687
FXUS65 KPUB 222310
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening, especially north of
  Highway 50, as a cold front drops south through the region.

- Cooler and more active weather this weekend and into early
  next week. Daily showers and storms are expected across the
  area and some stronger storms and flash flooding will be
  possible, especially Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Initial cold front slightly ahead of schedule this afternoon,
with boundary passing through Colorado Springs as of 2 pm,
roughly 2-4 hours ahead of earlier forecasts. Mountain
convection has become slightly more widespread this afternoon as
mid levels have begun to moisten, though surface layer remains
rather dry with dewpoints in the 30s over most of the higher
terrain. For the remainder of this afternoon into this evening,
cold front continues to move southward through the plains, with
low level moisture and instability increasing behind it as ne
winds advect higher dewpoints (upper 40s/mid 50s) into the
area. Models continue to indicate greatest instability (CAPE
1-2k J/KG) will end up across El Paso/Teller Counties, and
expect widespread thunderstorm activity there, especially in
the 4-7 pm time frame. Locally heavy rainfall the main hazard
with storms this evening, though some briefly severe
wind/marginal severe hail will also be possible under the
strongest storms. Over the mountains, scattered/weaker storms
will continue, slowly diminishing after sunset, though HRRR
hints at activity persisting until 06z over the central
mountains. On the plains, main question is southward/eastward
extent of evening convection, as most CAMs keep activity north
of Highway 50 until perhaps some weak showers form after
midnight as low levels slowly saturate. Will thus keep pops in
mainly the isolated/low end scattered range outside of El Paso
County.

On Saturday, main questions revolve around instability and
upward motion, as moisture continues to increase across the
area. Not much of the way of short wave energy to generate
upward motion, so most convection looks to be driven by orographic
lift over/near the higher terrain, with storms slowly drifting
e-se under nw flow aloft. CAPE looks sufficient for storms over
the mountains, where values are over 1000 J/KG, while across the
plains, combination of morning cloudiness and still rather warm
mid-levels keep CAPE below 1000 J/KG at most locations. Will
thus keep highest pops over the higher terrain and interior
valleys, with a sharp decrease in pops east of I-25. Locally
heavy rain the main threat, suppose a marginal/brief severe
storm will be possible over the mountains. Clouds and moisture
will know max temps downward, look to run  refreshing 10 degf
or so cooler than Friday`s numbers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The upper-high over the Four Corners Region will continue pushing to
the south, late this weekend and into early next week. Breezy
northwest winds aloft and embedded energy within the flow will work
to keep our cool and active pattern going through most of the long-
term forecast period. Over the mountains, incoming monsoon moisture
will pair with orographic lift to give us widespread showers and
thunderstorms. PWAT anomalies look to steadily increase Sunday
afternoon and onwards, giving us better moisture, more heavy rain,
and a higher risk of flash flooding. Will have to keep a close eye
on burn scars and other flood-prone areas, but will also need to
monitor areas with excessively saturated soils and low-lying urban
locations.

Meanwhile, models show an increase in jet speed just to our
northeast, with 30-40 knots of shear over the plains Sunday-Tuesday
afternoons. Low-level moisture, instability, and shear should all be
sufficient for some strong to severe storms over portions of the
eastern plains, but will have to narrow down specific impacts when
the high-res/CAMs start picking up on things better. Regardless, the
first half of next week will be on the busy side weather-wise.

Long-range models are in decent agreement on the placement of the
upper high, putting it down near Texas by midweek. This will allow
for a continued influx of monsoon moisture, potentially continuing
this cooler, wetter pattern towards the end of next week. High
temperatures will vary, but should generally stay in the mid 70s-80s
across the forecast area through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 458 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A cold front will produce gusty north winds at KCOS and KPUB
through 02-03z with gusts up to 35 kts. Winds will decrease at
both terminals and shift around from the east overnight. MVFR
to IFR stratus will develop at KCOS and KPUB towards 12z with
cloudy skies persisting through much of Saturday as cigs lift
back into the MVFR to low end VFR category. Thunderstorms on
Saturday are likely to stay over the mountains.

KALS will see VCSH through 01-02z before winds shift out of the
east at 15 to 25 kts. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
decrease overnight with winds becoming light. There will be a
better chance for -TSRA at the terminal Saturday afternoon and
have included this in a Prob30 group after 21z with erratic
gusty winds possible. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT