266
FXUS65 KPUB 132031
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
231 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot again Monday, with a slight upturn in shower/thunderstorm
  coverage across the mountains.

- Front arrives Monday night, bringing much cooler weather and
  greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

- Seasonal temperatures with widespread showers and
  thunderstorms then expected each afternoon and evening from
  Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms already underway over the southern
Sangres and srn I-25 corridor early this afternoon, with more
isolated activity just beginning to develop over the remainder
of the higher terrain. For the rest of the afternoon into the
evening, expect isolated to scattered convection over the
mountains and interior valleys, while some isolated storms will
be possible over the sern plains, mainly in Baca/ern Las Animas
Counties. Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall the
main storm threats, and will have to watch the Willow Burn Scar
for potential heavier rainfall, as several CAMs show rather
extensive t-storm coverage over the central mountains late this
afternoon into the evening. Suppose we could get a quick, windy
shower/t-storm along the I-25 corridor through Pueblo up into
Colorado Springs, though coverage looks isolated at best.
Overnight, initial wave of convection dies out toward sunset,
then many models show redevelopment over the mountains
(especially back toward the Continental Divide) after midnight,
so will maintain some relatively high pops here into Mon
morning.

On Monday, flow aloft increases as strong s/w trough moves
through the nrn Rockies. Not much increase in pwat across the
area through the day, as deeper moisture remains just south over
NM. Thus expect lingering morning convection to diminish by
midday as wave supporting it moves out the the region, before another
round of mainly scattered showers/storms develops over the
mountains in the afternoon, drifting into the I-25 corridor for
the evening. Lee surface trough on the plains may end up
forcing a few storms as well, especially along and east of a
Trinidad/Las Animas/Eads line. Downslope flow should boost max
temps a bit, and went with temps on the higher side of the
blended guidance envelope, especially on the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Nrn Rockies wave will push a strong cold front south through the
area Mon night, with boundary near the NM border by Tue morning.
Much cooler air mass will cover the plains during the day Tue,
with max temps 15-20 degf cooler than Mon at many locations.
Over the mountains, slightly more moisture rotates north out of
NM into the area, so expect an upturn in shower/thunderstorm
coverage over much of the high terrain and interior valleys by
afternoon. On the plains, air mass may be too cool/stable for
much convection during the day, then increasing chances for
showers/storms Tue evening as mountain convection moves e-ne,
and storms along the old cold frontal boundary just south of the
border potentially shift newd as well.

Nice monsoonal tap of moisture develops Wed-Sat, with strong
trough along the West Coast and upper high over the southeastern
U.S. Expect widespread showers/thunderstorms each day through
the period, with heavy rainfall threat increasing, especially
over area burn scars. May start to see some drying on Sun as
western trough moves east and deeper moisture is shunted
eastward, though refreshed post-frontal upslope behind potential
weekend cold front may keep storms going over at least the ern
mountains and plains. Temps will drift back back upward a few
degf Wed-Fri, before potential cold front drops readings back
below average for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB the next 24
hrs.

Enough of a risk of a tsra at KALS to include a prob30 from mid
afternoon into the early evening, with gusty outflow winds over
30 kts and brief rain possible. Prevailing winds will remain
out of the s-sw into the evening.

At KCOS and KPUB, breezy se winds expected this afternoon, with
a few gusts 20-25 kts possible. Low chance (less than 20
percent) of a weak -tsra near both terminals this afternoon and
early evening, though confidence is too low to include in the
taf at this point. Winds will then weaken overnight and into
early Monday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN