429
FXUS65 KPUB 011121
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
521 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier northerly flow aloft will keep generally isolated
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances over and near the
  higher terrain early this week.

- Temperatures at to slightly above seasonal levels through the
  middle of the week.

- Isolated mountain showers expected midweek, with
  precipitation chances increasing for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicated modest north to northwest flow aloft across the region,
as upper level ridging across the Desert Southwest continues
to build into the Great Basin and Intermountain West, while short
wave energy digs down the backside of the ridge across the Upper
Midwest and Northern High Plains. GOES Blended Total Water Vapor
imagery has PWATS of 45-65 percent of normal across western Colorado
at this time, with PWATs running around 75-100 percent of normal
across south central and southeastern Colorado. Satellite imagery
and regional radars as of 1 am are indicating some lingering clouds
across the Southern Mtns and the San Luis Valley at this time.

For today and tonight, latest model data continues to support drier
air working into the region with continued northerly flow aloft
aloft. This will again lead to mainly isolated to widely scattered
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms mainly confined
to the higher terrain, with the greatest coverage expected across
the Southern mountains. Model soundings are indicating more inverted
v profiles with more gusty outflow winds expected than measurable rain.
well. Further east, soundings are also indicating capped profiles,
as temperatures aloft continue to warm. Passing wave across the
Northern High Plains this morning, sends a weak backdoor front across
eastern Colorado through the afternoon, with east to northeast winds
expected across the plains through the afternoon. This front will have
little affect on temperatures, with highs back to around seasonal levels
in the 80s across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher
terrain.  Any convection wanes through the early evening, with clearing
skies overnight, leading to near seasonal lows in the 50s across
the plains, and 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Models do indicate a slightly more northwest flow aloft on Tuesday, with
the potential for slightly better coverage of afternoon showers and storms
across the eastern mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will be at to
slightly warmer than Monday`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Tuesday Night - Thursday: For much of the week, relatively quiet
weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Northwesterly flow will be in place over the region as ridging sits
to the west and troughing to the east. While no major forcing is
expected, persistent orographic forcing will be in place with this
pattern. Along with that, modest moisture is anticipated to remain
in place, despite the northerly component to the flow. With some
forcing and moisture in place, isolated showers are expected each
afternoon, though mostly along the mountains where forcing will be
maximized. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for much of the
area through this timeframe. Beyond all of that, with modest flow,
winds are anticipated to remain relatively light, with clear skies
early each day giving way to partly cloudy skies during the
afternoons. Looking at temperatures, thanks to a cold front passage
around mid week, much of the region will hover around to slightly
below seasonal values for early September.

Friday - Sunday: Heading into the weekend, a pattern change is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically,
a shortwave is anticipated to push across the region during this
period, leading to increase forcing. Along with that, an uptick in
moisture is expected as southerly to southwesterly flow advects
better moisture over the area. With the increase in both forcing and
moisture, shower and thunderstorms chances are expected to increase,
but especially along the mountains where forcing will remain the
greatest. Outside of that, winds are expected to remain relatively
light, with an increase in cloud cover anticipated, especially
during the afternoons when any showers and storms will be most
prevalent. As for temperatures, much of the region will continue to
stay near to slightly below seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light through this
TAF period, around and less than 10 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions
with periods of mid to high level clouds is anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...SIMCOE