643
FXUS65 KPUB 302347
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
547 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms possible today along the I-25 corridor and
  southeast plains with a lower, though non-zero, risk for flash
  flooding on area burn scars through this evening.

- Uptick in strong to severe thunderstorms across the southeast
  mountains and adjacent plains for Friday with greater chances
  for Flash Flooding for Aspen Acres Burn Scar where a Flash
  Flood Watch has been issued.

- Trending drier and hotter over the weekend into Monday when
  another round of Heat Advisories may become necessary.

- Cool front brings increased thunderstorm potential for the
  southeast mountains and plains on Tuesday followed by a slow
  uptick in monsoon moisture towards the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Precipitable waters have begun to decrease out west today,
though remain slightly above normal across the southeast plains
through this evening. Dew points have been trending down across
the mountains with readings falling into the 40s across the
western mountains and interior valleys vs lower 50s from
yesterday. Some of these lower dew points were spreading into
the adjacent I-25 corridor in Huerfano and El Paso county.
Overall, CAMS shows less thunderstorm coverage today vs
yesterday, though there will still be a risk for localized heavy
rainfall which could cause flash flooding, especially for burn
scars. Confidence of impacts on the burn scar are lower today,
so no Flash Flood Watch for today, but conditions will be
monitored as usual. Still dealing with a cap across the plains,
though with dew points in the 60s and projected CAPE off HREF up
to 1500 J/kg, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
will be possible as storms roll across the plains through this
evening. With a little less CAPE aloft, main risks may be near
severe winds, but can`t rule out some isolated hail nearing 1
inch in diameter through the evening.

Thunderstorms will shift eastward into KS with clearing skies
overnight. A cool front will drop through the southeast plains by
dawn.  Overnight lows will remain on the mild side, though lower
dew points out west will lead to some cooler overnight lows in
some of the interior cold pocket valleys.

Winds will shift from the east to northeast in the afternoon and
evening which will push higher dew points back westward into the
southeast mountains and plains. Drying continues out west and
far eastern plains, but precipitable waters actually subtly
increase across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains as
low level moisture pins up against the mountains. This will
yield some higher CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) along the southeast
mountains and I-25 corridor on Friday. With stronger storm
strengths, and adequate moisture for locally heavy rainfall,
opted to put up a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn
scar. Probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inches of rain are sitting
around 50-60% between the NBM and HREF means. With a little
stronger northwest flow, storm motions will be faster, but storm
tracks will be to the south southeast keeping thunderstorms tied
to the terrain. High res models are honing in on a 3 PM to 7 PM
window for possible flash flooding on Aspen Acres. Otherwise,
higher CAPE and stronger deep layer shear (30-35 kts) will
result in a marginal risk for strong to severe storms on Friday
with hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts to around 60 mph. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An overall drying and warming trend will return for the weekend into
Monday. There will still be some scattered thunderstorms across the
southeast mountains with isolated storms for the adjacent lower
elevations and I-25 corridor region.  But with surface dew points
and precipitable waters continuing to decrease, overall coverage
and storm strengths should decrease.

Sunday and Monday dry out and heat up.  Temperatures will top out
over 100 across the southeast plains, and portions of the area may
need heat advisories one or both days.  We could see some spotty
elevated fire weather conditions both days as humidities drop
below 15 percent. But wind gusts appear to stay under critical
thresholds for Red Flag criteria, so just hot and dry will be
the main story.

A passing trough along the northern CONUS tier will send a cold
front into the southeast plains on Tuesday and this will bring
another upswing in thunderstorm chances to the southeast mountains
and plains in post frontal upslope flow. Once again, strong
storms will be possible, bringing the risk of flash flooding for
the Aspen Acres burn scar.

The atmosphere gradually moistens through the end of the week as
modest monsoon moisture recirculates through the upper high
across the southwest U.S. Thunderstorm chances gradually
increase again over the mountains though best precipitation
chances stay across the eastern half of the area.  Dew points
take longer to rebound across the western mountains as flow
aloft stays northwesterly. Overall will maintain thunderstorm
chances every day, though suspect these will be less widespread
and less efficient rain makers across the central mountains
until we can get a more southerly monsoon tap back over the
region. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The forecast period is expected to be mostly on the drier side,
however, there are low chances for a brief shower or thunderstorm
this evening as well as very late in the period. For this evening,
have maintained the some mention of showers for COS, and kept the
prob30 for thunder at PUB. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
very late in the period, but given the time frame, have left out of
the TAFs at this time.

While only isolated showers and storms are occurring around the
terminals, several outflow boundaries are impacting COS and PUB.
Outside of any erratic winds owing to the precip, winds should
generally be out of the north northeast for COS and east northeast
for PUB. An increase in northerly wind speeds is likely at COS and
PUB early Friday morning, but with a diminishing trend through
Friday morning. Winds will generally be light at ALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ