194
FXUS65 KPUB 071115
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another cool and cloudy day is expected across our plains, with
continued sunny and breezy weather for the high country and the San
Luis Valley.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue, mainly over
  our southern mountains and southeast plains today and tonight.

- Warming and drying conditions will set in through the rest of the
week, with showers over the higher terrain.

- Wetter conditions still on tap for this weekend, particularly
  over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Currently..

Cool and cloudy condition persist for much of the plains.
Thundersnow is being observed over La Veta Pass (KVTP) as of 1AM,
with a few other spotty showers and thunderstorms making their way
over the southeast mountains and into the southern I-25 corridor.
Showers just south of our border are likely to continue to filter
into Las Animas and Baca counties early this morning as well. Low
clouds, mist, and some areas of drizzle have been observed off and
on throughout the night, and are expected to continue into the
morning hours, especially near the mountains/plains interface.
Temperatures are in the 40s and 50s on the plains, with 30s for our
mountain valleys. Dewpoints are in the 40s on the plains.

Today and Tonight..

Today will likely feel much the same as yesterday for a good portion
of the forecast area. For the plains, we`ll stay socked in with
clouds throughout much of the day, keeping our daytime highs around
15 to 20 degrees cooler than normal once again as upslope continues.
This will mean highs topping out in the 50s and low 60s once again.
Most areas will be similar or just a couple of degrees warmer than
where they were yesterday. Some fog and drizzle will be possible
near the mountains early this morning, especially over the Pikes
Peak region. More substantial showers are expected further south,
mainly through our southern mountains and southern plains. For the
high country this afternoon, continued mostly sunny skies are
expected, especially west of the Continental Divide. Winds will be
breezy, and showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
into the evening hours for the southern mountains. The San Luis
Valley will continue to be the warmest spot on the map with highs in
the 70s. Southerly winds will stay breezy for the valley today, but
are expected to be weaker than yesterday. Moisture has increased as
well, so fire weather conditions are not anticipated for the valley
today. Fog and drizzle will be possible again tonight as upslope
continues, though it will likely be more relegated to areas up close
to the mountains and the I-25 corridor. It is possible that
overnight lows could end up being cooler than currently forecast if
earlier clearing is realized, though models do not currently point
towards that solution. For now, similar overnight lows are expected
for tonight as what we saw last night/early this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Wednesday...

A broad upper-level ridge will continue building in over the region.
Our recent drying and warming trend will continue on Wednesday, with
highs climbing back into the 70s-80s across most of our CWA. Most of
the area will remain dry, with skies clearing throughout the day. A
few scattered showers will be possible across the western mountains,
and possibly the southern Sangres, thanks to a bit of Pacific
moisture moving up from the southwest.


Thursday Onwards...

The warming trend will continue into the latter half of the week,
with the upper ridge continuing to build overhead. High temps will
climb into the mid-80s over the plains, with the area remaining
generally dry outside of some scattered POPs in our western
mountains. As we move into the weekend, the high pressure to our
south will begin pushing more east, while a deep closed low moves
onto the west coast. Meanwhile, the remnants of a tropical cyclone
will push up the western coast of Mexico, injecting more moisture
into the synoptic flow. Beyond this point, model solutions begin to
diverge, handling the evolution of this complex pattern in different
ways. Overall, trends have shown for a cooler, wetter, and generally
more active weather period later this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities are
expected at both stations through much of the forecast period, as
easterly upslope continues across the region. LIFR conditions in
mist and low clouds are likely for a few hours from around 13Z
through 16Z early this morning at KCOS. VFR conditions will be
possible for several hours this afternoon at both stations,
mainly from 19Z through 01 at KPUB, and from around 21Z through
04Z at KCOS, before MVFR and IFR ceilings move back in through
the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with
scattered mid and upper-level cloud decks. Southwest winds gusting
to 22kt will be possible through the daytime hours, with continued
stronger southerly winds into the evening and overnight hours as
well.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR