438
FXUS65 KPUB 140729
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
129 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last hot day today, cooling off for Tuesday and through
  the end of the work week after a cold front arrives.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage, especially
  Wednesday through Friday, with increasing flash flood risk on
  area burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Currently...upper level energy moving northeast across southern
Colorado will continue to produce areas of rain showers through
Monday morning. Most of the shower activity will remain confined
to the higher terrain, but a few light showers will be possible
across the Plains, mainly south of Highway 50. A couple claps of
thunder may also be possible through the overnight hours.
Temperatures remain warm with 60s and 70s for the lower
elevations, with a few degrees of cooling expected through
sunrise. Breezy conditions will continue through the overnight
hours across the far Eastern Plains, with gusts near 25 mph
through daybreak.

Today and tonight...an upper trough will be passing across
Montana and into the Northern Plains through tonight, while high
pressure remains anchored over the Southeast US. This will lead
to west-southwest flow across Colorado with an embedded upper
wave shifting across the state. As mentioned above, rain showers
will likely be ongoing this morning with the initial energy
overhead. A secondary embedded wave moves into the area this
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms increasing across the
higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide. The
HRRR is most aggressive with activity spreading east off the
Mountains and into the Plains by late afternoon. The NAMnest is
less aggressive with more isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Trended with the NAMnest and other CAM solutions with the more
isolated to scattered route this through this evening.
Thunderstorms that do impact the region will be capable of
lightning, gusty outflow winds near 45 mph and locally heavy
rainfall. If a storm should happen to move across one of the
fresh burn scars, flash flooding could occur.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue northeast across
the Plains, coming to an end overnight. The  will be across the
Continental Divide, where activity will likely continue through
much of the overnight period. On the Plains, a cold front will
arrive late tonight with southwest flow turning northerly behind
the cold front.

Temperatures today will continue to be hot, with mid 80s to mid
90s across the Plains and near 80s for the San Luis Valley. With
the cold front arrival, temperatures will cool off into the 50s
to near 60 across the Plains, and 40s for the San Luis Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Models remain in good agreement through the end of the work
week, with differences by the weekend. For the most part, the
upper pattern will favor high pressure to our southeast, and an
upper low over the Pacific Northwest with persistent southwest
flow across Colorado.

Tuesday...a cold front will have arrived by Tuesday morning
across the Plains, with low level flow turning northeasterly
through the morning, and southeasterly by the afternoon. This
will help keep moisture pooled along the higher terrain, and
weak instability is expected by the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop initially across the higher terrain,
and spread east int o the Plains during the evening hours. PWAT
values increase slightly on Tuesday, with stronger storms able
to produce heavier rainfall, with an elevated flash flood risk
on area burn scars. Lightning and outflow wind gusts in excess
of 40 mph will also be possible. Overall, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will be increasing on Tuesday across the
Mountains, and weaken as they move out into the Plains due to a
lack of instability. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the
front, with most areas in the 70s for highs!

Wednesday through Friday...flow turns more southerly aloft as
the upper trough drop south along the West Coast. PWAT values
continue to increase, with values in excess of an inch forecast
across the Plains by Wednesday, and prevailing into Friday.
Multiple upper waves embedded in the flow will lift across
Colorado, with several rounds of heavier showers and
thunderstorms expected. Flash flooding potential on area burn
scars will increase, especially Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will warm slightly, with mostly 70s and 80s across
the Plains. By Friday, the upper trough lifts across the
Northern Rockies with one last good day of shower and
thunderstorm activity across the area.

Saturday through Monday...the upper trough continues into the
Great Lakes through the weekend, with upper level ridging
moving across Utah and into Colorado. Drier air will move into
the region with the upper ridging with shower and thunderstorm
activity decreasing, to just isolated to scattered activity over
the Mountains by Sunday and Monday. It should be noted, that
model differences arise by next weekend, with lower confidence
in the overall pattern. Temperatures will remain nearly steady
with 70s and 80s across the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An uptick in convection is expected across the higher terrain and
adjacent plains over the next 24 hrs as monsoon moisture continues
to stream up across the Four Corners and into CO. Overall, VFR
conditions are anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS, but with some caveats.

KALS: Pcpn will likely linger along the CONTDVD overnight, so will
mention a PROB30 for -SHRA between 11z and 16z. By 17z VCTS is
expected, then mentioned PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts to 30
kt from 18z to 24z. Afterwards for the remainder of the forecast
period, showers will likely remain in the vcnty.

KCOS: Mentioned wind shear now through 15z due to stronger SW winds
just off the deck, while surface winds remain lighter and easterly.
Included PROB30 mention for -TSRA and variable gusts to 28 kt from
20z to 01z this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE