084
FXUS65 KPUB 180246
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
846 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions once again across the San
  Luis Valley on Tuesday.

- Cooler and unsettled on Wednesday. Showers expected with
  somewhat lower thunderstorm chances.

- Unsettled weather and warmer temperatures continue Thursday
  onwards. Chances for storms vary each day, depending on
  instability and shear.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Quick update to the forecast database due to the expiration of
the Red Flag Warning for today. Red Flag Warning will remain in
effect for tomorrow for Fire Zone 224, the San Luis Valley.
Incorporated latest HRR and RUC model data as well as
observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Latest radar imagery depicting some isolated thunderstorm
development across the far eastern plains, mainly along and east
of a Lamar to Eads line. These storms are developing right
along the dry line, where upper 50s dew points and CAPE values
up 2000 j/kg are in place. Shear is not overly high but this
focus along with steeper lapse rates has supported a few robust
cells this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon, think
a couple more strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible right along the CO/KS border, before this development
shifts east. Given the high DCAPE, think winds up to around 60
mph will be possible with any strong/severe storm. Elsewhere
across the area, hot, dry, and windy conditions will continue to
support critical fire weather conditions through this evening
with no change to the current Red Flag Warning in effect.

Cold front arrives later tonight into early Tuesday morning,
providing some relief to the heat and increases in RH values
over most locations across southern Colorado. Did lower temps on
Tuesday but its possible they will need to be lowered more.
Fire danger lowers on Tuesday but with dry and windy conditions
still in place across the San Luis Valley, think critical fire
weather conditions will once again be likely. So, have issued a
Red Flag Warning for Tuesday. Precip chances are low on Tuesday,
but its possible there could be some isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the far southeast plains out ahead of the
front. If a storm were to develop, would not be out of the
question for there to be a strong to severe storm as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Wednesday-Thursday...

Post-frontal airmass lingering Tuesday evening into Wednesday will
set us up for a more active late-week, due to plentiful ambient
moisture and increased cloud cover. Looking aloft, an upper trough
will continue to deepen over the west coast while southwest flow
over our area continues in increase. High temperatures on Wednesday
will be much cooler than the previous several days, with mainly 70s
across our forecast area. Meanwhile, the breezy southwest flow aloft
will bring some orographic lift into our higher terrain, while
easterly upslope over the plains will help enhance precipitation
chances along the mountains/plains interface. Our severe chances
will be largely dependent on stability, which the cooler
temperatures and morning cloud cover may work against. Current
expectations are for showers to initiate over the higher terrain and
parts of the eastern plains, with a few rumbles of thunder, with
any thunderstorms that do form likely staying sub-severe.

Precipitation chances persist into Thursday as temperatures increase
into the high-80s, low-90s. This will give us some better
instability, though with mid-level flow weakening and becoming a bit
more disorganized, shear may be a limiting factor in thunderstorm
longevity. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon hours, mainly over and near the higher terrain.

Friday Onwards...

As we move into late week and into the weekend, southwesterly flow
aloft will continue as some moisture from the Gulf is advected into
our area. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase across both the mountains and plains through the rest of
this forecast period. High temperatures will increase, climbing back
into the 90s over most of the eastern plains. Additionally, an
embedded upper wave will be passing through the flow overhead,
leading to enhanced lift Friday afternoon and evening and higher
thunderstorm chances. Current model guidance shows CAPE near or
under 1000 J/kg with 30+ knots of bulk shear across the eastern
plains by evening. These wet and unsettled conditions will last
until close to the end of the weekend, when models hint at a new
upper-level ridge starting to build in over our region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Gusty winds this afternoon will lessen heading into the
evening, and remain relatively light overnight, with winds then
increasing again by late morning to early afternoon tomorrow.
Otherwise, dry conditions with mostly clear skies are anticipated,
with some mid to high clouds developing tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE