042
FXUS65 KPUB 290529
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
  tomorrow, mostly across the eastern plains.

- Thunderstorm chances gradually decrease through from Sunday
  into early next week, with a slow return of warmer and drier
  weather developing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Updated precipitation chances overnight based on the latest
radar trends and 00z high-res model guidance. A areas of showers
and embedded thunderstorms continues across the Pikes Peak
Region as of 9 PM. This activity will continue track east
through midnight. Stronger storms up near I-70 will track south
this evening, but looks to diminish in strength as it does so.
Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the lower eastern slopes
of the southeast mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon. Moist
southeast upslope flow beneath modest westerly winds aloft has
resulted in deep layer shears around 40 kts this afternoon. Combined
with dew points maintaining in the 50s, this will result in 1000-
1500 J/kg of mlCape, adequate for an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm or two, especially if they can maintain as they move
eastward into richer low level moisture and higher CAPE.  Hail up to
around 1 inch and wind gusts to around 60 mph will be the primary
storm risks, along with locally heavy rainfall capable of producing
flash flooding for areas with saturated soil conditions.  As
southeasterly low level flow increases overnight, CAMs have been
persistent in developing another round of thunderstorms across the
Pikes Peak region/southern I-25 corridor north of highway 50, and
dropping it southeastward across the plains during the late evening
and overnight. Cells should be elevated but could see an embedded
strong storm or two given MUCapes up to 750 J/kg according to HREF.
Activity should gradually decrease into the early morning hours and
depending on where the rain falls, we could see some patchy ground
fog should we see enough cloud breaks.  Models hold on to quite a
bit of mid/high level cloudiness overnight, so think this will be
very patchy in nature if it does develop.

Friday will be a more active day for thunderstorms with a more well
defined shortwave moving across during the afternoon along with
maintenance of low level southeasterly flow resulting in Mean HREF
CAPEs of up to 1500 J/kg.  Deep layer shears will be 40-50 kts
resulting in the possibility of one or two supercells with hail up
to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts over 60 mph. High res
models show another line of thunderstorms (more consolidated than
today`s) developing over the mountains during the early afternoon,
and pushing eastward across the plains during the late afternoon and
evening. Activity will diminish during the mid to late evening as
the shortwave exits the eastern part of the state. High temperatures
will remain below average with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Friday night and Saturday...

Many model solutions suggests showers/isolated thunderstorms
linger for much of Friday night, especially on the plains, and
will keep at least low pops going into Saturday morning along
and east of the mountains. On Saturday, could be some patchy low
clouds and fog early, though many forecasts show a weak north
wind around 12z, which should limit areal extent of any
cloudy/foggy conditions. Slightly drier air begins to work into
the area from the west Saturday afternoon, and we will likely
see a decrease in convective coverage over the mountains along
the Continental Divide, though still some isolated activity
possible. Eastern mountains and plains retain plentiful moisture
Saturday afternoon and evening, and expect the usual round of
convection firing over the higher terrain early/mid afternoon,
then moving e-se though the plains by evening. Should be enough
instability (CAPE 1000-1500 j/kg) and shear (0-6km bulk shear 40
kts) for strong storms from I-25 eastward once again, though if
cool air from Friday night convection lingers on the plains
longer than currently forecast, storms could struggle to
maintain strength as they move away from the higher terrain.

Sunday Onwards..

Moisture continues to decrease over the region Sun-Tue, which
should reduce storm coverage and intensity all areas through the
period, though we`ll likely recycle enough moisture for
scattered afternoon convection each day, especially over the
mountains. Could see a uptick in storms along the NM by late Mon
into Tue as moisture spreads back north, though with deepest
moisture staying south of the area, threat of heavy rain and
stronger storms appears limited. High temps will slowly climb
back toward seasonal levels early next week, though no extreme
heat is expected. Upper ridge builds over the wrn U.S.
middle/end of next week, while deep trough builds over the
eastern half of the country. Pattern should lead to another cold
frontal passage through CO mid-week (Wed-ish), bringing cooler
air back to at least the plains and ern mountains. Enough
moisture will remain in place for daily thunderstorm chances
over the mountains through the week, with a few storms slipping
eastward onto the plains late Wed onto Thu, helped along by
post-frontal easterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at the terminal.
Southwest to west winds near 10 to 12 kts are forecast for Friday
afternoon.  A few showers are possible across the San Luis Valley,
but confidence in one hitting the terminal is low.

KCOS and KPUB...a few low clouds are forecast at KCOS overnight,
near 1 kft.  These will likely prevail into Friday morning.  CIGS at
KPUB look to remain near 6 kft into Friday morning.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected at both terminals after around 20z, and
prevail into the evening.  Reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty
outflow winds will be possible with any storms that move across the
terminals. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY