824
FXUS65 KPUB 281936
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
136 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Scattered to numerous storms expected TODAY and TOMORROW over the
region; Storms capable of heavy rain

- A few severe storms today, Flash flooding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

As of early afternoon, numerous storms already noted over the
CONTDVD region with scattered storms along the S mtns and Pikes Peak
region. 50+ dbz cores already noted in several storms. Dewpts higher
all areas with near 70 dwpts along US50 corridor over the plains
east of KPUB. Observed PWATs over the plains above 150 to 200% of
normal with 100-150% over interior mtns.

Main concern today will obviously be flash flooding over the burn
scars, especially the Aspen Acres burn area. Photos starting to show
mudflows in the central part of the AA burn scar and if we get a
strong storm, the potential for mud flows/flash flooding will be
high.

Additionally, any storm which moves slow/trains will have the
potential to produce flash flooding today

Decent cape of 1000-1500 and some very modest shear will allow for a
few lower end severe storms and a severe thunderstorm watch has been
issued for the plains generally along and north of US50.

The activity will become more organized over as the day progresses
and a line of storm should be note over the I-25 corridor by late
afternoon, moving slowly east as the evening progresses. The activity
should reach the KS border AOA midnight. SOme storms may linger
through the early AM hours of Wednesday, especially along the CO/NM
border.

For tomorrow, I anticipate a repeat performance of today as plenty
of moisture will be through the column as the monsoon plume
remains over the region and weak short waves will be moving over the
mid level ridge over the region. Flash flooding may be more of a
concern over a larger part of the region as todays precip will
likely start to saturate the soils over the region, and more heavy
rain coming down over a brief period of time could cause issues,
especially over the burn scars and urban areas. With less shear and
CAPE severe threat will be less.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For Thursday, anticipate it will be somewhat drier over the region
and storms this day will be more confined to the higher terrain,
with more isolated activity plains. Additionally, temps will start
to be on the increase once again.

Friday, a much more pronounced short wave will be moving down in the
NW flow aloft and winds throughout the column will be rather strong
as a jet streak will clearly be over the region. The mtns appear
drier this day so less convection over the higher terrain, but we may
see some organized severe storms over the eastern plains on this day.

Weekend into Monday...Hot. Any storms will be isolated and mainly
confined to the mtns.

Tuesday we may see cooler weather move in with a better chance of
precip. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will likely affect all of the taf
sites later this afternoon and last into the evening hours.
MVFR conditions will be possible with the storms as lower cigs
and especially vis will likely be affected as these storms will
be capable of heavy precip reducing the vis. Strong gust winds
will also be possible. The activity should begin roughly around
22 UTC and last until about 04 UTC. VFR thereafter.

Will likely refine tafs once the convection initiates and gets
closer to the taf sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH