039
FXUS65 KPUB 161141
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moist southwest flow will bring waves of showers and thunderstorms
  through Thursday, with a heavy rainfall/flash flood risk for the
  mountains, especially the eastern San Juans.

- More westerly flow brings better chances for showers/storms to the
  eastern mountains/I-25 corridor and southeast plains Friday through
  Sunday.

- Potentially warmer and drier into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest southwest
flow aloft in place across the region, with a large upper high centered
across the Gulf Coast States, as an upper trough is digging across the
Pacific Northwest Coast at this time. GOES total precipitable water
imagery indicates abundant subtropical moisture in place from Old Mexico
into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin region, as well as the Southern
Rockies into the Central High Plains at this time. Regional radars are
indicating ongoing showers and storms western Colorado spreading across
the ContDvd, along with some showers lifting out across northeastern
New Mexico into the southeast plains early this morning.

For today and tonight, latest model data supports modest and moist
southwest flow continuing across the Central Rockies, with an embedded
wave lifting out across the Desert Southwest through the afternoon,
which continues across the Four Corners and western Colorado into
tonight. This will keep the best instability and forcing along and
west of the ContDvd through the period, with a few orographic showers
continuing along the ContDvd through the early morning hours, and
another round of widespread showers and storms expected late this
morning and afternoon, with storms continuing along and west of the
ContDvd through the overnight hours. With the abundant moisture within
the southwest flow, rounds of heavy rainfall are expected, especially
across the orographically favored San Juan mtns and into the Upper
Rio Grande valley, where a Flood Watch goes into effect at noon today,
and continues into Thursday night.

With the abundant moisture and modest instability expected, will see
another around of scattered to numerous showers and storms across the
rest of the higher terrain this afternoon and evening as well, with
moderate to at times heavy rainfall expected with the passing storms.
With that said, will need to monitor the recent Willow and Aspen Acres
burn areas for the potential for flash flooding, however, we continue to
not have enough confidence in said flooding to support to additional flood
watches for the burn areas at this time.

Further east across the I-25 Corridor and into the southeast Plains,
latest model data indicates mid level warming keeping convection capped
through the afternoon, with the best chances of storms popping along
a developing lee trough across the Raton Mesa into central portions
of the plains through the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Moist southwest flow aloft continues on Thursday, with the best forcing
remaining across the eastern Great Basin into western Colorado leading
around round of heavy rain expected along and west of the ContDvd once
again, with the Flood Watch remaining in place for the eastern San Juan
mtns and the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected once again for the rest of
higher terrain, with the potential for flash flooding if storms can move
across the recent burn areas. Further east, despite temperatures warming
into the upper 70s to upper 80s across the plains, latest models continue
to suggest mid level warmth to keep most convection capped through the
afternoon and evening.

For Friday and Saturday, flow aloft becomes more westerly as the Pac NW
upper trough translates across the Intermountain West and the Northern
Rockies through Saturday. While some drier air works across the region
within the westerly flow, there looks to be enough uvv with embedded
passing waves to support scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
showers and storms to all of south central and southeast Colorado, both
days.

There remains some differences in the amount of drying and location and
timing of the passing Northern Rockies wave for the weekend, with NBM
keeping cooler temperatures and good chances of showers and storms
across the area on Sunday and Monday, with potentially warmer and drier
conditions developing under a building upper level ridge into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain relatively light through this TAF period, with
winds remaining around and less than 10 knots. The greatest impacts
to the TAF sites may come from showers that develop later this
afternoon and evening, which could bring brief periods of lowered
visibility. Thunder can not be ruled out with this precipitation.
Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist through this TAF
period, with lowering of clouds late this afternoon and into
tomorrow morning.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected for a majority of this TAF period,
with MVFR conditions developing tonight. Mid to high level clouds
will persist through this TAF period, with lowering of clouds late
this afternoon and into tomorrow morning. As clouds lower, they are
expected to reach MVFR ceiling heights tonight. Otherwise, winds are
anticipated to remain fairly light through this TAF period, with
winds hovering around and less than 10 knots. Along with all of
that, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening, which could bring brief periods of heavy
rain, reduced visibility, and gusty outflow winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Thursday evening for
COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE