913
FXUS65 KPUB 181056
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
456 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have been issued for the
entirety of our plains tonight. Take steps to protect sensitive
plants and outdoor equipments today before subfreezing temperatures
arrive tonight!

- Near normal temperatures, sunny skies, and breezy north winds
  are expected across both the high country and the plains
  today.

- Gusty winds possible late Sunday night into Monday morning
  along the lee slopes. Frost possible over the Plains again
  Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Currently..

Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough continuing to slide off
to our east, which will eventually allow for more northerly and
northeasterly flow across the area later today. For early this
morning though, clear skies have been offset by increased mixing,
allowing us to stay slightly warmer than we were last night, and a
lot warmer than we are looking to be tonight. Most of the plains are
are still in the upper 30s and 40s as of 1 AM, and mountain valleys
are in the low to mid 30s as well. Dew points are in the teens and
20s over the high country, and 20s to 30s over the plains. Winds are
mainly westerly to northerly.

Today and Tonight..

Models suggest that the trough axis will be east of us in the next
few hours, and this seems reasonable given its location on satellite
early this morning. This will leave us in increasing northwesterly
flow throughout the day today, with clear skies and brisk northerly
winds that will become more northeasterly throughout the afternoon
and evening hours as the trough continues to push eastwards. Gusts
to 30 mph are likely through Pueblo and El Paso counties today, with
gusts closer to 35 mph likely over our far eastern plains.
Temperatures will be fairly similar to yesterday and rather close to
seasonal normals as well. This will mean highs in the mid 60s for
mountain valleys and El Paso County, with low to mid 70s for the
rest of our plains. Skies will be sunny. Apparent temperatures will
be slightly cooler given the breezy winds.

For tonight, our first Freeze is likely for much of our plains,
especially along and north of Highway 50, and along I-25. These are
areas are likely to see several hours of temperatures below 32
degrees early Sunday morning, and have been placed under a Freeze
Warning from 10 PM this evening through 9 AM Sunday morning. Eastern
Las Animas County and and Baca counties will not be quite as cold,
but have also been placed under a Frost Advisory through the same
timeframe, and can expect a few hours of near freezing temperatures
tonight. In both locations, outdoor plants and vegetation may killed
if left uncovered tonight, and unprotected outdoor plumbing may also
be damaged tonight as well. Take steps to protect sensitive plants
and outdoor equipment today before freezing temperatures arrive
tonight across all of our plains!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

No significant changes ot the extended period, with slightly
better agreement with the system Wed-Thurs next week.

Sunday...after a cold start, temperatures will warm well into
the 70s across the Plains. This is due to enhanced mixing as an
upper trough drop out of the Northern Rockies, and westerly flow
increases by the afternoon. Humidity values will fall to under
15 percent, however, winds will be slower to mix down and late
in the day. There could be spotty fire weather conditions this
afternoon, mainly in gap wind prone areas, but coverage and
duration are somewhat limited. Still, caution is advised with
outdoor burning activities in those wind prone areas.

Sunday night through Tuesday...model guidance is a bit further
west with the upper storm track, and puts the Palmer Divide
region in the westerly flow trough base, as opposed to glancing
northwesterly flow. Model guidance has increased winds along the
Eastern Mountains and lee slopes late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The shear structure is very forward, and should help
limit wave activity. That being said, an occasional gust near 50
mph may be possible along the lee slopes heading into Monday
morning. These winds will also keep overnight lows on the warmer
side, with mid slope areas in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while
the rest of the Plains sees 40s for lows. By Monday, the main
upper trough will shift well to our east and send a cold front
across the Plains by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures look to
be slightly cooler, with lower to mid 70s across the lower
elevations. Winds will increase behind the front late in the
day, and shift northerly. A few gusts near 40 mph may be
possible out near the Kansas border. Winds look to subside
overnight, as the upper system continues east, and upper ridging
moves into Colorado. Temperatures will likely fall overnight
into Tuesday morning, with another frost or freeze possible.
Again, those with sensitive plants, exposed hoses and pipes may
want to consider taking precautions to protect them. The upper
ridge axis will shift east across Colorado on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be cooler, with mainly 60s across the region
for highs.

Wednesday through Thursday...models in better agreement on the
storm track, bring an upper low from the Desert Southwest across
Colorado. There does continue to be differences timing.
Scattered rain and high elevation snow showers will move into
the Continental Divide by Wednesday afternoon. The upper system
then forecast to track east across Colorado and into Kansas on
Thursday. Low chances for showers will be possible across the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, before precipitation
comes to an end Thursday evening. The GFS remains the fastest
solution, ending precipitation earlier, while the ECMWF and
Canadian are a bit slower and hang on the precipitation longer.
Temperatures in the NBM guidance likely a bit warm, with highs
in the 60s and 70s, and they will likely need to be adjusted.
Snow levels will remain high, with minor accumulations above 10
kft.

Friday and Saturday...upper level high pressure will fill in
behind the departing system, with a return to dry and mild
conditions heading into next week.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light through the rest of
the early morning hours, with gusty northerly and northeasterly
winds throughout this afternoon. Skies will be clear through the
period and visibility is expected to remain unrestricted.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ084>089-093-095>098.
Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ094-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR