613
FXUS65 KPUB 122107
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
207 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue Thursday
  through Saturday.

- Next storm system moves in for late weekend into early next
  week bringing cooler temperatures and snow for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper ridge persists tonight and Thursday, with dry conditions
and warm temperatures continuing. Should be enough of a lee
surface trough overnight to keep east slope breezes going,
which will hold min temps up into the 40s along and west of
I-25. While mountain wave cloudiness will diminish overnight,
good amount of cirrus over the western U.S. moving toward CO
suggests bouts of at least high level overcast through the
night, especially after midnight. On Thursday, main question is
how warm will we get, as mid level thermal ridge is overhead and
weak downslope wly flow continues. Might be enough high level
cloud cover to keep maxes just below records, though could get
close at Colorado Springs, just short at Pueblo/Alamosa.

Records for Thu 11/13
Alamosa...........65f in 2017 Fcst...61f
Colorado Springs..75f in 2007 Fcst...74f
Pueblo............81f in 1999 Fcst...77f

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Long range models and ensembles have slowed down the eastward
progression of the upper low which is now set to affect southern
CO Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this, unseasonably warm and dry
conditions will continue as upper ridging on Thursday transitions
to southwesterly flow aloft by Saturday as the upper low now
remains off the southern CA coast through Sat evening. High
temperatures will climb into the 70s across the plains with 50s
and 60s for the lower mountain and valley communities, and 30s
and 40s across the high country. Bouts of mid/high cloudiness
will help to temper low temperatures, keeping them on the warmer
side of climo, especially where wave cloudiness and enhanced
westerly drainage winds into the lee side surface low sets up.

Snow spreads into the mountains a full 24 hours later than runs
showed last night as the cut off low meanders off the coast
before gradually filling and lifting to the northeast through
the western U.S. The track of the upper low has also lifted
considerably farther north with Canadian and its ensembles
being the more southern and slower tracking members of the long
range suite. Even the Canadian brings the closed low across CO
by 12z Mon while its ensemble mean along with the operational and
ensemble members of the EC and GFS are weaker, more open and
farther north with the system. This spells a lower confidence in
precipitation east of the mountains as the plains may be dominated
by downslope flow on the southern periphery of the system.
However, the eastern San Juans still have a shot and seeing some
moderate to possibly heavy snowfall accumulations, with snow
beginning Saturday night and continuing through Sunday night
before the flow aloft becomes northwesterly, shifting the best
orographic forcing into the central mountains for Monday.
Probabilities of heavy snow have increased in the NBM across the
southwest mountains with greater than 8 inch probabilities now
around 60% across the higher terrain, and even some near 50%
probabilities of seeing 12 inches or more. The remainder of the
mountains have considerably lower probabilities of seeing even 4
to 6 inches of snow (20-40% range with highest probabilities over
the central mountains). The plains stay largely dry now with a
trend towards a more northern track. Some showers will be possible
early Monday with the Palmer Divide and Pikes Peak Region most
likely to be impacted. There could be a window for snow levels to
drop across the Palmer Divide early Monday morning, but overall
this should be brief as the system is relatively warm. Given the
large run-to-run changes with the storm track, confidence is
still low on these details, especially east of the mountains.
Ensemble means still show a dampening system with a less amplified
and farther north storm track, which is what it showed yesterday
and leads one to maintain a healthy skepticism for some of the
slower/stronger tracks in the deterministic runs. Temperatures
will cool off for all areas, with highs in the 50s and 60s for the
plains, with 40s for the valleys and mid 20s to 30s for the
mountains.

The system pulls away to the east, but the pattern remains
active with more troughing developing across the west. Spread in
the long range models and ensembles remains quite large so will
stick with the NBM for now which suggests cooler temperatures
with some showers increasing across the mountains again towards
mid week.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with occasional periods of
bkn/ovc cirrus at all terminals. Winds will be light and follow
typical diurnal cycle.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN