729
FXUS65 KPUB 010653
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1253 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall and flash flooding concerns will last into the
day on Thursday. Flash flooding remains the primary impact concern.

- Gusty winds to around 40 mph expected over the eastern plains
early in the day.

- Drier and warmer this weekend into early next week.

- Occasional passing waves brings chances of precipitation for
  the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Widespread rainfall will remain in place overnight and into Thursday
morning, as a stacked low pressure system continues to push east-
northeast through our area. Flash flooding will continue to be a
concern, mainly over the Aspen Acres burn scar, but also across the
southeast plains, as some areas have already gotten around 3 inches
of rain and the ground is saturated. Rainfall rates will largely
remain light to moderate, though some heavier bands of precipitation
will be possible on the back side of the low as it moves out, mainly
just south of the Highway 50 corridor.

Looking ahead into the day, coverage of showers will start
decreasing, first over our western and northernmost mountains. By
afternoon, only isolated to scattered showers will remain over the
Palmer Divide and Pikes Peak Region, though more widespread rain
showers will likely persist south of Highway 50 until later in the
day. A few heavier showers will be possible over the SE plains
during the back-half of the day, with some embedded thunder as well,
though mainly just worried about brief periods of heavy rainfall and
more flash flooding concerns. With the upslope winds in place over
the plains as well, the Aspen Acres Burn scar will need to be
monitored as well, with some isolated showers lingering into the
afternoon. By this evening, most of the area will be free of
precipitation, with slowly clearing skies. Temperatures will be in
the 60s across the area today, with cool overnight lows in the 40s
out east, and in the 30s over the high valleys.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For Friday and this weekend, warmer and drier conditions are
expected. Upper ridging will build in over the western CONUS, with
weak west to northwest flow settling in over the Rockies. Expecting
nothing in terms of precipitation through the weekend, with
temperatures climbing back into the 70s to around 80. The upper
ridge looks to flatten by the middle of next week, making way for
some potential disturbances and some stronger winds. Temperatures
look to drop a few degrees, with some slightly higher chances for
precip over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: MVFR conditions are expected for the start of
this TAF period, with VFR conditions developing by late morning for
all three TAF sites. Thick low level clouds will be in place
tonight, within MVFR ceiling heights. These clouds will slowly
increase heading into the morning hours, and thin in coverage
through tomorrow afternoon. Rain showers may persist for KCOS and
KPUB overnight, which could bring brief periods of slightly reduced
visibility. Otherwise, breezy winds tonight will start to lessen by
late tomorrow morning, and become less than 10 knots near to end of
this TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon MDT today for COZ072>075-077>080-083-
086>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE