282
FXUS65 KPUB 122001
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
201 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flooding possible once again across the San Juan mtn region
starting tomorrow and lasting into Tuesday.

- Cool front pushing into region will bring cooler air to the plains
tomorrow.

- Mountains wet, plains dry tomorrow during the day.

- Isolated to scattered mountain showers continue through much
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Currently...

A cold front was slowly moving into the region early this afternoon.
Around 1 pm. it was oozing slowly southward and extended from
northeast El Paso county into northeast Kiowa county.

Today and into tonight...

Drier air as moved into the region, and it will remain dry over most
of the region through tonight. The only area which will see an
increasing chance of rain towards sunrise will be over the eastern
San Juan mtn region.

The cool front mentioned above will continue to slowly push
southward and should cross the Springs area late this afternoon and
move across the plains this evening. Gusty east to northeast winds
will develop after the frontal passage and will last a couple of
hours before decreasing. No significant precip is anticipated with
the front. Some clouds will develop after the front goes by.

Min temps tonight should fall into the 40s across the plains
and mid 30s across the larger valleys.

Tomorrow...

The main concern is the return of flooding across the San Juans
tomorrow. The ground over this region is already saturated and
flooding has occurred over parts of the region with rockslides and
road washouts. Per DESI guidance, heaviest rains over this region
should occur during the 12 noon monday through 6 am Tuesday time
frame, with the precip redeveloping towards sunrise tomorrow
morning. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is anticipated.

Over the remainder of the higher terrain, scattered showers will be
likely over the remainder of the mtn/high valley region, The top of
the Sangres may also see some locally heavy rain tomorrow afternoon
into the evening.

Some showers may push into the I-25 corridor region late tomorrow
afternoon. MAx temps will be much cooler tomorrow with highs around
60F across N El Paso county with 60s over the remainder of the
plains. 60s will occur over the larger part of the valleys.

As for snow, some accumulating snow is likely at the very high
elevations of the mountains tomorrow, but would expect any
significant accumulations will likely occur above treeline, and will
likely occur during the time of the heaviest precipitation.
/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Monday Night - Locally heavy rain will continue over the San
juans, and Plains should see a chance of showers and isolated
thunder during the evening hours. A better chance of high
elevation snow will occur during this time period as cooler air
aloft moves into the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday: For much of the early week, active
weather will continue for south central and southeastern
Colorado. Southwesterly flow will remain in place between the
aforementioned troughing and ridging, with orographic forcing
persisting. The moisture plume will still be in place and
advecting over the region, with the highest moisture content
late Monday and through Tuesday. With the forcing and moisture
remaining in place, additional scattered to numerous showers are
anticipated for along the mountains, with the greatest coverage
still along the San Juan Mountains given favorable wind
orientation. Like Monday, confidence is fairly high (70-80%) in
an additional 0.5-1.5 inches of QPF in the San Juan Mountains
late Monday into mid Tuesday given strong agreement between
model guidance. Elsewhere though, and for late Tuesday through
Wednesday, lesser amounts are anticipated. Snow levels will also
again remain relatively high, around and above 12,500ft, so
most of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain, with
another round of slushy snow along the mountain peaks. Given the
precipitation amounts, and highly saturated soils from the
weekend system, localized flooding will still be possible late
Monday through mid Tuesday, though like Monday, the snowfall
will likely limit this threat some when compared to this past
weekend. Beyond all of that, isolated to scattered showers are
still expected across the valleys as they push to the northeast
off of the higher terrain. As for the plains, precipitation
chances are likely to increase and peak late Monday through mid
Tuesday, as a vort max ejects over the area, helping to spark
additional showers across this area. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies will continue, with winds becoming more breezy, especially
Wednesday ahead the troughing as it starts to push eastward. As
for temperatures, a warming trend is expected, particularly for
the plains, with near to above seasonal temperatures for many.

Thursday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the start of
the next weekend, a pattern change is anticipated, though with
periods of active weather continuing. The troughing that stayed to
the west of the area early in the week will finally start to push
eastward and across the area. Confidence is high (70%) in this
pattern change given strong agreement between ensemble model
guidance. Overall, forcing will increase as this feature pushes
over, though with drier air filtering in behind the initial push
eastward. While forcing will remain elevated, shower coverage is
expected to lessen areawide given the drier air. Still though,
coverage will be highest along the mountains where forcing will be
greatest. Outside of that, periods of partly clouds and relatively
light winds is anticipated for the region. As for temperatures, a
drop down back to around seasonal values is expected as the
troughing pushes over.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

KCOS and KPUB...

VFR conditions likely next 24 hours. A cool front will move
across the two taf sites early this evening, shifting the winds
to a northeasterly component. Prior to the fropa, winds will be
from a westerly component, in the 10 to 20kt range. gusty
northeasterly winds will be possible after fropa, especially at
KPUB later this evening

KALS

VFR conditions through sunrise. Another round of rain and lower
cigs will be possible tomorrow morning as another surge of
tropical moisture moves into the KALS region.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH