valleys, but it should be one more
warm day across the eastern plains. Therefore, look for highs in the
60s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains.

Tuesday through Thursday...Better agreement between the long range
models for mid-week now, as the closed upper low absorbs the
remnants of Hurricane Polo and track s east across AZ on Tue, NM on
Wed, then northeast over the OK and TX panhandles on Thu. Latest QPF
amounts over this 3 day period are showing a range of 1.5 to nearly
4 inches of rain, focusing on the eastern mts and plains, roughly
from Pueblo and Crowley counties southward. Additional Flash Flood
Watches may be necessary, especially for those areas already
experiencing saturated grounds. This will be a cooler period through
the extended due to extensive cloud cover and ongoing precip, with
highs each day in the 60s for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s
for the plains.

Friday...The NBM warms Friday a few degrees as the system exits the
area and precip chances dwindle. This will be highly dependent on
track of the upper low, with some models hinting at the low
lingering in the area for another 24 hours. Since this is identical
to what models indicated for Thu, just yesterday, this will likely
go through additional changes. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fog has lifted across the San Luis Valley as of 18z, so VFR
conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. Did introduce areas of fog for KALS starting overnight
by 10z, with IFR or even LIFR conditions developing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE