501
FXUS65 KPUB 172325
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fewer storms this afternoon, with dry and hot conditions Tuesday.
Storms will mostly stay near the Raton.

- Cold front moves in Wednesday, with strong to severe storms for
the plains and flash flood risks.

- Daily shower/storm chances will continue the rest of the week,
  with hotter temps moving in this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Storms will be far fewer in number this afternoon, with a general
lack of strong large-scale forcing. Best chances for convection will
continue along and near the Raton Mesa and southern Sangres this
afternoon/evening, where low-level moisture and some weak orographic
lift will be present.

Latest surface analysis does show a bit of CIN along I-25, but 1000-
2000 J/kg of CAPE, though not much shear. A few showers have already
initiated over the mountains as of 1pm, with the latest CAMs
indicating a few pulsey thunderstorms before the end of the
afternoon.

Tuesday...

The upper ridge will continue building in across the region, with
much less low-level moisture remaining. Temperatures will warm, with
highs in the upper-80s over the plains, and 90s to around 100F over
the eastern plains. A few thunderstorms may be possible in the
afternoon thanks to diurnal heating, mainly over the central
mountains and the Pikes Peak Region, but anything that does manage
to form will be high-based and generally on the weaker side.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A cold front will move into the area, Tuesday Night into early
Wednesday morning. This will bring a quick return of low-level
moisture, shear, and forcing. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop by early afternoon on Wednesday, with greatest focus
along the mountains/plains interface, though scattered activity is
still expected across the rest of the higher terrain. Some areas
over the plains could be seeing 40+ knots of shear during the
afternoon, and between that and the incoming moisture, some strong
to severe storms will be possible with large hail, damaging winds,
and flash flooding all on the table.

For the latter half of the week, models remain consistent with
strengthening the high pressure over the Four Corners, slowly
shifting the pattern east through the end of the week and into this
weekend. Multiple embedded waves, and some lingering monsoon
moisture, will allow for daily rounds of showers and storms across
portions of the area. The majority of afternoon convection will
remain tied to the mountains, though some isolated activity could
move onto the eastern plains as well, quickly dissipating in the
evening hours. Also still looking at a general warming trend,
especially over the plains, where high temps may hit 100 degrees in
place by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds late this afternoon will steadily lower as mixing
lessens, and remain light, less than 10 knots, through tomorrow
morning. Winds are then expected to increase some again tomorrow
afternoon as mixing establishes, with winds around 10 knots, and
occasional gusts to around 20 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions with
periods of high level clouds is anticipated through this TAF period.
Along with all of that, a cold front is expected to push southward
right near the end of this TAF period, with greatest impacts for
KCOS and KPUB, as winds quickly shift out of the north and winds
increase behind the front.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE