562
FXUS65 KPUB 022320
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong north winds and showers/isolated t-storms on the plains
  into this evening, perhaps some snow showers along the Palmer
  Divide overnight.

- Generally dry and breezy on Tue, strongest winds early in the
  day on the plains.

- Weak trough will bring scattered showers Wed into Wed night,
  early weekend system continues to look rather weak with just
  isolated showers over the mountains Fri night.

- Flooding will continue into mid-week along many waterways in
  the San Luis Valley, especially along the Conejos River and
  also the Rio Grande from Alamosa upstream.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Surface/mid level low pressure was located over sern CO early
this afternoon, with nice area of post frontal deformation
wrapping southward around the low across the I-25 corridor and
southeast plains. Have even seen a few lightning strikes with
heavier embedded precip, especially along and south of the
Arkansas River where north winds were providing a little
upslope boost to vertical motion and precip development. Precip
has been mostly rain, though some occasional snow has mixed in
over Teller County above 8000 feet. Farther west, scattered
rain/mtn snow showers were gradually diminishing over the
mountains and interior valleys, and expect precip here to
continue to taper off into the evening. On the plains/I-25,
already seeing signs of downslope drying in latest radar loop,
with precip beginning to diminish and weaken from Pueblo
northward into El Paso County. Expect this trend to continue
through the afternoon into the evening, with bulk of precip
ending up south of the Arkansas River by sunset as low pulls
away and nly downslope increases. Brisk north winds then
continue overnight into Tue morning, with precip gradually
fading away at most locations, though HRRR suggest a few showers
may redevelop along the Palmer Divide and near the KS border
after midnight, lingering into early Tue morning. Precip could
mix with or change to snow around Monument/Black Forest
overnight, though expect any snow accumulations to be light
given temps in the mid 30s.

On Tuesday, skies become mostly sunny by afternoon as
clouds/precip shift east of the area. Still breezy/windy on the
plains especially in the morning, with north winds gusting over
30 mph in the morning, then gradually diminishing from west to
east during the afternoon. Max temps will remain rather cool
despite the sun, with readings near/slightly below seasonal
averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Weak upper wave sneaks through the central Rockies late Wed into
Thu morning, bringing widespread but generally light showers to
many locations, heaviest Wed night. Precip amounts will be under
a quarter inch, but with snow levels falling toward 7000 feet
by Thu morning, higher terrain locations could see a quick inch
or two of snow before precip ends. Generally dry/mild weather
then returns from Thu afternoon into Fri, before another weak
wave brings back a few mountains showers Fri night/Sat morning.
Weekend now looks dry and warmer as swrn upper ridge builds and
main trough axis shifts eastward into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 420 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

KALS: MFR conditions will last into tonight, with passing showers in
the valley steadily decreasing. Winds will gust to around 20 knots
this evening as well, weakening overnight and remaining mostly out
of the NW. Clouds return to VFR conditions by Tuesday morning.

KCOS: gusty north winds, MVFR clouds, and passing showers will
continue for a few hours this evening. Showers will depart the area
by 02Z or so, and clouds should raise back towards VFR, but gusty
north winds will continue through the night, 25-30 knots. After
another brief chance for showers early Tuesday morning, MVFR and
breezy winds will continue through the end of this forecast period.

KPUB: Gusty north winds and persistent clouds will continue into
Tuesday. By late Tuesday morning, winds should weaken a bit with
lowering cloud ceilings, though VFR to high-MVFR is expected to
remain. Chances for any more rain are too low to include in this
round of TAFs. Winds weaken Tuesday afternoon, with decreasing cloud
cover by late afternoon into early Tues evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Any additional precip today and this evening over the San Luis
Valley and upstream will be light, with precip amounts of only a
tenth of an inch or so expected. A weather system Wed will
bring back rain/snow showers, though precip amounts will be
light, generally under a quarter inch.

Regarding river levels, the South Fork of the Rio Grande at
South Fork has crested and will continue to fall today/Tue. The
Conejos River near Mogote will crest at major flood level this
afternoon, then begin falling tonight into Tue. Flooding on the
Conejos will continue downstream from Mogote to the confluence
with the Rio Grande today through Tuesday. The Rio Grande at Del
Norte has crested and will fall below flood stage Tue, while
the Rio Grande at Monte Vista will continue rising, cresting at
moderate flood stage Tue morning, then falling late Tue into
Wed. At Alamosa, the Rio Grande will begin to rise tonight,
reaching flood stage on Wed.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN