734
FXUS65 KPUB 211130
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight increase in precipitation chances today, then
  widespread shower and storm activity from Wednesday through
  the weekend. Flash flood concerns increase for area burn
  scars.

- Temperatures will remain hot throughout the extended forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Currently...Another fairly quiet night across the forecast area,
with just a slight increase in shower and storm activity across the
central mts. Skies are for the most part mostly clear, with just
some lingering clouds along the Continental Divide and westward.
Given how hot it was today, it should be a warm night tonight with
overnight lows in the 50s to near 60F for the high valleys, and 60s
to near 70F for the plains.

Today and Tonight...Very little change to the model solution over
the past few days, at the risk of sounding like a broken record.
Upper high pressure ridge axis shifts edges to the east today,
opening the door for increasing moisture up across the Four Corners
and Great Basin, while at the same time a weak "cold" front drops
down the eastern plains this morning. As surface winds shift east
through the morning, a slight increase in llvl moisture will push
west towards the I-25 Corridor and eastern mts. This, combined with
the increasing moisture across western Co, should mean isolated
convection developing by midday for the higher terrain and I-25
Corridor, becoming more scattered by late afternoon into early
evening. The far eastern plains will likely remain dry.

As precip chances go up, so does the concern for flash flooding
potential across area burn scars - a reoccurring threat that will
persist through the extended forecast period. Feel that both the
Willow and the Aspen Acres Fires will need to be monitored closely
by late afternoon into the evening. Forecast QPF continues to be
unimpressive today, but all it takes is one slow-moving storm. Plan
on highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the high valleys, and mid
90s to lower 100s for the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Temps are forecast to remain hot through the extended period, with
models indicating that Thu and Fri will be slightly "cooler" days.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge axis remains along the eastern
border of CO on Wed, then the high pressure centroid shifts back
westward on Thu. A rather strong upper shortwave tracks across the
Great Basin on Wed and rides the crest of the ridge, across the
Rockies on Thu. This feature corresponds nicely with the model 1000-
500 mb RH fields, which indicate a healthy slug of moisture sweeping
across the region. This will be the trigger and the fuel for more
widespread convection across all of the higher terrain both days,
with scattered to even likely activity spilling onto the plains as
well. Flash flooding threat for area burn scars increase
significantly for these days, and a Flash Flood Watch may be deemed
necessary. Look for highs Wed very similar to today, with 80s to
around 90F for the high valleys, and mid 90s to low 100s for the
plains. Increased cloud cover on Thu should help knock a couple
degrees off the max temp, with 80s for the high valleys and 90s for
the plains.

Friday...The upper shortwave exits to the east Fri morning, then the
high pressure ridge builds back in overhead. Moisture trapped under
the high will fuel afternoon and evening convection once again, with
showers and thunderstorms likely across the higher terrain, and more
scattered in nature for the lower elevations. Plan on highs similar
to readings on Thu.

Saturday through Monday...The heat returns, as high pressure
overhead remains firmly in place. Moisture trapped under the high
will recirculate each day, fueling likely afternoon and evening
activity across the mts, and scattered elsewhere. Flash flood
concerns will continue, though it could be more spotty in nature.
Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the
next 24 hours. -SHRA/-TSRA could bring brief MVFR conditions
to the terminals, with the best chances of storms being at ALS
between 20Z-02Z. Otherwise, brief breezy northerly winds at
the terminals become more east to southeast through the
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW